Will CenturyLink Bounce Back This Quarter?

On Wednesday, CenturyLink will release its latest quarterly results. The key to making smart investment decisions on stocks reporting earnings is to anticipate how they'll do before they announce results, leaving you fully prepared to respond quickly to whatever inevitable surprises arise. 

Along with many telecom companies, CenturyLink was a favorite among dividend investors because of its high payout yield. But in February, the company cut that dividend, sending the shares plunging. Let's take an early look at what's been happening with CenturyLink over the past quarter and what we're likely to see in its report.

Stats on CenturyLink

Analyst EPS Estimate

$0.69

Change From Year-Ago EPS

1.5%

Revenue Estimate

$4.51 billion

Change From Year-Ago Revenue

(2.1%)

Earnings Beats in Past 4 Quarters

3


Source: Yahoo! Finance.

Will CenturyLink's earnings recover from last quarter's crisis?
In recent months, analysts have gotten more optimistic about CenturyLink's earnings prospects. They've added $0.03 per share to their estimates for the first quarter and $0.02 to their full-year 2013 consensus figures. The stock is down 7% since late January but has recovered much of the ground it lost after its February dividend cut.

For years, investors turned to lesser-known telecom companies for high dividend yields. Windstream and Frontier Communications became especially popular, as they focused on rural areas where consumers have fewer choices on where to get telecom services. Even though those businesses have been in slow decline, both Frontier and Windstream have made efforts to broaden their offerings to keep up with competition in broadband Internet and business services, with varying degrees of success. Windstream has managed to keep its dividend steady, but Frontier had to cut its dividend twice in recent years, sending its shares down substantially.

CenturyLink often gets put in the same class as Windstream and Frontier, but it's much larger than either of its two rivals. Moreover, it's been working hard to get out in front of the declines in residential landlines and other decaying businesses, as its acquisition of Savvis has helped it move forward in the cloud-computing space. Working with enterprises to stay up to date on their tech needs carries much better growth prospects than traditional telecom services, and CenturyLink's future hinges on its ability to compete with other players in that key niche and in other higher-growth areas.

CenturyLink has had some recent success with government contracts as well. Last month, the company got a 10-year contract with the Defense Department to provide network services for the agency's supercomputers across the country. With a value of as much as $750 million, the contract establishes CenturyLink's place as the third-largest telecom company in the U.S.

In CenturyLink's quarterly report, look for the company to report on its broader capital restructuring. With the company having restructured its debt and now looking to look at share buybacks rather than sending out as much cash in dividends, CenturyLink has the capacity to keep rebounding from its dividend-cut-inspired downturn.

CenturyLink's dividend yield has fallen substantially since its payout cut, but Frontier Communications still has a temptingly juicy dividend. But every Frontier investor has to understand that it's not a sure thing, and investors may eventually be destined for another disappointing dividend cut? In this premium research report on Frontier Communications, we walk you through all of the key opportunities and threats facing the company. To learn more, click here and get your copy today.

Click here to add CenturyLink to My Watchlist, which can find all of our Foolish analysis on it and all your other stocks.

The article Will CenturyLink Bounce Back This Quarter? originally appeared on Fool.com.

Fool contributor Dan Caplinger has no position in any stocks mentioned. You can follow him on Twitter @DanCaplinger. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. Try any of our Foolish newsletter services free for 30 days. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

Copyright © 1995 - 2013 The Motley Fool, LLC. All rights reserved. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

Learn about investing from the comfort of your own home.

Portfolio Basics

Take the first steps to building your portfolio.

View Course »

Investment Strategies

Learn the strategies you need to build a winning portfolio

View Course »

Add a Comment

*0 / 3000 Character Maximum

2 Comments

Filter by:
Kraig Beahn

This just in! CenturyLink's Nationwide Outage is perceived to be as a result of: "Outage Description: CenturyLink technicians have resolved a software issue in the listed market and all customers should now be back in service."

May 07 2013 at 2:10 PM Report abuse rate up rate down Reply
Kraig Beahn

I'm guessing that a nationwide outage that lasts hours on end could potentially hold CenturyLink back from "bouncing back"?

FierceTelecom - "CenturyLink suffers Internet outage in 21 states"

This issue started at 4AM 5/7/2013 and lasted until just a few moments ago, at least in the Tallahassee/North Florida region. The outage took out a good bit of their national network, not just the local region.

Article - http://www.fiercetelecom.com/story/centurylink-wades-through-nationwide-internet-outage-customers-21-states-af/2013-05-07

Video - http://cdn.l2net.com/content/video/CTLFL-Outage-BGP-05072013.mp4

May 07 2013 at 2:03 PM Report abuse +1 rate up rate down Reply