The technical signs suggest we're at a crucial point for stocks: Either a decisive rise or a dramatic fall is coming. And if you're the type to dismiss technical analysis as unscientific voodoo, you're missing the point: It's not about pattern matching, it's about human psychology.
Reports from the ultra-elite Swiss meeting show that CEOs are far more optimistic than they've been for years. Considering their cash hoards, an M&A wave is likely. But they're unmoved by the idea that they should create societal value.
The bank now says positive trends in consumer spending, employment and the stock market will likely boost U.S. economic growth higher than the 3% most analysts had previously predicted. Deutsche's chief equity strategist is predicting a 23% rise in the stock market for 2011.
The CBOE's Volatility Index, known as the VIX, has been trending lower, which many analysts consider a sign that stocks are due for a fall. But another argument says it's all relative, and in today's environment a lower VIX may suggest a continuing rally.
A supposed truism on Wall Street is that betting against the crowd is always a wise move. And these days, the crowd is decidedly bullish. Yes, that's often a sign that the end is near. But right now, a good argument can be made that things will still get better.
With analysts expecting the stock market to rally, investors are feeling bullish. But are they too bullish? High investor confidence has often signaled a market turn for the worse in the past. Other indicators also show cause for caution.
For a host of reasons, when the dollar spikes, stocks drop, and when the dollar falls, stocks soar. Right now, with dollar sentiment reaching maximum bearishness, contrarians are preparing for the next shift. If the dollar rises again, stocks could reverse.
The far-sighted ones are looking beyond the election and Fed and seeing a robust global manufacturing rebound and impressive corporate earnings. These strong fundamentals are finally overcoming risk aversion -- and could set the stage for an equity rally.
Investor sentiment is a remarkably accurate contrarian indicator: When investors become exuberantly bullish, the market is nearing a high, and when investors are strongly bearish, market lows are a good bet. Be warned: Right now, the charts show the sort of optimism that precedes a fall.
If you're tired of watching your stocks go up and down without making any firm gains, consider a contrarian investment strategy. It's riskier, but the payoff can be big. Contrarian fund manager Don Hodges offers three stock picks for 2011.