Most Wall Street experts are far better equipped to analyze a corporate risk over a political threat. But today, it's political unrest in the Middle East and beyond that's driving world markets. So we asked Ian Bremmer, president of political risk consultancy The Eurasia Group, to break down the major developments and what investors should expect.
Recent market sell-offs may have been more about paranoia than about real risk. JPMorgan calculations indicate that the potential impact of rising oil prices on the economy may be less than most investors think. But the fear factor itself also can't be overlooked.
As the crisis in Libya continues to shake world oil markets, many voices are calling for President Obama to tap into the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. With gasoline prices up 33 cents a gallon in the last month, that's a tempting idea. It's also the wrong one.
Cathay Pacific CEO Tony Tyler says when airlines last raised fares in 2008, most travelers kept on flying. But as Mideast upheavals send oil prices skyward and airlines hike fares again, the impact on the bottom line could be quite different.
Political turmoil in the Middle East keeps growing, with the ouster of Egyptian president Hosni Mubarak, rebellion in Libya and riots in Bahrain. It's no wonder that businesses with investments in those countries are feeling nervous. And that's benefiting purveyors of political-risk insurance, who are seeing premiums rise.
Investors sure have plenty of worries these days. But here's a key point to keep in mind: While higher energy prices will restrain overall global growth, they could hurt emerging markets far worse than the U.S. -- and that difference could help boost demand for domestic stocks.
U.S. bond prices fell Wednesday on violence in Libya. An auction of $35 billion in five-year notes met with little demand, while 10-year Treasury prices fell 22 cents per $100 invested. Stocks also declined as a result of the Libyan instability.