double-dip recession

Falling Gas Prices Are an Early Holiday Gift for Retailers

Gas prices have finally begun to reflect the falling price of oil, which dipped from nearly $100 a barrel in July to less than $78 now. A gallon of regular averaged $3.408 Tuesday, down from $3.662 a month ago. That's excellent news for the nation's retailers as we approach the holiday shopping season.

Poll: Nearly Half of Americans Fear Depression Is LIkely

Despite rosy financial forecasts made by economists this spring, our fears that the nation is about to sink into another depression are reaching depressing extremes. A new CNN poll reveals that nearly half of Americans believe a 1930s-scale depression is possible within the next 12 months.

The Real Problem With Inflation Isn't on Wall Street

As earlier bouts of alarmism over Europe, then a double-dip recession and then deflation fade away, a new bogeyman is taking their place: Inflation, and the damage it could do to profits and stocks. Yes, prices are rising, but the main pain will be felt worst among America's poorest.

Obama's Cuts: Less Than Meets the Eye, Thankfully

A parade of Republicans immediately lined up to attack the president's proposed budget cuts this week, claiming the plan falls short of making a real difference. They're right. And that's good, because really deep cuts are the last thing the economy needs right now.

Positive U.S. Jobs Data Strengthens Asian Markets

Asian markets climbed higher Thursday as positive numbers out of the U.S. were enough to trigger a spike in investor confidence. In Japan the Nikkei 225 Index surged 1.8% and in Hong Kong the Hang Seng Index rose 0.9%. China's Shanghai Composite Index advanced 0.7%.

Greenspan: Deficit Fears Could Trigger Bond Market Crisis

The U.S. must act to rein in its massive budget deficits or face the risk of a bond market crisis, former Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan said Sunday. If deficits begin to frighten the bond market, interest rates will rise, undermining the recovery, and possibly causing a double-dip recession.

OPEC to Leave Oil Output Unchanged

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries will leave oil output unchanged, a delegate at the group's current meeting told Reuters. Oil ministers apparently are not worried the weak dollar will drive up the price of crude far enough that it will crimp the global economic recovery.

Leading Indicators Rose in August but Point to Tepid GDP Growth

August%u2019s 0.3% Leading Economic Index rise is a classic "glass half-empty/half-full" report. On the one hand, it confirms an economy that's growing too slowly -- not fast enough to lower unemployment. On the other hand, a double-dip recession is not likely, with the LEI signaling a slowly expanding economy in the quarters ahead.

Thanks to Austerity Moves, Britain Keeps Its AAA Rating

The government of British Prime Minister David Cameron won a key vote of confidence from the financial community Monday when Moody's Investors Services announced that it would continue to apply a AAA rating to the country's debt, despite its severe economic dislocation.

U.S. Recovery Will Be Slower Than Previous Upturns

According to a new report from UCLA, the U.S. economic recovery will be slower than previous recovery periods. Americans will be saving more to get themselves out of debt while companies will be hesitant to expand because of lack of public-policy clarity from the Obama Administration.

Railroad Indicator Says Economy Gaining Steam

America's railways are the circulatory system of the economy, so any evidence that points to rail's recovery is a good sign for the future. Happily, a new report suggests rail freight shipments are gaining momentum.

Europe's Debt Crisis: Here We Go Again?

Europe's shakiest economies managed to ride out a sovereign debt crisis this spring with a lot of help from their more stable neighbors and the major central banks. But with global recovery faltering, the data coming out of Europe suggests we may soon see a replay of the debt default crisis.

Economic Growth Revised Lower for Second Quarter

U.S. economic growth slowed to an anemic 1.6% pace in the second quarter, due primarily to a worsening trade imbalance. The sole ray of light in the Commerce Department's report was that the downward revision was not as severe as economists had expected.

Double-Dip Recession? Yield Curve Says No

Despite what so many pundits say, the most accurate economic predictor -- the yield curve -- says we're not heading for a double-dip recession. But don't celebrate too much: We're still in the recession that started in 2007, and projections predict continued sluggish growth ahead.

Investors Racing to Safety in Treasurys Could Get Burned

Investors spooked by deflation and a possible double dip could be adding much more risk in buying Treasurys at current prices than they realize. Clear evidence of collapsing prices is scant. And some shrewd investors have been exiting Treasurys even as others stream in.

Romer Resigns: A Chance to Reset Economic Policy?

The departure of Christina Romer as chair of President Obama's Council of Economic Advisers ought to prompt a rethink of U.S. economic policy -- but it won't, even though Friday's jobs numbers showed tepid progress on creating jobs for the millions put out of work by the recession.

Services Sector Index Unexpectedly Rose in July

The Institute for Supply Management's Non-Manufacturing Index showed the vital U.S. services sector expanding faster in July, which means a reduced risk of the nation's economy falling into a double-dip recession. What's more, July%u2019s data also points to an increase in hiring.

GDP Growth Weaker in the Second Quarter

The U.S. economy down-shifted in the second quarter as it grew a tepid 2.4%: too slow a pace to reduce unemployment and boost sales. However, that disappointing stat was offset somewhat by an upward revision of first-quarter GDP growth to 3.7% from the previously-estimated 2.7%.

A Surprise 1% Drop in June's Durable Goods Orders

U.S. durable goods orders unexpectedly fell 1% in June, their largest decline since August 2009. That was in sharp contrast to the predictions of the Bloomberg survey, which had forecast orders to increase 1%. The drop provides more evidence that the nation's economic recovery has slowed.

Double-Dip? One Reliable Measure Says It's Inevitable

An economic indicator with a perfect 40-year history of predicting recessions just signaled that a double-dip is coming for sure. The Economic Cycle Research Institute, an independent organization of economists, is best known for publishing the economy's "leading indicators" that we in the media sometimes like to chatter about. And on Friday, the institute said its ECRI Weekly Leading Index "growth rate" broke below -10%.

Figuring Out the Fed: What Will Bernanke Do?

In his latest Capitol Hill testimony, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke said the U.S. economic outlook is "unusually uncertain," and was opaque about his plans. But don't confuse that with an unwillingness to act. Here's a look a what the Fed's likely options are:

Leading Economic Index Dips Again as Recovery Ebbs

June%u2019s 0.2% dip in the Leading Economic Index provided more evidence that the U.S. economic recovery has slowed, and that the slowdown will continue into autumn -- something that will complicate policymakers' task of lowering the nation's high unemployment rate.

Survey: Recovery Continues, but at Slower Pace

With so much talk about the possibility that the nation is slipping into a double-dip recession, a new economic survey by the National Association of Business Economics shows the U.S. recovery continued through the second quarter, although at a slower pace than earlier in the year.