new normal

Beware of the constant metaphors used to frame the world economy as if it were a war or zero-sum competition. Investors should remember that economies cooperate as much as they compete on the world stage. The current U.S. manufacturing boom is a case study.

Bill Gross, the leading proponent of the "New Normal" -- the idea that stocks will return just 3% a year for the foreseeable future -- has been wrong over and over again. So why does anyone pay attention to his predictions?

The "new normal" coined by Pimco posits a long era of diminished earnings and stock prices as overleveraged consumers and companies cut back. But it's not playing out that way. It seems Corporate America is growing less and less dependent on America.

Despite the pessimistic taking hold, a growing roster of high-profile money managers are balking at at this theme, arguing that it's wrong-headed and self-defeating. Plus, good money can still be made in the markets.

Is the U.S. headed for a "new normal" -- a slow-growth economy that lasts perhaps for as long as a decade? The evidence supporting the new-normal argument, predicting a future in which the U.S. GDP grows at no more than 2.0% to 2.5% per year, is compelling. That low growth rate would constrain...