Americans are earning and spending more, but a lot of the extra money is going down their gas tanks. Gas prices have drained more than half the extra cash Americans are getting this year from a cut in Social Security taxes.
The S&P 500 has nearly doubled from its post-crash lows, and small investors are finally getting off the sidelines again. Normally, that would be a danger sign for a correction, but right now, all signs point to the upward stock market trend continuing in 2011. Here's why:
Goldman Sachs drew some undeserved ire when it recently pointed to proposed cuts in federal spending as a key near-term risk. While the proposed cuts are modest, they could still undermine the rebound at a critical time.
It took about 10 years of decisions for the federal budget to get more than a trillion dollars out of whack, and it's going to take at least five years to balance it again. The only way to do it is piece-by-piece, with equal sacrifices from both Republicans and Democrats.
U.S. companies added $26.5 billion to dividend payments in 2010 -- a far cry from 2009's $42.4 billion decline -- and analysts predict an even better year for dividends in 2011, a windfall to investors that could lift equity markets higher.
Republican leaders may be worried about the Federal Reserve's second round of quantitative easing, but the stock and credit markets are delighted: They've improved significantly since the plan was announced. But can the rally be solely attributed to QE2?
Gallup, Pew Center and Washington Post/ABC News surveys all showed that Americans, for the most part, support the tax package approved by the Senate on Wednesday.
About six in 10 Americans approve of a tax package passed by the Senate on Wednesday that extends George W. Bush-era tax breaks for the wealthy as well extending unemployment benefits and cutting payroll taxes, according to a Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll.
If the agreement between congressional Republicans and President Obama is ratified, Pimco, which manages the world's largest bond fund, says the stimulative measure will contribute much to economic growth -- and to the deficit.
Nearly half of Americans in a recent poll believe China has surpassed America as having the strongest economy in the world, and more than half blame outsourcing and the loss of manufacturing jobs for the shift.
President Obama insists that his agreement with Republicans will help working people avoid a pay cut. But as tax experts look at the full package more closely, it has become clear that low-end wage earners will indeed take a painful hit.
The bonds have the U.S. government's full backing. But investors this week are waking up to an entirely different risk: the alarming drop in bond values and rising yields. And the reason for that may less a tax-cut-fueled deficit than brightening economic prospects.
The tax cut compromise between Obama and the GOP is now being touted as a back-door stimulus plan, one that some economists predict will create or save 3.1 million jobs. Unfortunately, the model on which those forecasts are based makes some flawed assumptions.
Nouriel Roubini, the NYU economics professor who has earned the nickname "Dr. Doom" for his predictions, says he's concerned the tax cut compromise struck by President Obama and GOP leaders could expose the U.S. to bond vigilantes who will drive up bond yields, resulting in higher borrowing costs for the federal government.
