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Is Dollar Tree\'s stock as cheap as its prices?

Posted 4:45 PM 11/25/09 , ,
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It's no secret that cash-strapped consumers have been flocking to discounters and dollar stores for more than a year. A bit more surprising is that even after a 50% rally off their 52-week low, shares in Dollar Tree Stores (DLTR) still look as cheap as the retailer's wares.

The company posted yet another impressive quarter of profit, sales and operating margin growth Tuesday. Dollar Tree's third-quarter earnings rose 58%, beating Street estimates by an almost embarrassing (for the analysts) 10 cents a share. Sales rose 12%, exceeding expectations by more than $4 million and same-store sales -- a key retailer metric -- grew 6.5%. The company has a nice habit of exceeding analysts' average expectations, by the way, having done so for more than eight consecutive quarters, according to Thomson Reuters.

And yet shares still look compelling on a relative valuation basis. The stock goes for less than 14 times forward earnings, offering a discount of nearly 25% to the S&P 500 ($INX) and 10% to its own five-year average, according to Thomson Reuters. Meanwhile, by the price-earnings-to-growth (PEG) ratio, which measures how fast a stock is rising relative to its growth prospects, shares trade at a 50% discount to the S&P and a 15% discount to their own five-year average.

Analysts' average price target stands at $58.53, making the implied upside 15% in the next year or so. Of course, if Dollar Tree keeps its string of blowout quarters alive, it probably won't take that long.

Dan Burrows

Dan Burrows

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Markets and Investing Writer

Dan Burrows is a markets and investing writer for DailyFinance. He spent five years at Dow Jones. Most recently he covered investing, markets, tech stocks and the economy at SmartMoney.com. Prior to that he was a reporter at MarketWatch.com. He also covered retail and manufacturing at Women's Wear Daily for three years. In his career, he's had writing stints at Time Inc.'s FYI and Spy magazines, and has freelanced for Esquire and Maxim, among other publications.

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