Lower Deficit Predictions May Hamper U.S. Budget Deal
The recovering economy is producing greater tax revenues, but an improving deficit picture also reflects the accumulating effects of prior rounds of spending cuts.
The recovering economy is producing greater tax revenues, but an improving deficit picture also reflects the accumulating effects of prior rounds of spending cuts.
The U.S. Treasury said Friday that it took in a rare surplus of $113 billion in April, the largest in five years.
Allowing income tax rates to rise for wealthy Americans, and maintaining rates for the less affluent, would not hurt U.S. economic growth much in 2013, the Congressional Budget Office said on Thursday, stepping into a dispute between Republicans and Democrats over how to resolve the so-called "fiscal cliff."
Let's take the politics out of the debate over public sector unions and their benefits, and look strictly at the figures. When you strip away the rhetoric, you can chart two macroeconomic trends and two patterns of fiscally foolish assumptions that have put both states and unions into this mess.
Washington now spends that much more than it did a mere three years ago. But trying to figure out what we're getting for all that extra money is no simple matter. A lot of slicing and dicing does yield some answers -- none of which are very satisfying.
Like all budgets, the federal government's spending plan is all about revenues and expenditures. Unfortunately, Uncle Sam is very good at grossly overestimating tax receipts and grossly underestimating spending. It's enough to make you wonder if any of it is real.
The tax cut compromise between Obama and the GOP is now being touted as a back-door stimulus plan, one that some economists predict will create or save 3.1 million jobs. Unfortunately, the model on which those forecasts are based makes some flawed assumptions.
By some calculations, the Obama plan will help trim future budget gaps. But other figures show it'll only make things worse. The problem is that no one knows for sure right now, and that makes sensible spending choices ever harder to make.
Experts have said for some time that the Social Security fund would run out of money between 2035 and 2040. But new data show that payouts will exceed collections this year. Why? High unemployment means fewer paychecks to tax.











