bill gross

At this time last year, maybe you thought the economy would be a bit more gracious by now. No such luck. But as we reflect on the year that was, here are six financial lessons that 2011 taught us all.

From my point of view, we are about to be in heaps of trouble economically, so for 2012, I'm looking to exploit other people's woes like the good capitalist I am. Here are three bets I might pull the trigger on:

Ask the people who invest billions for a living to name their favorite picks for 2012 and you'll get a smorgasbord worthy of a holiday party: Brazilian stocks, U.S. junk bonds, and government debt from Colombia. Ask them what they dislike and they'll name one of the top-performing investments this year: U.S. government bonds.

The technical signs suggest we're at a crucial point for stocks: Either a decisive rise or a dramatic fall is coming. And if you're the type to dismiss technical analysis as unscientific voodoo, you're missing the point: It's not about pattern matching, it's about human psychology.

Bill Gross, the leading proponent of the "New Normal" -- the idea that stocks will return just 3% a year for the foreseeable future -- has been wrong over and over again. So why does anyone pay attention to his predictions?

Now, even over-the-top bears like bond giant Pimco are doing a bullish about-face, and that makes it tougher for fund managers to keep avoiding the stock market. If they start returning to a historical stock allocation, that could further boost equity prices.

If the agreement between congressional Republicans and President Obama is ratified, Pimco, which manages the world's largest bond fund, says the stimulative measure will contribute much to economic growth -- and to the deficit.

The S&P 500 has rebounded 20% since its July 2010 low, which comes as bad news to perma-bears like Nouriel Roubini, Gary Shilling and Bill Gross, all of whom predicted the opposite. This raises several questions about how stocks move, and why pundits say the things they do.

Despite the pessimistic taking hold, a growing roster of high-profile money managers are balking at at this theme, arguing that it's wrong-headed and self-defeating. Plus, good money can still be made in the markets.

How can investors earn double-digit returns? According to bond guru Bill Gross, they probably can't: "A future of low investment returns, and a heap of trouble for those expecting more, is what lies ahead," Gross warns in his latest investment outlook.