The race doesn't always go to the swift, goes the old saying. But that's the way to bet it, replies the savvy gambler. So it is with the old saying about the stock market. Past performance is no guarantee of future returns. But it still makes sense to look at historical data - because that's the way to bet it.
Not even the savviest soothsayer can predict the long-term fallout of the SEC's legal action against Goldman Sachs. But the historical data offers a tantalizing, if sobering, hint: Stock markets have typically topped in March or April of the second year of a presidential cycle -- that is, right about now.