Consumer Sentiment Index

Bad economic news across the board is weighing on Americans' mood this month. The consumer sentiment index fell to a 5-month low in March, thanks to increases in the U.S. trade deficit, higher jobless claims, and a more than 40-cent jump in the price of a gallon of gas.

The markets may have had a rough weak as U.S. GDP growth was revised down and Middle East unrest caused oil prices to rise, but the consumer sentiment index rose to its highest level since January 2008. Sentiment has risen for about six months -- an encouraging sign -- but oil prices could sour the mood.

Another good week for the U.S. economy: Initial jobless claims fell below the key 400,000 level, and the consumer sentiment index rose to its highest point in eight months, indicating that Americans are increasingly confident that better days are ahead.

The latest consumer sentiment index reading continues to show an American public that expects better days ahead, and fourth quarter GDP growth indicates a strengthening economy. But countervailing pressures remain: Initial jobless claims unexpectedly rose, and gas prices are high.

A quiet week for earnings, along with new reports on consumer credit, consumer sentiment, economic optimism, wholesale trade, the U.S. trade balance and federal budget balance, should give the stock markets a chance to settle down after last week's volatility.

The consumer sentiment index rose a better than expected 3.9 points in November to 71.6 -- its highest level since June, as Americans sensed modest improvement in the job market. Its still below historic norms, though, and sustained job growth will be needed to send America's mood higher.

The consumer sentiment index rose to its highest level in five months in November, propelled by a slightly better economic outlook. However, despite the gain, sentiment remains at a low level, and not high enough to suggest a surge in consumer spending anytime soon.

September's consumer sentiment level unexpectedly rose to 68.2 from its preliminary 66.6 reading. However, the entire gain came from more positive responses among households earning under $75,000 -- those who wouldn't be affected by a failure to extend the Bush income tax cuts for the rich.

The yawning gap -- the largest since tracking began in 1992 -- between these two measures is telling us something. And chances are it's saying consumers know better than the economic indicators what's really going on in the U.S. economy.