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Election Day Roadmap: How the Swing State Results Will Roll in on the Way to 270

Chris Kofinis and Frank Luntz — Tue, 06 Nov 2012 06:00:00 EST

Well, here we are: Election Day.

After $2 billion in total campaign spending, three presidential debates, hundreds of campaign ads, and thousands of campaign appearances, the presidential race is ... wait for it ... a tossup.

Now, if Barack Obama wins tonight, it will be in part because the American people believe he understands their problems and those facing everyday Americans -- and because he spent months defining Mitt Romney with brutal advertising in Ohio. It will also be because the Romney campaign made several fundamental errors, including not doing enough to define their candidate earlier in the process and failing to reach out more effectively to women in their 30s and 40s, and Hispanics.

If Mitt Romney wins, it will be in part because he convinced enough people that he could solve Americans' day-to-day economic problems -- and because he crushed Obama in their first debate. It will also be because the Obama campaign believed that negatively defining their opponent was even more important than effectively explaining what Obama would do if he was reelected. And it will mean that Mitt Romney made a stronger case than Obama to independent voters that he could do a better job on the economy.

But enough campaign analysis.

You want to know who's going to win, so here's your hour-by-hour election roadmap. We're going to take you through the key states as they are decided, from East to West ... as they unfold. But before we get to the fun part, a word to the wise: Beware of early exit polls. They got it wrong in both 2000 and 2004, so be patient and wait for the actual votes to be counted before rejoicing or drowning your tears.

(Please Note: all times are EST, states with an * have multiple closing times, and the times listed below are the latest closing time and the earliest the networks will project an outcome)

6 P.M./7 P.M.: Indiana*

Indiana: The Hoosier state will be the first state to be called, Romney will win it, and will be the first state President Obama will lose that he won in 2008.

7 P.M.: Georgia, Kentucky*, South Carolina, Vermont, Virginia

Virginia: The polls close early here, but don't expect a decision until after 11 p.m. Last election, Virginia went blue (by 6%) for the first time in 40 years. Frank thinks Virginia ends up in the GOP camp this time -- but don't expect an early call. We both think this state leans ever so slightly to Romney, but Chris believes Obama has the late momentum and may just eke out a win. Virginians who live in the D.C. suburbs count their votes first, so the initial margin in favor of Obama should shrink as the night wears on. This is a state Romney must win if he's to be inaugurated in January. There isn't a realistic path for the Romney campaign to 270 without the Old Dominion in their column.

7:30 P.M.: North Carolina, Ohio, West Virginia

Ohio: No Republican has won the White House without winning Ohio. Obama's campaign understood this, and he blanketed the state early with blistering ads against Romney that went largely unchallenged and unanswered. The result: Romney's favorability in Ohio was among the lowest of all the swing states, and that's why he is tied with Obama nationally but still behind in Ohio.

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All that being said, polling Ohio -- not to mention the rest of the battleground states -- has proven difficult because no one can agree what the likely voter turnout will look like on Election Day. It's complicated by Obama's unusual strength in the Cleveland suburbs and in northeastern Ohio, where some of the auto plants reside. Romney is expected to do well for a Republican in Coal Country (southeastern Ohio). And if voting is super close, the race may not be called at all, because of thousands of provisional ballots that won't be counted for ten days.

Here's the bottom line: The Democratic areas report before the Republican areas, so be patient. Whomever is up after 80% is counted should be the winner -- just don't expect the answer until well after midnight. Oh, by the way, most people have forgotten that the exit polling in Ohio in 2004 incorrectly predicted a John Kerry victory. So, be careful about early celebration one way or another.

North Carolina. This should be the first of nine key swing states to declare, and we both believe Romney is poised to win here. He's been ahead in almost every poll, and he has a good ground game in the state. Even though the Dems held their convention in Charlotte, high unemployment and an unpopular Democratic governor have held Obama back.

8 P.M.: Alabama, Connecticut, Delaware, District of Colombia, Florida, Illinois, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Mississippi, Missouri, New Hampshire, New Jersey, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Tennessee*.

This is a make or break hour. Florida is another must-win for Romney, and, if Obama wins Ohio, New Hampshire will be crucial to Romney as well. All eyes will also be on Pennsylvania to see whether Romney's claims of a surge in his support there are accurate.

Florida: We believe Florida will go Romney. In the critical Orlando/Tampa I-4 corridor, recent polls show Romney leading, and since 1992, the I-4 corridor has correctly predicted the winner. Efforts to paint Romney as a threat to Medicare and Social Security have failed. Obama bet on Ohio to make his stand -- and it looks like a good bet.

New Hampshire: Mitt Romney will make his final stop of the campaign in Manchester, New Hampshire. That shouldn't be shocking -- Romney's roots run deep in New Hampshire -- yet the last poll there has the race tied. New Hampshire voters pride themselves on their independent-thinking. George W. Bush won it in 2000, but lost in 2004. His father won in 1988, but lost in 1992. This is a swing state that really swings. And it also counts votes fast. Expect the Granite State to be the second of the key swing states to be called. President Obama appears to have the upper hand there, but just barely.

