Four Crazy Market Statistics: DJIA, VIX, Crude and Treasuries
Mar 12th 2013 4:46PM
Updated Mar 13th 2013 6:50AM
The DJIA winning streak continues, S&P 500 does not… The S&P 500 Index might have closed down slightly with a 3.74 drop breaking its 7 day winning streak, but the Dow Jones Industrial Average barely closed up on the day but at yet another record high closing price and that makes eight days in a row for the DJIA. The last negative day on the DJIA was February 28 at a close of 14,054.49 versus a closing bell price of 14,450.06 on Tuesday, March 12 for a streak of 2.8%. The NIKKEI 225 in Japan broke an 8-day winning streak.
The CBOE Volatility Index finally went back up as the S&P was negative and the index rose 6.3% to 12.29. That is historically very low and perhaps should be called "The Complacency Index" rather than "The Fear Index." We would note that the new 52-week range for the VIX is 11.50 to 27.73. Since the latest consecutive stock rally, the VIX fell from 15.50 down to under 12 before Tuesday's gain.
West Texas Crude is up 2.6% since bottoming out 7 trading sessions ago around $90.50 per barrel at the close of $92.80 today. What happens if the recovery manages to continue recovering?
Bonds may have pulled back down in yield from the near-term highs, but in the last 90 days interest rates have continued to rise. The 10-Year Treasury Note is up over 30 basis points at about 2.02%. The 30-Year Treasury Bond is also still up more than 30 basis from 90 days ago, at 3.22% versus 2.89%. You are seeing rates tick up in mortgages as well with Zillow saying, "The Thirty year fixed mortgage rate on March 12, 2013, is up 12 basis points from the previous week's average rate of 3.46% and up 38 basis points from the average rate of 3.20% from three months ago."
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