50-day moving average

With the markets off their recent highs and volatility picking up, investors have to ask: Is this just a brief dip in the uptrend, or a more ominous change of trend? Many analysts are emphasizing the bullish case, based on the gathering global economic recovery. But some of the key indicators suggest a different story.

The much-awaited third-quarter gross domestic product number to be released Thursday is expected to show a 3.5 percent increase. In the view of most economists, a positive number will mark the end of the recession which began in late 2008. But a positive print in the GDP is so widely expected that...