Pennsylvania: The Keystone State often seems tantalizingly within reach for the GOP in September but always votes Democratic in November. It's like a siren temptress for Republicans. Romney is doing unusually well in blue-collar southwestern coal country and holding his own in the increasingly Democratic Philly suburbs. And his current positive ad blitz is being well received. One recent poll showed this race tied, and a few others have Obama up by only 3 points. Others show a wider spread. If turnout in Philadelphia is down, it is a bad omen for Obama. Realistically, we expect it to be closer than usual, but we both give the edge to Obama. But, if there is one surprise on election night, this may be the one.

8:30 P.M.: Arkansas

9 P.M.: Arizona, Colorado, Kansas*, Louisiana, Minnesota, Michigan, Nebraska, New Mexico, New York, South Dakota*, Texas*, Wisconsin, Wyoming

The Romney path to victory -- in the event of an Ohio loss -- has been dubbed "Wisconsin, Plus One." The "plus one" includes Nevada, Iowa, New Hampshire, or Colorado -- but it all starts with Wisconsin.

Wisconsin. A Republican hasn't won the presidential vote in Wisconsin since Reagan in 1984. This year, Obama leads by around 5% in most of the media polls, but the campaigns have the race closer. Word to the wise: Wisconsin polling has notoriously underestimated GOP turnout, and it's possible Wisconsin could surprise everyone on Election Day. They count really fast, so we'll have a pretty good idea of how close this race is. Just remember: if Romney loses Ohio, he has no shot if he doesn't win Wisconsin.

Colorado. Yet another must-win for Romney. Republican presidential candidates have won this state in 8 of the past 10 elections, though it has trended Democrat in recent years thanks to the influx of transported Californians. Polls show a dead heat, but in the early voting, Romney has the advantage. This state should break Romney's way, but his weakness with Latinos has made it very close.

Minnesota. This state is included on our run-down because the Romney campaign decided to spend money late here, and because the Romney-Ryan ticket visited the state in the crucial final 48 hours. But Minnesota has not voted for a Republican president since 1972 and isn't likely to break that pattern this year. Obama will win here.

10 P.M.: Iowa, Montana, Nevada , Utah.

Not many electoral votes here, but lots of important races. Stay in your seats. In this hour you'll have major announcements from several states, and you should have about 25% of the popular vote counted. But all eyes will be on Iowa and Nevada.

Nevada. At first look, Obama should be at a severe disadvantage in this battleground state whose economy is still suffering. But Romney has failed to overcome his terrible numbers among Latino voters, and the GOP's get-out-the-vote efforts in the state are notoriously weak. Frankly, close observers will be shocked if Romney wins here.

Iowa. Iowa's six electoral votes might not seem like a huge prize, but the Obama campaign considers them a crucial part of their Electoral College insurance policy should Romney pick off Wisconsin or Ohio. That's why Obama has been to the state 11 times this year and will wrap up his reelection campaign with a rally in Des Moines. (How ironic that Obama chose Iowa and Romney New Hampshire as their final campaign stops.) The president is protecting a small lead, but Romney has been gaining in the last month -- buttressed by a surprising endorsement from the Des Moines Register. Just remember: This state has voted Republican just once since 1984.

11 P.M.: California, Idaho*, North Dakota*, Oregon*

Hawaii closes at midnight and Alaska at 1 a.m. But if this race is close, don't expect to know whom the next president is by then. In fact, because there are a half dozen states that will be decided by 2% or less, we're expecting the first network election projection to come well after midnight -- and perhaps as late as around dawn Wednesday.

But no matter who emerges as our next President, let us all give thanks that our nation's transfer of power continues to be done peacefully, under the rule of law. And, regardless of whether Romney or Obama wins, let us hope that the next four years bring prosperity and civility back to America.

We need it ... badly.

Chris Kofinis is a Democratic strategist. Frank Luntz is a Republican pollster and strategist. AOL has an elections content partnership with Chris Kofinis and Luntz Global.

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Election Home Stretch: 5 Things to Watch for Before Nov. 6

Chris Kofinis and Frank Luntz — Wed, 31 Oct 2012 14:43:00 EST

Filed under: Elections, Barack Obama

With less than a week to go before Election Day, there are usually two or three clear indicators that one candidate has momentum and the other doesn't, some idea of how the remaining undecided voters are going to break. It was obvious in 2008.

Such is not the case in 2012.

First, there are no more undecideds. Zip. Nada. Yes, about 10% say they could still change their minds, but everyone planning to vote has a preferred candidate. So there's no large bloc to break in a single direction.

And second, there is a consistent split between most national polls and state battleground polls. National polls show a Romney lead, some as high as five points, while state battleground polls show the race statistically tied, but with a persistent Obama lead, as we've seen in Ohio and Wisconsin.

So where does that leave us? As two veterans of too many political wars, we know that while both campaigns are publicly expressing supreme confidence that they will win, both are wracked by a private paralyzing fear that they may in fact lose.

