existing home sales

If you're trying to decide whether it's time to consider buying a house, the best clues can be found in the new and existing home inventory numbers. And despite all the other positive indicators, those figures are still much too high for comfort.

The latest reports on home sales and prices offer a complicated and conflicted picture. But when the data are taken together, one thing is clear: Weighing risk and reward, it's worth waiting a few months to see which way the real estate winds are really blowing.

While home prices were falling last fall nearly nationwide, the pace of sales has picked up more recently. Overall, it seems clear that the worst of the housing debacle has passed. It's just that the U.S. remains on a slow, grinding track back to housing health.

Housing remains in a slow, but uncertain recovery, as existing-home sales increased a less-than-expected 5.6% last month, to a 4.68-million-unit annual rate. At least, home sales rose in every U.S. region, and inventories fell.

Sales agreements for previously occupied homes rose 10.4 % in October. But that one spark of hope comes against a backdrop of declining prices, bulging inventories and ongoing legal issues around foreclosures. Don't count on a real estate recovery next year.

Existing home sales unexpectedly surged 10% in September -- the second consecutive monthly rise. Although a retrenchment is always possible, if existing sales continue to rise in the quarters ahead, that improvement would support U.S. GDP growth -- a welcome sight.

What should investors make of August's better-than-expected 7.6% rise? Not too much. Even though it's a big improvement over July's ugly 27.2% plunge, it's still the second-lowest month for existing-home sales in the past 15 years.

Home prices in 20 major U.S. cities rose a better-than-expected 1% in June from May, according to the Case-Shiller index. But the home buyer tax credit probably helped lift June's data, while home sales in July have tumbled.

The National Association of Realtors says existing-home sales plunged more than 27% in July. June's sales were also revised lower. The news added to the gloom on Wall Street.

After the federal home buyers tax credit ended at the end of April, analysts expected that sales would drop 7% in June. The reality was not quite that bad, with a 5.1% decline. Should Congress renew the credit?