Navigant Releases North American Natural Gas Market Outlook, Fall 2012
Highlights outlook for the North American natural gas market, including: supply, demand, imports and exports, and prices at key market points
SACRAMENTO, Calif.--(BUSINESS WIRE)-- Navigant (NYS: NCI) released its bi-annual natural gas outlook, North American Natural Gas Market Outlook, Fall 2012, which includes Navigant's forecast for natural gas prices, supply and demand through 2035. The Fall 2012Outlook focuses on changing natural gas demand including increases to Navigant's expectations for LNG exports in North America.
According to the Fall 2012 Outlook, significant natural gas demand growth in North America will occur over the next decade, driven by a combination of greater use of gas-fired generation plants and higher natural gas demand for industrial use. Much of the projected growth in the medium-term will be due to increased coal-to-gas substitution in the power sector as a result of persistently low but slowly increasing natural gas prices, as well as significant scheduled retirements of existing coal-fired generation plants expected across the United States over the next five to seven years.
Highlights of North American Natural Gas Market Outlook, Fall 2012 include:
- Natural gas use in the power generation sector to increase 55 percent from 28.9 Bcfd in 2012 to 44.8 Bcfd in 2035
- A projected 37 percent increase in total natural gas demand in North America over the period to 2035; from 76.4 Bcfd in 2012 to 104.6 Bcfd in 2035
- Sustained development of onshore natural gas resources with shale gas production in North America continuing to grow, increasing from 27.4 Bcfd in 2012 to 75.5 Bcfd in 2035, representing 33 percent and 63 percent of total dry production, respectively. These are in relation to the U.S. market where shale currently represents 38 percent of U.S. production, but increasing to 66 percent in 2035.
- A modest revival of the industrial sector - including the petrochemical sector - that will stimulate demand for natural gas from 24.7 Bcfd in 2012 to 34.0 Bcfd in 2035
- A more optimistic view on future North American LNG exports, with a projected total of 6.8 Bcfd of LNG exports by 2020
"The Fall 2012 Outlook is our most current projection for the North American natural gas market including monthly prices over the long term to 2035. Our team has taken a particularly close look at natural gas demand, in a market that has until recently been a 'supply' driven market," says Gordon Pickering, a Director in Navigant's Energy Practice. "With the recent transformation of natural gas supply in North America, ample supply has already driven impactful market responses, which in turn will help redefine a 'new' North American gas market in the future."
Navigant (NYS: NCI) is a specialized, global expert services firm dedicated to assisting clients in creating and protecting value in the face of critical business risks and opportunities. Through senior level engagement with clients, Navigant professionals combine technical expertise in Disputes and Investigations, Economics, Financial Advisory and Management Consulting, with business pragmatism in the highly regulated Construction, Energy, Financial Services and Healthcare industries to support clients in addressing their most critical business needs. More information about Navigant can be found at www.navigant.com.
* The information contained in this press release concerning "North American Natural Gas Market Outlook, Fall 2012," is a summary and reflects Navigant's current expectations based on market data and trend analysis. Navigant's market predictions and expectations are inherently uncertain and actual results may differ materially from those contained in this press release or the Outlook. Navigant undertakes no obligation to update any of the information contained in this press release or the Outlook.
Laverne Murach, 202.481.7336
Navigant Investor Relations
Jennifer Moreno Reddick, 312.573.5634
KEYWORDS: United States North America California Illinois
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