Where's the iGrowth, Apple?

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Apple To Debut New IPads As Tablet Rivals Crowd Maturing Market
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Apple's (AAPL) quarterly results on Monday afternoon didn't exactly set the world on fire. Analysts gravitated to the bottom line where net income slipped 9 percent, though aggressive share buybacks over the past year softened the blow on a per-share basis to just a 5 percent slide.

The holiday quarter isn't going to be whole lot better. Going with the midpoints of Apple's guidance for revenue and gross margin, we're eyeing gross profit moving from $21.06 billion during last year's fiscal first quarter to $20.91 billion during the seasonally potent winter sales period this time around.

The market's going to fret about a lot of things. Contracting margins and lower selling prices dominate the headlines about Apple. However, the company has an even bigger -- and simpler -- problem at the moment: It isn't growing at the pace that initially attracted growth stock investors during the glory days when it introduced the iPod, iPhone, and iPad.

The Top Line is the Bottom Line

Apple's net sales in its latest quarter -- the consumer tech giant's fiscal fourth quarter since its financial year ends in September -- inched a mere 4.2 percent higher. This has to be particularly shocking to investors believing that the class act of Cupertino is growing a lot faster.
It gets worse.

Apple didn't even have the iPad mini during last year's fiscal fourth quarter; it didn't introduce the smaller, cheaper tablet until November, more than a month after that quarter ended. Apple isn't revealing how many millions of iPad mini devices it sold during these last three months, but overall growth would have probably declined during the quarter if it wasn't for the iPad mini.

The iPhone has never been hotter. Net sales climbed 17 percent during the period, fueled by the 9 million iPhone 5s and iPhone 5c devices it sold the weekend that those smartphones hit the market toward the end of the reporting period. However, we're also seeing iPad, Mac, and iPod revenue plunging 13 percent, 15 percent, and 30 percent respectively over the past period.

There are some good (though unfortunate) explanations for this. The iPad mini lowered the average selling price of Apple's tablets. Mac sales have stalled alongside PC sales in general as consumers flock to smartphones and tablets over desktops and laptops. The iPod's been fading for more than two years now that portable media players essentially live within smartphones and tablets.

And even China proved to be a disappointment. Revenue in the world's most populous nation climbed just 5.6 percent. This is surprising since Apple introduced the iPhone 5c and iPhone 5s in China during the quarter. It waited three months after the stateside release of the iPhone 5 before introducing the bar-raising smartphone to China in December of 2012. In other words, China had a new phone this quarter instead of the tail-end of the iPhone 4S a year earlier. And it still didn't make much of a difference.

Things Can Always Get Worse

Between last month's new iPhones and this month's iPad refresh one would think that this would be a monster quarter for Apple. This is the holiday shopping season, and Apple products typically weigh heavy on Santa's sleigh.

However, Apple on Monday afternoon announced that it is targeting between $55 billion and $58 billion in net sales for this seasonally potent quarter. Apple rang up $54.5 billion in net sales during last year's holiday period. At the midpoint of Apple's guidance we're looking at growth to decelerate to 3.7 percent.

After several years of consistent double-digit growth on the top line, this is shaping up to be Apple's third consecutive quarter of single-digit growth. Yes, things could always be worse. Apple's business could be going the wrong way. However, that's already happening for all of Apple's major product categories outside of the iPhone. The smartphone has become Apple's workhorse, growing from 46 percent of Apple's net sales to 52 percent over the past year.

There has never been a more important time for Apple to shake things up, and innovate its way out of this slow-growth rut.

What happened to that blazing speed that Apple used to show off every three months? The market's waxing nostalgic about the golden days of iGrowth.

Motley Fool contributor Rick Munarriz has no position in any stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool recommends Apple. The Motley Fool owns shares of Apple. Try any of our newsletter services free for 30 days.

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amosbyrd

Apple Computer is about to enter into a complete free fall!

I've seen it before, and it's going to happen again.
Apple has become a disjointed, disorganized mess.
The various parts of the company are out of control.
The Mac people don't talk to the IPad people, who don't talk to the IOS group, or the OS group or the IPod people: at all.

Their products don't work well together. They are full of bugs, and the new upgrades are much worse than the ones they are replacing.

For examples: OS 10.9 Maverick is a complete disaster. It is full of bugs, Videos don't work, Tags are awful dots instead of highlights, and worse of all IPads can no longer Sync with the Mac Computers; except thru the ICloud.

In fact, the ICloud is exactly what I'm talking about. ICloud is a complete farce. It's nothing more than the old IBM Mainframe Business Plan. Instead of terminals, you use your computer. The exact same thing that failed decades ago. What part of PC, i.e., PERSONAL COMPUTER, does Apple not get???

There's no need for any individual, or especially a company or Government Agency, to ever use ICloud. You don't need the storage space, because you can buy personal storage devices in the TERRA BITE size for under $100 at Costco. You can upload your files and pictures to multiple web sites if you want to share them. Plus, it's a major SECURITY PROBLEM!

The only thing ICloud gives you is a great place to have all personal and company data HACKED, STOLEN, LOST, BECOME UNAVAILABLE, and cost you more money than you could have provided the exact same storage at you desk top or company computer site.

It's the old Razor and Razor Blade Business Plan. Apple's Bean Counters think they can send everybody back to 1960s and 70s main frames, where they can roll in the money selling connectivity to your own data. Well, it didn't work then and it won't work now. Only a complete idiot would ever put their precious data up on some open site on the Internet where anyone can hack into it.

And, don't give me a lot of bull about how safe it is, I've operated similar sites across the world for decades: and none of them are ever safe. These are contractor owned sites. They can even go bankrupt and hold your data hostage until you pay me, or the courts, to get it back. Don't think so, then consult your local attorney for an eye opener.

The saddest thing is that Apple CEO Tim Cook is making the exact same mistakes Scully made when Job's was fired. Unfortunately, now, there is no Steve Jobs to rescue this impending disaster. It makes me so frustrated, having used and recommended Apple products for decades. Even, serving on past EIA Scientific Committees with the WOZ. I can't stand seeing it happen all over again.

I hope Cook gets this message and reorganizes Apple into a cohesive company, that makes great new products again. Not just over engineered rehashed Crap like Maverick. Or, disappointing products like IPad Air (nothing new). JUST SAD, SAD, SAD.

October 31 2013 at 9:46 AM Report abuse rate up rate down Reply