Leaders of 20 major economies on Friday refused to back a U.S. push to make China boost its currency's value. Despite some face-saving rhetoric, that will keep alive fears of a global trade and currency war amid criticism that cheap Chinese exports are costing American jobs.
For a host of reasons, other countries would love to free their economies from the stranglehold of the U.S. dollar's influence, especially now, when the Fed's stimulus actions are pushing the dollar lower, and everything else higher. Global finance expert Peter Cohan has a simple answer: The Mondo.
As the G-20 meets in South Korea, many world leaders have stepped up their complaints about the Fed's $600 billion quantitative easing program, as well as the rapid flow of capital into emerging markets. Some countries are installing capital controls in response, but those won't be enough, says global finance expert Peter Cohan.
On the eve of an economic summit in South Korea, disturbing signs of discord are emerging over currency valuations and trade between the U.S. and its major trading partners. Failure to achieve an agreement could set off more "currency wars."
The U.S. finds itself on the wrong side of the currency manipulation argument this week, as many G20 countries criticize the Fed's $600 billion bond buying plan, which could further devalue the dollar. World leaders say the move breaks the vow of unity made during the last G-20 summit.
The G-20 has a second chance to diffuse exchange-rate tensions Friday and Saturday, when finance ministers and central bank governors meet in South Korea. World leaders failed to resolve the currency issue two weeks ago in Washington.
The U.S. will not weaken the dollar in order to boost its exports, Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner promised. "It is not going to happen in this country," Geithner told Silicon Valley business leaders of devaluing the dollar.
Maybe so. The latest NYSE Euronext Annual CEO Report, which surveyed 325 chief executives around the world, found them to be significantly more upbeat than a year ago. CEOs are "going back to the business of growing business."
Putting a united face on a divisive issue, the G-20 leaders meeting in Toronto agreed on Sunday to a schedule for reducing their budget gaps. But the agreement doesn't entail hard deadlines. Rather, it sets up as a goal that the nations will cut their deficits in half by 2013.
Obama wants European governments to keep spending to stave off an economic slowdown. Europe, particularly Germany, doesn't want to hear about it. Expect a fractious debate at the Toronto summit meeting of G-20 industrial countries this weekend.
Next week, the G-20 summit will get under way in Toronto, but political posturing and grandstanding among the nations has already begun. In a letter to G-20 leaders, President Barack Obama says, "We must act together to strengthen the recovery."
