The climbing yield on the 10-year Treasury note -- now 3.70%, a nine-month high -- can mean bad things for economic growth and stock prices. But not yet, if market guru Jeffrey Kleintop is right. He says the 10-year Treasury needs to be higher than 5% before it hurts stocks.
As much as the market and Corporate America may like what they heard in the president's speech Tuesday night, history shows Obama's reelection in 2012 remains pinned to boosting Americans' income growth to at least 3%. Problem is, right now it's running at just 1.4%.
The S&P 500 gained about 13% last year, but it didn't get much help while companies were releasing results. That index was unchanged or lower for all four of 2010's earnings seasons, and it could repeat this pattern now.
Despite some big gains lately, the market has been range-bound for months, with the S&P 500 turning positive for 2010 only on Tuesday. What can shake this torpor? If history is any guide, the coming midterm elections.
