Interest rates have to start rising again soon, and while higher rates are generally good for people looking to put new money to work in the bond market, those who already own bonds could take a bath on their supposedly "safe" investments.
Bonds have outperformed stocks over the last 30-year period, but things are changing and bonds are no longer the safe haven they once were. In fact, bonds already look overvalued, and if rock-bottom interest rates keep moving higher, bond funds could plunge.
That giant sucking sound you hear is money -- lots of it -- fleeing global stock markets for the safe havens of the U.S., German, and U.K. sovereign bond markets. It's fear talking -- fear of intensifying crisis in the eurozone.
About a month ago, the Germany government sold $5 billion worth of Eurobonds that paid an average interest rate of -- get this -- negative 0.0122%. That's right: These bonds are guaranteed to lose value. So why did they sell? In a word, it's all about risk.
For the first time in several decades, the 30-year annualized returns of Treasury bonds surpassed the dividend adjusted gains of the S&P 500 in 2011. Take a picture if you want -- because this won't last.
When some new members of Congress recently said they oppose raising the U.S. debt limit, it triggered warnings of "catastrophic consequences." Indeed, the result wouldn't be pretty. But here's what's at stake as the country's debt burden swells every year.
The Federal Reserve is doling out billions to buy bonds in hopes of keeping interest rates low and stimulating the economy. However, several powerful forces are working against that low-rate strategy, ranging from investor psychology to global competition for capital.
Doomsayers insist the recent rapid rise in yields means the nation's creditors are finally getting fed up with financing U.S. deficits. But a stronger argument says the cause is better-than-expected economic reports that have been piling up recently.
Republican leaders may be worried about the Federal Reserve's second round of quantitative easing, but the stock and credit markets are delighted: They've improved significantly since the plan was announced. But can the rally be solely attributed to QE2?
Nouriel Roubini, the NYU economics professor who has earned the nickname "Dr. Doom" for his predictions, says he's concerned the tax cut compromise struck by President Obama and GOP leaders could expose the U.S. to bond vigilantes who will drive up bond yields, resulting in higher borrowing costs for the federal government.
Analysts lately have loudly proclaimed the end of the dollar, leaving investors looking to stay ahead with a choice of betting on stocks, which have 17% fallen in the last decade, or staying "safe" in very low-yield money market funds. But there is an alternative: commodities.
It's no secret that stock investors have suffered through roller-coaster volatility this year for little or no return, while bond investors have been having a ball. The longest-dated Treasury mutual funds have returned nearly 20%. Stocks, meanwhile, have done zilch.
Widespread pessimism among investors seems out of line with broader economic developments, which continue to be mixed. So stocks may be undervalued because investors are being overly conservative -- meaning this could be a good time to buy.
The weakening stock market has investors fleeing for safe havens, like bonds. But some companies have a lot of cash, high operating margins and stocks with high yields -- far better ones than most bonds currently.
Are we headed for a bear market in stocks? Treasury bond yields have taken a hit over the past three months -- a sign, according to an economist, that a bear market could be closer than we realize.