What has made this frustrating uncertainly even worse is an October surprise no one saw coming -- Hurricane Sandy. So with the 2012 presidential election around the corner, here are the five things to watch for in the next week.

1. When it comes to Hurricane Sandy, he who attacks first loses.

We have one message for both campaigns: Don't be the first to go on attack. Voters couldn't care less about politics when they see fellow Americans suffering. Each campaign will have to tread very carefully, and each candidate would be wise to adopt a more positive, uplifting tone until the lights come back on and people aren't swimming to their homes. Whichever campaign abandons this approach in favor of the traditional end-of-campaign negative will be punished at the polls.

2. Will the turnout be more like 2008 or 2004?

If readers want to know why so many polls are all over the place, it's very simple. It's based on a "likely voter model" that differs from pollster to pollster. These likely voter models are all based on pollsters' own assumptions of what the electorate will look like in 2012, with age and ethnicity being particularly important factors.

The fact is that polling is as much an art as it is a science -- and art can be very messy when it comes to likely voter models. It's assumed that young voters and voters of color will not reach the historic levels of 2008, but how far below that bar reality will be is an open question. Then there is the partisan split. In 2004, Republicans voted at a much higher percentage than Democrats, leading Bush to victory. In 2008, turnout hit record levels for Democrats, while Republican turnout was depressed. If the turnout is close to 2004, Romney wins. If it's similar to 2008, Obama wins. It's a simple equation -- but impossible to predict.

3. Don't believe the early vote hype.

Both sides are already proclaiming that they are ahead in early voting. The Obama campaign is crowing about how they are meeting or beating Republicans in nearly every key battleground, while the Romney campaign is asserting how they are exceeding the McCain early vote results by huge margins. Don't believe the hype. As a general rule, Democrats are more likely to vote early, while Republicans tend to vote on Election Day.

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The more important question, is how many soft leaners and truly undecided voters will there be come Election Day? We think very few. These are the hardest voters to find, they are just as likely to stay home, and they will not be influenced by the campaigns' Get-Out-the-Vote programs.

All that being said, if you want to look at a couple of important statistics in terms of early vote, look at these two factors: (1) what percentage of the state has voted early (and whether it exceeds 2008); and (2) how are Republicans performing relative to Democrats in key strongholds relative to 2008. As you look at the early vote totals, think about this; if Democrats are underperforming and Republicans over-performing (or vice versa), you'll have a better idea who may win that state and the election.

4. Is it a new battleground or a fakeout?

Over the coming days, reports will leak out of states where one campaign is buying ad time or shifting resources because it just might be in play. In the last 48 hours, supporters of Romney have purchased ad time in Minnesota, Pennsylvania, and Michigan, leading some to believe the electoral map has expanded. Is it true? It all depends.

In 2000, for example, though the Bush team professed that even California had become a battleground state, such was not the case. The reality is, in most cases, these are fakeouts by the campaigns to try and bleed the other side of resources and force the campaign to shift valuable candidate time to that state. After all, with just days left, the most important commodity the campaigns have is time. Shift Obama to Pennsylvania, and he's spending less time in Ohio. Force Romney to visit North Carolina, and he has less time for Virginia.

The simple fact is if you see a Romney or Obama, or Biden or Ryan, visit a state they have seldom visited during this campaign, that state is now in play. So watch out for Pennsylvania, Michigan, and particularly Minnesota. If the candidate shows up, the campaign cash is sure to follow.

5. The Final Jobs Report: Strong Hiring, but with a Twist

At 8:30 a.m. Friday, the final pre-election jobs report was released and, frustratingly for both sides, it provided something for each campaign to tout. More than 170,000 new jobs were created in September, handily beating expectations, which is good news for President Obama.

But the unemployment rate went up to 7.9%, which allows the Romney camp to declare that the unemployment rate is now higher than when President Obama took office. The question is which factor -- jobs created or an unemployment rate increase -- is more important for voters?

It's not an easy question to answer. The fact is that each campaign will grab this conflicted jobs report to confirm their narratives -- for Romney, it's the economy isn't recovering, and for Obama it's that the economy is recovering. For now, the only thing to do is watch and see if one campaign's narrative starts winning over the other and the national tracking polls start breaking in one direction or another, providing one candidate with a bit of momentum going into Election Day.

So that's where we are with less than a week to go -- a race that in the truest sense of the word is a genuine toss-up. If you want to know exactly what to watch for on Nov. 6, be sure to read our final piece posted on Election Day morning for a minute-by-minute breakdown of what to look for as polls close across the country.

Then be prepared: It's going to be a very, very long night.

Chris Kofinis is a Democratic strategist. Frank Luntz is a Republican pollster and strategist. AOL has an elections content partnership with Chris Kofinis and Luntz Global.

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The Obama Romney Debate: Who Won (and Why That's Not the Key Question)

Chris Kofinis and Frank Luntz — Tue, 23 Oct 2012 09:28:00 EST

Filed under: China, Elections, Barack Obama

So the debates are over, and after 270 minutes of partisan disagreement, we've learned some important lessons. First debates matter a lot. Second debates matter some. And third debates, maybe, not so much?

