As earlier bouts of alarmism over Europe, then a double-dip recession and then deflation fade away, a new bogeyman is taking their place: Inflation, and the damage it could do to profits and stocks. Yes, prices are rising, but the main pain will be felt most among America's poorest.
Dire warnings about higher prices notwithstanding, not everyone in the consumer-staple sector expects to be a sorry victim of inflation. Count General Mills among those who aren't afraid of the inflation bogey. It has been raising prices, and analysts are applauding.
The nation's struggle to prevent deflation is apparently only just beginning. The 12-month core rate (excluding food and energy prices) fell to a record low 0.6% from 0.8% in September. Clearly, the Fed has more work to do.
The current flatness in prices isn't what the Federal Reserve wants. It would much rather see a little more inflation in the economy. Says Great Depression scholar Ben Bernanke: "Further disinflation would be unwelcome." The Fed has work to do on that score.
The search giant may use its vast database of Web-shopping data to construct a daily measure of inflation called the Google Price Index, or GPI. It can be calculated more quickly than the official CPI, but it covers only what can be sold on the Web.
Consumer prices dip in April while core inflation posts smallest 12-month gain in 44 years.
Most investors know that large budget deficits can lead to an increase in inflation. However, given the current price trend, to remove fiscal, or monetary, stimulus now would be precisely the wrong policy to follow: deflation, not inflation, remains the bigger threat to the economy.
