Bonds have outperformed stocks over the last 30-year period, but things are changing and bonds are no longer the safe haven they once were. In fact, bonds already look overvalued, and if rock-bottom interest rates keep moving higher, bond funds could plunge.
U.S. bond prices fell Wednesday on violence in Libya. An auction of $35 billion in five-year notes met with little demand, while 10-year Treasury prices fell 22 cents per $100 invested. Stocks also declined as a result of the Libyan instability.
Hoping to add some safety against inflation to their portfolios, many folks have been investing in Treasury inflation-protected securities -- TIPS. So now that inflation is on the horizon, they should be sitting pretty, right? Unfortunately not. Here's why.
When pros like Warren Buffett and Goldman Sachs start making moves predicated on the expectation of higher rates, investors best take note. The impact of higher rates would be widespread, especially on so-called safe havens like Treasury bonds and gold.
A rapidly growing list of reports shows a U.S. economic recovery that's far stronger than most had anticipated just months ago. And both deflation and inflation seem less likely to explode. All this is boosting the dollar -- and could soon dim the gold bugs' argument.
U.S. mortgage rates have grown for five straight weeks, in the last week hitting their highest levels in seven months. Ten-year Treasury note yields have been climbing on inflation concerns, driving the higher rates.
The bonds have the U.S. government's full backing. But investors this week are waking up to an entirely different risk: the alarming drop in bond values and rising yields. And the reason for that may less a tax-cut-fueled deficit than brightening economic prospects.
Nouriel Roubini, the NYU economics professor who has earned the nickname "Dr. Doom" for his predictions, says he's concerned the tax cut compromise struck by President Obama and GOP leaders could expose the U.S. to bond vigilantes who will drive up bond yields, resulting in higher borrowing costs for the federal government.
Major structural and cultural differences between the U.S. and Japan mean that Treasury bond investors simply using Japan as a template for how things will unfold here may be overlooking important factors. Key among them is a growing realization that Japan may have collectively opted for deflation.
Despite what so many pundits say, the most accurate economic predictor -- the yield curve -- says we're not heading for a double-dip recession. But don't celebrate too much: experts still see sluggish growth ahead.
With more big names raising concerns about overheated T-bonds, what's an investor with a Treasury-heavy portfolio to do? Some ideas: Consider corporate bonds or perhaps stick with government debt, but only short-term securities.