As we all know by now, Gov. Romney's superior performance in the first debate upended this race and may have put him on the cusp of becoming the next president of the United States. If Romney wins this election, it will be because of that first debate.

The second debate, regardless of whom you think won, did little to change the dynamics of the race. While President Obama did much better, he was unable to reverse Romney's momentum. At best, Obama's second debate performance may have stanched the bleeding, but even that isn't clear.

As for the third debate, let's not sugarcoat it, President Obama won decisively -- at least on the topic of the evening, foreign policy. That's good news for Obama and bad news for Romney. (However, yes, there is a "but" coming later on.)

Obama was strong and forceful throughout when discussing his foreign policy record and vision. He was aggressive, and was clearly determined to put Romney on the defensive. Obama successfully used Romney's previous statements to not only undercut Romney's foreign policy bona fides, but to make his own record look better. If the president had a weak spot, it was that he seemed almost too determined to critique Gov. Romney.

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Conversely, Romney was strongest -- as we predicted -- when he tied his answers back to the economy, deficits and jobs. In point of fact, he didn't do this nearly enough. He also came across as tougher on Iran than the president, one of the few areas in which he seemed to best Obama. Romney was also very measured and careful -- maybe too careful. It's clear that Romney's debate strategy this time around was to avoid gaffes and paint himself as a safe alternative not just to American voters in general, but to women voters in particular.

All in all, Obama won most of the exchanges, and landed a memorable zinger or two. Romney made no major mistakes and avoided saying anything that would have crippled his campaign. Both candidates also seem to have accomplished their primary goals. President Obama looked presidential and strongly defended his economic and foreign policy record. Governor Romney, too, came across as presidential, but emphasized a starkly different vision for the economy, while all but bear-hugging the president on foreign policy. So both did what they aimed to do: The question is what will matter most for voters when they cast their ballots on Nov. 6?

But, (yes, here it is) the bad news for Obama, and good news for Romney, is that winning this debate may not matter very much.

Obama vs. Romney, the Final Round: 5 Things to Watch for in the Debate

Chris Kofinis and Frank Luntz — Mon, 22 Oct 2012 11:09:00 EST

Filed under: China, Elections, Barack Obama

After two dramatic debates, with a race that is all but tied nationally, we have come to this -- one final 90-minute showdown that may decide who becomes the next president of the United States.

Not since 1980, arguably, has one debate carried such significance. And other than 2004, it's hard to isolate a debate on foreign policy that could decide who wins the next election.

But this last debate isn't just about foreign policy. It's about something much bigger. It's about leadership and decision-making. It's about confidence and strength of purpose. It's about what kind of president the American people can expect in the face of international crisis.

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During this debate, the smart candidate will use his command of the world stage to demonstrate not just a knowledge of foreign policy, but why it impacts the domestic issues that matter most to the American people in this election. Don't care about the rise of China? Most Americans may not, but we do care about China's impact on America's job market. Voters may not care about the Middle East or Europe as much as they care about more-obviously domestic issues, but they want a leader who will make sure America has low energy prices and competes and wins in a global economy.

In a race like this, where the few undecided voters are looking for a good reason -- really, any reason -- to make their final choice, these arguments and this debate will make the difference. All that being said, click through the slides below to see what you should be watching for tonight.

Gallery: Obama vs. Romney, the Final Round: 5 Things to Watch for in the Debate

Chris Kofinis is a Democratic strategist. Frank Luntz is a Republican pollster and strategist. AOL has an elections content partnership with Chris Kofinis and Luntz Global.

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Obama vs. Romney, Round 2: What to Watch for at the Town Hall Debate

Chris Kofinis and Frank Luntz — Tue, 16 Oct 2012 13:52:00 EST

Filed under: Elections, Barack Obama

The first debate between Mitt Romney and Barack Obama accomplished what few debates in history have: a dynamic change in the state of the race. We said the first debate was going to have an impact, but even we have been surprised how much it has changed the race -- for now.

With respect to the vice presidential debate, while it was as fun to watch as we predicted (we're still wondering how in Vice President Joe Biden gets his teeth so white and Rep. Paul Ryan gets his hair so full), it did little to change the dynamics of the race. What it did accomplish was to stop cold -- at least until tonight -- the growing drumbeat in the media that the Obama campaign was spiraling downward and that Romney had become the frontrunner.

All that was prologue. Tonight, in a setting that would have made Will Rogers proud, the show will be on full display.

The question is ... what kind of show will it be?

The greatest risk both candidates face is not from each other but from a format that has emasculated and embarrassed its share of politicians. Yes, the dreaded town hall. We know it sounds easy, but getting asked live questions -- let alone tough questions -- by actual voters changes the tone of a debate. You can attack a moderator -- that's almost to be expected -- but you can never, EVER, attack a real voter, no matter how crazy their question.

Tonight's audience will be comprised of "undecided voters" as selected by Gallup. Having done focus groups with undecided voters for more than a decade, we can tell you that identifying who is truly undecided is no easy task. It takes multiple screenings just to weed out folks who like to say they're undecided but clearly aren't. That being said, both candidates will have to contend with the sort of tough and unpredictable questions that can throw the best politician off his "A" game.

