Labor Department Whiffs Payrolls Report, Unemployment Rate Almost Fake

US_Dept_of_LaborThe Labor Department's report on the Employment Situation for December is turning out to be a disaster, and the unemployment rate itself seems more than confusing. This report has all the hallmarks of a report which could see serious revisions. What stands out the most is that the workforce participation rate is absolutely atrocious.

The ADP report set a tone for much higher job creations, but the non-farm payrolls report in December came in at only 74,000. The consensus estimate from Bloomberg was higher at 200,000, and the whisper number had even risen higher than that. This was also worse than all estimates because the range of estimates was 120,000 to 225,000.

Private sector payrolls also grew only minimally, up to 87,000 in December. Bloomberg's consensus estimate was 189,000, and the whisper was also higher there. The private sector payrolls missed all estimates as well because the range of estimates was 120,000 to 220,000.

Where this report gets very confusing is on the formal unemployment report. This dropped down to 6.7% in December from 7.0% previously. Bloomberg and Dow Jones were both looking for 7.0% to remain flat.

The numbers from October and November in payrolls were revised higher by a combined 38,000.

Where the decline in unemployment is so complicated is because of a poor labor force participation rate, down to 62.8%. This is now the lowest participation rate in over three decades.


Filed under: Jobs

Learn about investing from the comfort of your own home.

Portfolio Basics

Take the first steps to building your portfolio.

View Course »

Investment Strategies

Learn the strategies you need to build a winning portfolio

View Course »

Add a Comment

*0 / 3000 Character Maximum

1 Comment

Filter by:
Kyle Lyles

Funny that the Dept of Propaganda aka MSM doesn't report on this. Seems that they just hate to make Owebama look as bad as he is.

January 12 2014 at 3:25 PM Report abuse rate up rate down Reply