Not long ago, Apple's surge led market pundits to wonder whether it could hit $1,000 per share. In a past video, Eric Bleeker looked at forces that could drive the company to $800 a share, and today, as a balanced look at the company, he also examines the bear case: what could move Apple to $400 per share.
At $400, Apple would trade at about nine times today's earnings. However, that ratio would fall back to less than six times earnings after factoring in Apple's expected cash gains this quarter.
That kind of continuing P/E contraction seems unlikely, with Apple continuing to grow. However, with Apple expected to post negative earnings this holiday season, there is a scenario to be considered where falling iPhone pricing causes negative earnings growth across next year. Anytime a major tech company appears to be falling behind, such single-digit P/E multiples aren't uncommon -- just look at Intel, today trading at a similar multiple. Intel's a dominant company, but it's also seeing negative revenue growth, and investors fear it's falling behind in key areas.
That doesn't mean Apple will fall back to $400 or see a single-digit P/E, but its important for Apple investors to understand the threats ahead. To see Eric's full thoughts on the Apple bear case, make sure to watch the video.
What's inside Supernova?
While Apple might be falling in recent months, the past decade has been one of stunning success for the company. Apple has been a longtime selection of Motley Fool co-founder David Gardner, helping lead his stock picks to gains of more than 113% in our Stock Advisor service since it launched in 2002. Those returns have beaten the market by more than 87%. David has managed to trounce the market by always being on the lookout for revolutionary stocks and recommending them before Wall Street catches on to their disruptive potential. If you're interested in how David discovers his winners, click here to get instant access to a personal tour behind David's Supernova service.
The article What Could Drive Apple Down to $400? originally appeared on Fool.com.Eric Bleeker has no positions in the stocks mentioned above. The Motley Fool owns shares of Apple and Intel. Motley Fool newsletter services recommend Apple and Intel. Try any of our Foolish newsletter services free for 30 days. We Fools don't all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
Copyright © 1995 - 2013 The Motley Fool, LLC. All rights reserved. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.