So that's the preview. Now let's break down the five things to watch for this evening.

1. To Be Aggressive or Not To Be Aggressive, That Is the Question.

Everyone is telegraphing that President Obama should and will be far more aggressive in this debate. Sounds really easy, but here's the problem. It's a town hall debate, people. Being super aggressive will not go down well with the live audience. The cameras will be panning to them looking for reactions -- particularly, negative reactions.

The fact is that one of the most difficult things to do in a town hall is look an audience member in the eye and then, without missing a beat, gut your opponent. It can be done, but it's a fine line between being "aggressive" and being "rude." Cross that line and you're finished.

2. Lose the Watch, and Don't Stand so Close to Me.

How you look to voters during a debate can either help you or kill you. Amazingly, some candidates seem to forget there are cameras on them during the entire debate -- even when they're not answering questions.

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In 1992, then-President George H.W. Bush infamously looked at his watch during the town hall debate. It was a devastating moment for Bush and helped seal his fate.

In 2000, after a subpar performance in which he was accused of not being "aggressive enough" (sound familiar?), then-Vice President Al Gore came into the second debate hotter than a jackrabbit. Case in point, the memorable moment where he stood way too close to Bush just as Bush was about to answer a question. Which leads us to this important lesson: Don't try to intimidate your debate opponent physically. Voters at home don't like it.

Tonight, keep an eye out for the candidates' body language, how they interact with each other, how they look when they're answering questions, and more important, how they interact with the voters in the hall. Do they work the room? Do they ask the voter a follow-up? Do they try to make a personal connection? Do they stumble about or say something that elicits groans from the crowd? Anything can happen, and thanks to cable news, Google, Twitter and Facebook, we'll all know about it in seconds.

3. The "Hug and Cut."

The truth is, the last thing America wants to see are two fighting politicians pounding each other for 90 minutes. If this debate gets too hot, or if one candidate gets too hot, it will backfire. The best strategy is what we call the "Hug and Cut" (i.e. praise your opponent first -- good father, good husband, good man, who is [insert selective praise here]) -- and then "cut" with some targeted criticism. The best practitioner: Bill Clinton, of course.

4. Cold Mitt vs. Empathetic Mitt.

Mitt Romney has often been described as cold or awkward. In the first debate, he came across as strong, empathic, and determined. This upcoming debate will now put Romney's empathy bona fides, as well as his policy positions, to the test. The question is which Romney will show up, "Cold Mitt" or "Empathetic Mitt"?

Romney may have all the answers, but if he comes across as cold and indifferent -- on even just one question -- it could prove very costly. Romney must display his empathy for the entire debate, because "Cold Mitt" will not win Ohio, or this election. Obama knows this. Watch for Obama to try and paint Romney as distant and indifferent.

5. Please, Not "That Question."

At some point during the town hall, each candidate will get asked one uncomfortable question by one of the undecided voters. It may not be difficult to answer per se, but it will make him uncomfortable. It could be about religion, or abortion, or a litany of social issues. Whatever "that question" is, you'll know it as soon as you hear it, so make sure you're paying attention. The initial response will be skirt the question, but then the moderator may come back and press him on it. The bottom line: There will be no escaping ... Romney and Obama will have to answer.

And those candid, off-the-cuff answers will give us one great show to remember.

Chris Kofinis is a Democratic strategist. Frank Luntz is a Republican pollster and strategist. AOL has an elections content partnership with Chris Kofinis and Luntz Global.

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5 Things to Watch For in Tonight's Vice Presidential Debate

Chris Kofinis and Frank Luntz — Thu, 11 Oct 2012 12:45:00 EST

Filed under: Elections

Today's VP debate preview piece is brought to you by Sesame Street and the letter A (as in "attack ad"). With that being said, get ready for fight night.

Put the kids to bed, lock the doors, pull down the shades, grab a favorite beverage, finalize the rules for your drinking game and be prepared to witness a good old-fashioned political rumble. As Joe Biden would say, this is a "f---ing big deal." In fact, if there isn't at least one expletive spoken (ahem, Biden) and one fist thrown (ahem Ryan, actually scratch that, Biden again) we'll be surprised.

Tonight, America will witness quite a show because the stakes, frankly speaking, couldn't be higher for both campaigns.

So where does the race stand after last week's biblical disaster of a debate for President Obama? It's just about a true toss-up.

Here is where we diverge -- a bit. While both of us view this race as a toss-up, at least for now, I (Chris speaking) would emphasize the momentum, somewhat slightly, towards Romney, while I (Frank speaking) still have trouble seeing past Obama's stubborn lead in Ohio.

We both agree that the race is quite volatile. We saw just how volatile in the incredible reactions voters had to Romney's exceptional debate performance, and Obama's exceptionally poor performance. The reality is that enough of the electorate can and will move over the course of the next three weeks to secure the margin of victory for either candidate. The remaining debates (tonight's VP debate and the two remaining presidential debates) will decide this election -- as they should. Sorry, admeisters, it's about time substance took center stage. We are now in the midst of a debate-driven election, and that is why what happens tonight will have repercussions for both campaigns.

