Credit Suisse 2013 Energy Summit Survey: Oil & Gas Investors Are Very Bullish (CS, APC, NBL, PXD, EOG, MRO, HES, APA, DVN, OXY, COP, MUR, XOM, CHV, BHP)
Feb 7th 2013 1:02PM
Updated Feb 8th 2013 6:00AM
The results are in from the Credit Suisse Group (NYSE: CS) 2013 Energy Summit, and investors who were interviewed and surveyed by the Swiss bank remain bullish on the energy sector for 2013. The survey pool consisted of employees from energy companies, hedge funds, long-only investors and a large "other" category. We frequently cover Wall Street analysts and their research on individual stocks or sectors but this outlook is actually from some people who are actually investing and putting money to work in the energy sector.
To quickly put the survey into perspective, when participants were asked their energy sector weighting 68% said they were overweight while 21% said they were neutral. Only 11% were underweight. When asked their largest weighting within energy, refiners and exploration and production (E&P) companies topped the list tied at 26%. The big picture view that can be taken from it was that the participants were very bullish on oil and energy going forward.
When asked "Of the well liked large capitalization stocks which will outperform?" Anadarko Petroleum Corporation (NYSE: APC) was the overwhelming choice followed by Noble Energy Inc. (NYSE: NBL), Pioneer Natural Resources Co. (NYSE: PXD), EOG Resources Inc. (NYSE: EOG) and Marathon Oil Corporation (NYSE: MRO). Marathon was notable in that they received no votes for outperforming.
When asked "Which stock is poised for a breakout in 2013?" the results were very closely bunched. The participants top break out choice was Hess Corporation (NYSE: HES) followed by in order by Apache Corp. (NYSE: APA), Devon Energy (NYSE: DVN), Occidental Petroleum Corporation (NYSE: OXY), ConocoPhillips (NYSE: COP) and Murphy Oil Corporation (NYSE: MUR).
One other interesting question asked of the participants especially after they cited so many large cap Independent E&P names was " What is the chance the one of the Integrated Oils like Exxon Mobil Corporation (NYSE: XOM), Chevron Corporation (NYSE: CVX) or even BHP Billiton Ltd (NYSE: BHP) launching a takeover bid for a large cap Independent E&P". A whopping 42% said there was a 50-75% chance, while 27% thought there was a 75-100% chance. Of course, the question is who is the target?
The survey contained many typical general questions but one theme was consistent. The participants felt that oil and gas pricing would stay firm to slightly higher from current levels. They were also generally in agreement that demand from China, India and the Middle East would drive pricing and profits, while growth production from the US, Russia, OPEC and other countries could weigh on pricing and profits.
We wanted to know how the survey results look against the consensus. We included each stock mentioned herein below, along with the current share price and the one-year forward consensus price target from Thomson Reuters.
Filed under: 24/7 Wall St. Wire, Analyst Calls, Commodities, Commodities & Metals, Mergers & Acquisitions, Mergers and Buy Outs, Oil & Gas, Polls, Value Investing Tagged: APA, APC, BHP, CHV, COP, CS, DVN, EOG, featured, HES, MRO, MUR, NBL, OXY, PXD, XOM