From my point of view, we are about to be in heaps of trouble economically, so for 2012, I'm looking to exploit other people's woes like the good capitalist I am. Here are three bets I might pull the trigger on:
Ask the people who invest billions for a living to name their favorite picks for 2012 and you'll get a smorgasbord worthy of a holiday party: Brazilian stocks, U.S. junk bonds, and government debt from Colombia. Ask them what they dislike and they'll name one of the top-performing investments this year: U.S. government bonds.
Beware of the constant metaphors used to frame the world economy as if it were a war or zero-sum competition. Investors should remember that economies cooperate as much as they compete on the world stage. The current U.S. manufacturing boom is a case study.
Bill Gross, the leading proponent of the "New Normal" -- the idea that stocks will return just 3% a year for the foreseeable future -- has been wrong over and over again. So why does anyone pay attention to his predictions?
Now, even over-the-top bears like bond giant Pimco are doing a bullish about-face, and that makes it tougher for fund managers to keep avoiding the stock market. If they start returning to a historical stock allocation, that could further boost equity prices.
The biggest question many investors have about President Obama's compromise tax cut deal is how it will benefit the economy. But so far, there is little agreement on Wall Street about what the stimulative effects of the deal will be.
If the agreement between congressional Republicans and President Obama is ratified, Pimco, which manages the world's largest bond fund, says the stimulative measure will contribute much to economic growth -- and to the deficit.
The "new normal" coined by Pimco posits a long era of diminished earnings and stock prices as overleveraged consumers and companies cut back. But it's not playing out that way. It seems Corporate America is growing less and less dependent on America.
Despite the pessimistic taking hold, a growing roster of high-profile money managers are balking at at this theme, arguing that it's wrong-headed and self-defeating. Plus, good money can still be made in the markets.
How can investors earn double-digit returns? According to bond guru Bill Gross, they probably can't: "A future of low investment returns, and a heap of trouble for those expecting more, is what lies ahead," Gross warns in his latest investment outlook.
Investors spooked by deflation and a possible double dip could be adding much more risk in buying Treasurys at current prices than they realize. And some shrewd investors have been exiting Treasurys.
Hedge funds are doubling down on inflation by buying gold. Institutions are buying corporate bonds -- a wager on deflation. Should you follow them? And if so, which way?
Providers of exchange-traded funds and notes had a strong 2009 and the new year is shaping up to bring more of the same. But what's good for ETF companies isn't necessarily good for investors.
Many retirement accounts are in tatters, but it turns out that a select few investing pros have produced exceptional gains -- in some cases more than 200 percent in cumulative returns -- over a most difficult decade.