With respect to tonight's debate, it is all about whether Rep. Ryan builds on Romney's
momentum or whether VP Joe Biden stops him dead cold. Two thing are clear. First, Biden can accept a draw but cannot make a single gaffe (more on that in a bit) or be seen as the loser. Second, Ryan can accept a draw but cannot stumble in a way that puts the Romney ticket on the defensive going into the second presidential debate.

The reality is that while VP debates seldom, if ever, decide a presidential election, this one will matter because there is just too much volatility among the narrow swath of undecided voters and too few days before the next election to afford any stumbles.

So before the fight begins, let's go to the tale of the tape.

VP Joe Biden
Age: 69
Weight: No idea
Reach: Hits hard with a smile
Strength: Empathetic, gregariousness
Weaknesses: Suffers from gaffe-itis (a syndrome wherein you cause severe headaches from putting foot in mouth)
Secret Weapon: Aggressive, Da Zinger. Turns on the passion faster than a Porsche.

Rep. Paul Ryan
Age: 42
Weight: Skinnier than both of us
Reach: As far as the numbers will take him
Strength: Rainman-like statistical knowledge (surely you've seen the Tom Cruise movie)
Weakness: Rainman-like statistical knowledge
Secret Weapon: Aggressive, Aw-schucksian (milks the nice guy persona quite well, because he is one). A grandmother's dream.

So here are the five things to look for tonight.

1. Does Biden swing first? You betcha! The VP will lay down the hammer from the first question. He will try and make up for what President Obama didn't do. The danger for the Veep is that there is a fine line between strength/ passion and angry/out-of-control. As long as the Veep doesn't cross that line, he'll be fine. But he only wins the debate if can punch and counterpunch with substance AND style.

2. Does Ryan rise? Ryan's challenge will be to hit back as hard as he gets without sounding wonkish. Ryan has never had a national debate, and he'll be somewhat nervous. But Ryan has faced down the national press corps before, and he knows his subjects cold. If he comes across as both smart and empathetic, it will be a serious problem for Democrats.

3. The Hiss/Cheer Dynamic: Crowd reactions? Will there be any? Will the moderator tell the crowd to not applaud or respond to Biden and Ryan's answers ... or will they be permitted to clap, cheer, hiss, throw bottles (slight exaggeration) or cheese (gross characterization of the Wisconsin congressman)? Make no mistake, crowd reactions can either feed the candidate or completely throw them off. So be sure to listen to what the moderator says at the very beginning.

4. Gaffe and zinger patrol: Who will make the memorable gaffe, and who will have the memorable zinger? Yes, we know that everyone is prepared for a Biden gaffe, but he will come in focused and disciplined. He's also more likely to have the most memorable line of the debate -- as he had the most memorable line of the convention ("Bin Laden is dead and GM is alive"). We also think there will be enough references to "Sesame Street" and to Medicare vouchers to fuel your drinking game.

5. The "Nasty" Factor: Intellectual fights, which is what debates are at their core, can bring out many emotions. The one emotion this one can't bring out is anger. No one wants to see a nasty candidate. Nobody wants to be yelled at by a politician. If you're Biden, you don't want to look unhinged. If you're Ryan, you don't want people think you're being rude and petulant. Each candidate will have to control himself, and by extension control the debate. Bottom line, the first candidate to be seen as nasty loses.

It's clear that there is more pressure on the Veep to perform, but Ryan must rise to the occasion. So what are our predictions? Too close to call right now, but one thing we can predict: It's going to be quite the show, and you won't want to miss it for the world. Now fill your glass...

Gallery: Joe Biden and Paul Ryan: The Candidates You Don't Know

Chris Kofinis is a Democratic strategist. Frank Luntz is a Republican pollster and strategist. AOL has an elections content partnership with Chris Kofinis and Luntz Global.

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Undecided Voters: Round One Goes to Romney

Chris Kofinis and Frank Luntz — Thu, 04 Oct 2012 08:22:00 EST

Filed under: Elections, Barack Obama

Now, we don't agree on much, but reality is reality. Gov. Romney won the debate.

No way to deny it, spin it, or paint a different picture. It was the moment the Romney campaign was looking for -- a decisive victory that could change the narrative -- and he got it.

One knew from the opening answer that Gov. Romney had come loaded for bear. From that very first answer on, he was passionate and forceful. He recited a blizzard of facts and offered well-structured answers. He was empathetic and respectful to the president. And, he pushed a coherent and focused message. In fact, for these 90 minutes, he was the opposite of the campaign and the candidate the American people have seen.

Yes, he was quite good.

President Obama, on the other hand, was passive bordering on disinterest. He seemed displeased at times, and even worse, he showed it. He had no message and he meandered. He ignored facts and specifics he could have used to attack Gov. Romney. He didn't have an effective frame or any message. Interestingly, one of President Obama's best answers came when he defended his health care plan, but he still did not undermine Gov. Romney in this exchange. How is that possible? On health care?

