Miller Tabak

ADP excludes government jobs. It's also notoriously volatile and has a history of big misses in forecasting the official Labor Department payroll report. But perhaps most important is that it just doesn't jibe with other recent data points -- or the recovery's pace.

Far more jobs were lost than expected in December, but the overall rate remained at 10%. Indeed, the report held a little something for bulls and bears alike. But one thing is starting to become clear: It appears unemployment has peaked.