Why Molycorp Shares Tanked Once Again
Jan 23rd 2013 3:34PM
Updated Jan 23rd 2013 4:30PM
Although we don't believe in timing the market or panicking over market movements, we do like to keep an eye on big changes -- just in case they're material to our investing thesis.
What: Shares of struggling rare-earth elements producer Molycorp shed a further 10% Wednesday -- on the heels of a devastating 20% collapse just a couple of weeks earlier -- after the company announced plans to raise at least $300 million in capital through a combination of a share offering ($200 million-$230 million) and an offering of convertible senior notes due 2018 ($100 million-$115 million). Additionally, the company proposes to lend $40 million in common stock to Morgan Stanley , in order to "facilitate the notes offering" and procure a "nominal lending fee."
So what: Alongside the company's recent admission that the major expansion and modernization initiative at its flagship Mountain Pass mine in California would not achieve phase one commercial production until at least mid-year, Molycorp had warned the market that it was "evaluating its capital needs for 2013." Given the severe weakness in prices for rare-earth products that is expected to remain through at least the first half of the year, however, the scale of this latest offering appears to have unnerved market participants. Along with the $414 million raised last August, the stakes have grown extremely high for a company facing a very difficult market environment, even once it does achieve commercial production.
Now what: With its observable volatility, challenging market environment, and growing debt burden, Molycorp's shares are quite unsuitable for most risk-averse investors. That being said, the potential payoff -- in the event that rare-earth prices do regain strength and Molycorp can execute more effectively on the remainder of its aggressive growth initiative -- could be truly enormous. It reminds me a bit of how bulk shipper DryShips looked to me back in early 2011 when that company chased aggressive growth in the face of extreme distress in its primary market. Hindsight now informs us that the right play was to steer well clear of that stock. What the right play for Molycorp will prove to be, meanwhile, is anyone's guess.
In preparation for a premium research report on the company that will soon be available from The Motley Fool, I am diving deep into Molycorp's long-term prospects to emerge as a dominant force in the global market for rare-earth metals, alloys, and specialized downstream product applications. Those prospects, in my view, remain intact, and the potential long-term gains could be substantial. But this remains a high-risk investment vehicle that Fools will wish to approach with appropriate caution. For a mining stock that I consider one of the lowest-risk vehicles in its industry, please access my premium report on Goldcorp today by clicking here.
The article Why Molycorp Shares Tanked Once Again originally appeared on Fool.com.Fool contributor Christopher Barker owns shares of Molycorp. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. Try any of our Foolish newsletter services free for 30 days. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
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