Worst of all, he let Gov. Romney control the debate from beginning to end. Folks, it's Debate 101 that you never -- ever -- let your opponent control the debate. At a minimum, the president needed to be as aggressive as Gov. Romney. But he wasn't.

Putting aside our observations, based on an AOL-sponsored debate night focus group of 25 undecided voters, the results were clear. Romney won. President Obama lost.

When asked whether they felt that Romney improved his image, the answer was a resounding yes. When asked whether they felt this would energize his campaign, the answer was yes. While the president did show signs of improvement in the second half of the debate among our group, it just wasn't nearly enough.

So what did we learn from tonight's debate and what does it mean for the remaining two presidential debates?

1. Be On-Message: Watch the debate again. Count how many times Romney said the word "jobs" versus President Obama. Does anyone want to make a $10,000 bet how many more times Gov. Romney said jobs? It is inexplicable that the president ceded this word and issue to Gov. Romney. This election is about jobs and the economy, yet the president rarely talked about jobs. Gov. Romney kept talking about jobs and the economy, even when he was asked about something else. In doing so, Romney won the message war.

2. Expectations Matter: Much as George W. Bush won the debates in 2000 because voters expected so little, Mitt Romney "won" last night because he so exceeded expectations. Let's be honest, most folks expected Gov. Romney wouldn't do well tonight. In fact, if you were watching his campaign you would have expected -- predicted -- some disastrous gaffe or mistake. The expectations were low, and that kind of expectations game creates a dangerous dynamic. Voters come in thinking they're going to witness some caricature of a candidate they've seen and heard. But when they see and hear something different, the reaction and effect is even greater than the debate performance may even warrant.

3. Passion Matters -- a Lot!: Gov. Romney sounded and looked passionate, the president did not (except on health care). Gov. Romney spoke like he truly believed in what he was saying, while President Obama's tone missed the mark. He seemed unwilling to sell to the American people on his vision and policies in the passionate ways we have heard in the past. The word we heard most to describe Obama: "flat" -- and this is at a time when Americans want their president to rise to the challenge and inspire us to greatness again.

4. Stats Matter: Here's a little debate trick to remember: If you want to sound substantive, use statistics to reinforce nearly every response and attack. It's the "facts" voters say they crave. Romney did just that. He was a human statistics machine. He used them to not only reinforce his answers but to undermine the president's. Were these statistics all true? Who knows? But the president did nothing to undermine Gov. Romney's statistics and arguments. As a result, Romney's answers sounded more informed, more convincing, and more credible.

5. Be Aggressive: Aggressiveness is more appealing than defensiveness, and the president displayed no willingness to engage. He did not press. He did not counterpunch. He did not mention the 47% video or a litany of attacks his campaign has used to define Gov. Romney. Why? It's almost inexplicable. President Obama simply failed to take the fight to Gov. Romney, even as his own campaign takes the fight to Romney very day. There were clearly moments -- many of them -- where he could have forcefully engaged Gov. Romney. Instead, President Obama chose a more cerebral and filibustering approach, which does not work when you face a determined opponent.

So where do we go from here? Will this change the course of the election?

We'll see, but one thing is clear. The next presidential debate just became as important to President Obama as it is to Gov. Romney.

Let the battle continue.

Chris Kofinis is a Democratic strategist. Frank Luntz is a Republican pollster and strategist. AOL has an elections content partnership with Chris Kofinis and Luntz Global.

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Five Things to Look for During the Presidential Debate

Chris Kofinis and Frank Luntz — Wed, 03 Oct 2012 13:00:00 EST

Filed under: U.S. Government, Elections, Barack Obama

Let's establish one important fact from the top - the upcoming presidential debate will matter. Why?

Well, for three reasons.

First, because this will be the most watched event of this election, and that creates the opportunity for some pretty dramatic outcomes. Second, because this is a volatile race and there are enough undecided and soft leaners (people who lean towards one candidate but could be persuaded to change their minds) to move battleground state polls quite dramatically over the next 30 or so days. And third, because presidential debates are as close as we come to "Thunderdome" politics -- two go in, but only one comes out.

Make no mistake about it: come Thursday morning, there will be a winner. If Romney wins, he will change the narrative of this election and give his flagging campaign some much-needed energy. If Obama wins, he has all but sealed up his re-election. If it is a draw, Obama wins because with so little time remaining Romney needed to do more than draw even.

So with all that being said, here are the five things debate watchers should look for during the October 3 presidential debate.

1. The Unavoidable Tough Question.

Usually, the tough questions are pretty obvious, but sometimes they are so unexpected or brutal that they can truly shake a candidate. If you want to know what that feels like for the candidates, just imagine that awful feeling you get in your stomach when you almost get in a car accident. Now imagine that with tens of millions of people watching. Not so good, right?

What does that all mean for Wednesday night? Well, it depends on whether the question each candidates loathes answering gets asked.

