NBER

Double-Dip Recession? Yield Curve Says No

Despite what so many pundits say, the most accurate economic predictor -- the yield curve -- says we're not heading for a double-dip recession. But don't celebrate too much: experts still see sluggish growth ahead.

Economic Surge Caps 2009

Is the recession finally over? It may well be, after the U.S. economy surged a better-than-expected 5.7% in the fourth quarter of 2009. The growth, driven by inventory gains, marks two consecutive quarters of GDP expansion -- usually long enough for the National Bureau of Economic Research to declare the end of a slump.