leading economic indicators

The oracles who read economic tea leaves have a host of conventional forecasting tools, but housing starts and job growth figures can only tell you so much. To cut through the haze of data, sometimes it takes an unconventional indicator -- for example, the Hair Index.

Historically, women's heel sizes reach new heights when the economy is down, and fall when it's prosperous. But come winter and spring, we'll be seeing more women in kitten heels and flats, despite the continuing economic doldrums.

While not everyone whose marriage ends rushes out to break ground on a new home, some real estate agents say divorcing spouses make up at least a third of their clients. With the economy impacting divorce trends and marital splits pushing spending trends, should economists be watching divorce rates when they chart the economic outlook?

The Conference Board's index of leading economic indicators rose an impressive 1.1% in November -- its biggest gain in eight months. It provides further evidence that the U.S. expansion is gaining momentum and will likely grow at a faster pace into 2011.

Look for a "mild pickup" in the economy this spring, according to the Conference Board, whose index of leading economic indicators showed a 0.5% gain in September and October.

September's report by The Conference Board shows more signs of a U.S. economy that's growing at a crawl. The index rose 0.3% -- its third straight monthly rise. However that pace is too low to substantially lower unemployment.

August%u2019s 0.3% Leading Economic Index rise is a classic "glass half-empty/half-full" report. On the one hand, it confirms an economy that's growing too slowly -- not fast enough to lower unemployment. On the other hand, a double-dip recession is not likely, with the LEI signaling a slowly expanding economy in the quarters ahead.

Housing data is in the financial spotlight this week, along with an FOMC meeting, the leading economic indicators index and quarterly reports from a number of companies including Adobe, AutoZone and Lennar.

Factory orders rose just 0.1% in July, the U.S. Commerce Department announced Thursday in a report that further clarified that the manufacturing sector's expansion slowed down this summer. While the statistic did indicate tepid growth, it was less than the 0.3% gain economists had predicted.

The latest Leading Economic Indicators reading and regional Philly Fed Index provide further evidence of weaker economic growth. And that complicates policymakers' efforts to lower the nation's high unemployment rate.