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For example, if Romney gets asked what loopholes he would close or how his budget math adds up when everyone says it doesn't, he'd better have an answer; saying he wants to wait until after the election to get specific will be a disaster. If Obama gets asked directly what entitlements changes he would propose or why some of his economic proposals haven't worked, he will have to answer with specifics, avoid excuses, and avoid sounding defensive. Whatever the questions may be, there is one (sometimes more than one) that if you watch closely enough you'll realize was the stomach-turning question.

How each candidate responds at that moment will tell a lot about who wins or loses this debate and the election.

2. Seize-the-Debate Moments

Debates are not about answering policy questions -- any candidate can do that (well, almost any, sans Rick Perry). They are about creating and defining moments that capture voters' attentions and help define you, your opponent, as well as the entire election.

We're not talking about zingers, either. Most zingers are flimsy, ill-timed and poorly delivered. What we're talking about is when a candidate gives an answer or response that creates an "aha" moment in voters' minds. Ronald Reagan did that with his now-infamous question, "Are you better off now than you were four years ago?" But it wasn't the question that defined the moment; it was how he answered -- his words, his tone, his emotion, and his brutal directness that helped shake a fairly close race into an election blowout. It was a moment that not only grabbed voters' attention, it helped crystallize what a lot of voters already believed about President Carter -- and it was devastating.

In some cases, it can be a negative moment, such as when a candidate makes a major gaffe, or fails to show any compassion or emotion when asked about a terrible crisis or a horrific event (example A, Gov. Dukakis in 1988). These negative moments can define a debate as much as positive ones. These are the landmines all candidates pray they don't step on.

For Gov. Romney to have a real chance for a dramatic election turnaround, he needs one of these defining moments, and it needs to be a positive one. As for President Obama, he needs to do everything possible to avoid a negative moment that would in any way turn those soft leaners or undecided voters against him. So be sure to watch for this above all else.

3. The Beginning and the End

Listen to what the candidate says in his first and last answers. Those few minutes at the top and the end matter -- a lot!

Our advice to candidates is to use their first response to frame the entire debate. Whatever you get asked, use that first question -- when your opponent is nervous, everyone is watching, and the media is thinking about what the story line should be -- to define this debate and rock your opponent.

The smart candidate will use that first answer to box in his opponent and put him on the defensive. He will say something that will not only exploit his opponent's weaknesses, but minimize his own. He needs do it forcefully, but nicely. By the way, there is nothing more damaging to your opponent than getting punched in the gut in the first five minutes. A lesson to keep in mind: If you can undermine your opponent at the very top of a debate, it will shake him from beginning to end.

As for the last answer, smart candidates use this to make the final sell. A great closing statement becomes the exclamation mark to a debate performance. It needs to be a straight-to-camera, connect-with-the-voter sermon. It needs to reflect the voter's reality, not the candidate's. It needs to convey emotion and strength. Above all, it needs to be the moment where the candidate puts down the hammer on what the fundamental choice of this election is or should be. If done well, it can be powerful and memorable.

So be sure to watch and listen carefully to what President Obama and Gov. Romney say in the opening few minutes of the debate. Will they just answer the question, or will they seize the moment to define this debate from start?

4. Romney vs. Obama

So who is the better debater? People will differ, but Gov. Romney is a very good debater and a better one than President Obama. Romney's flaw -- and it's a big one -- is that he has a real tendency to blow himself up with terrible gaffes. President Obama is an average debater who tends to filibuster answers, meanders, but never makes a real gaffe. He's cool and safe. Both of these candidates can also get very defensive when pushed - not a great quality to highlight in a debate, by the way.

To that end, expect both candidates to come out aggressive. Gov. Romney will try and attack President Obama for not taking enough responsibility and making too many excuses about his record. He will try and make Obama own his record and his words. For Obama, it will be about hammering Romney's view on the 47% of Americans he described as victims and then painting him as a politician without a core. He will try and force Romney to contradict himself and be defensive.

5. Winning Voters' Hearts

One of the hardest things to do in politics is to communicate emotion and empathy through a TV camera. It's even harder in a debate.

Some candidates are naturals, like Bill Clinton, and some are not (ahem, Al Gore). But a candidate needs to win hearts, not just minds. A winning debater needs to convey that emotion at the right time and in the right way. It needs to be genuine and sincere. Some try and fake it, but voters know when it's real.

This may be Gov. Romney's biggest hurdle. President Obama is likeable and people see him as someone who understands their problems. He is crushing Romney on these intangible qualities that matter more than one's policy specifics in today's 24/7 media climate.

Unfortunately for Romney, his words and his campaign have painted a brutal picture of someone cold and indifferent to the real suffering of others. Romney will have ninety minutes to disabuse people of that image and paint a new empathetic one. On this front, President Obama has the clear advantage, but he will have to avoid at all costs saying anything that would make people question his likeability.

So watch and ask yourself this question at the end of the debate -- do I truly like Romney more now than I did before?

Chris Kofinis is a Democratic strategist. Frank Luntz is a Republican pollster and strategist. AOL has an elections content partnership with Chris Kofinis and Luntz Global.

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