The U.S. trade gap widened to just under $500 billion in 2010, but that obscures impressive growth in global sales of U.S. goods. And the outlook for 2011 is even better. Still, to reach a trade surplus, America must solve two serious problems.
After years of exhorting China to increase the value of its yuan, the currency is finally rising. Why that's so is the result of the Fed's quantitative easing program. Here's how Bernanke managed to succeed where political wrangling fell short.
China's economy is booming, and Western nations are increasing their demands that its currency be allowed to rise to its natural value. Who knows if that will happen, but if you want to bet that it will, the Bank of China just made it easier: Now, Americans can open renminbi-denominated accounts.
The dollar is looking mighty attractive, thanks to a reviving U.S. economy and eurozone woes, and it will only get stronger as traders who gambled that it would fall buy dollars to unwind their bad bets. Add in China's desperate need to get its overheated economy in check, and commodities prices look like they have nowhere to go but down.
China's decision to hike interest rates to contain inflation is a missed opportunity to move the country toward a more domestic-oriented economy. A higher yuan would slow exports, but it would be a bigger overall benefit to China's economy.
In Asia on Tuesday, Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index rose 0.1%, China's Shanghai Composite inched down 0.3%. and in Japan, the Nikkei 225 crept up 0.1%. Investors are closely monitoring the U.S. midterm elections, with many predicting that if the Democrats lose their majorities in both the House and the Senate, the dollar will continue to slide.
Analysts lately have loudly proclaimed the end of the dollar, leaving investors looking to stay ahead with a choice of betting on stocks, which have 17% fallen in the last decade, or staying "safe" in very low-yield money market funds. But there is an alternative: commodities.
China surprised international markets Tuesday by raising key interest rates for the first time in three years. The move sparked a worldwide sell-off on worries that it could cause the Chinese economy to slow down.
The U.S. trade deficit unexpectedly jumped to $46.3 billion in August, as the nation's deficit with China surged to a record $28 billion. Oil prices were the other key culprit as the petroleum deficit surged 5.7%.
Investors take note: Despite the calls for order, national policymakers are dealing with an increasingly haphazard scenario loaded with counterproductive results and unintended consequences. The result could be a slide toward protectionism.
A bill, passed by the U.S. House of Representatives Wednesday, would let U.S. companies petition for duties on Chinese imports -- a move that would hurt the global economy if it became law, the Chinese government said.
The Chinese yuan hit a post-revaluation high against the dollar Monday after the People's Bank of China set the yuan's reference rate for trading at its highest level since the central bank began publishing the daily fix in 1994. The yuan can rise or fall 0.5% each day from the reference point.
