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By most indications, the U.S. economy is recovering fairly well for the time being. But across the Pond in Europe, another story is unfolding that has the stock market worried -- and it should have your attention, too.
As the eurozone sovereign debt crisis continues, focus is shifting to Italy as the next potential victim. But for worries closer to home, consider this: $37 billion in U.S. government benefits designed to help people through the downturn will expire by the end of 2011, leaving a hole twice that size in the economy.
Portugal's economic health is at risk of collapse after Moody's cut its rating of the country's debt to junk status. Also at risk of collapse: The case against former IMF head Dominique Strauss-Kahn after The New York Post reported that his accuser was working two jobs -- as a maid and a prostitute.
The long term isn't looking good for the greenback: Central bank managers don't see it keeping its status as the world's reserve currency. The short term's not looking so hot for the U.S. economy either: Housing prices are down another 4% year over year, and confidence is falling.
Even before the International Energy Agency and the White House announced they were releasing billions of gallons or oil from fuel reserves, gas prices were falling. In the past two weeks, a gallon is down more than 11 cents. Also falling -- hopes for the euro, and the outlook for U.S. Treasury bonds.
At the start of a new week, all eyes are on Greece. E.U. finance ministers postponed agreement on a bailout until they see proof that its government will follow through on austerity measures. Meanwhile, some big U.S. firms are pushing for a generous tax holiday.
The European debt crisis is back: Portugal is in political turmoil, and may need a major bailout, and Spain may too. But the E.U.'s strong healthy are rebelling against propping up their weaker neighbors. The real issue, though, is that the E.U. hasn't yet addressed the fundamental flaw built into it at the euro's creation.
Despite all the headwinds blowing against it -- and they're fierce -- the U.S. dollar has been holding its own against the world's major currencies. And if the U.S. recovery remains on track, the greenback has good odds of actually strengthening in 2011.
In its latest report, the IMF applauds national policymakers for stabilizing credit markets and putting the global economy on a recovery track. However, thorny problems remain -- including how to prevent overheating in emerging markets, and how to cut the U.S. deficit while lowering its unemployment rate.
The Spanish government's successful bond auction Thursday reassured investors, pushing the euro to a one-week high against the dollar. Portugal and Italy also tested the bond market this week with their own auctions. But how much appetite for bonds do investors really have?

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