Presidential debateLet's establish one important fact from the top – the upcoming presidential debate will matter. Why?

Well, for three reasons.

First, because this will be the most watched event of this election, and that creates the opportunity for some pretty dramatic outcomes. Second, because this is a volatile race and there are enough undecided and soft leaners (people who lean towards one candidate but could be persuaded to change their minds) to move battleground state polls quite dramatically over the next 30 or so days. And third, because presidential debates are as close as we come to "Thunderdome" politics –- two go in, but only one comes out.

Make no mistake about it: come Thursday morning, there will be a winner. If Romney wins, he will change the narrative of this election and give his flagging campaign some much-needed energy. If Obama wins, he has all but sealed up his re-election. If it is a draw, Obama wins because with so little time remaining Romney needed to do more than draw even.

So with all that being said, here are the five things debate watchers should look for during the October 3 presidential debate.

1. The Unavoidable Tough Question.

Usually, the tough questions are pretty obvious, but sometimes they are so unexpected or brutal that they can truly shake a candidate. If you want to know what that feels like for the candidates, just imagine that awful feeling you get in your stomach when you almost get in a car accident. Now imagine that with tens of millions of people watching. Not so good, right?

What does that all mean for Wednesday night? Well, it depends on whether the question each candidates loathes answering gets asked.

For example, if Romney gets asked what loopholes he would close or how his budget math adds up when everyone says it doesn't, he'd better have an answer; saying he wants to wait until after the election to get specific will be a disaster. If Obama gets asked directly what entitlements changes he would propose or why some of his economic proposals haven't worked, he will have to answer with specifics, avoid excuses, and avoid sounding defensive. Whatever the questions may be, there is one (sometimes more than one) that if you watch closely enough you'll realize was the stomach-turning question.

How each candidate responds at that moment will tell a lot about who wins or loses this debate and the election.

2. Seize-the-Debate Moments

Debates are not about answering policy questions -- any candidate can do that (well, almost any, sans Rick Perry). They are about creating and defining moments that capture voters' attentions and help define you, your opponent, as well as the entire election.

We're not talking about zingers, either. Most zingers are flimsy, ill-timed and poorly delivered. What we're talking about is when a candidate gives an answer or response that creates an "aha" moment in voters' minds. Ronald Reagan did that with his now-infamous question, "Are you better off now than you were four years ago?" But it wasn't the question that defined the moment; it was how he answered -– his words, his tone, his emotion, and his brutal directness that helped shake a fairly close race into an election blowout. It was a moment that not only grabbed voters' attention, it helped crystallize what a lot of voters already believed about President Carter –- and it was devastating.

In some cases, it can be a negative moment, such as when a candidate makes a major gaffe, or fails to show any compassion or emotion when asked about a terrible crisis or a horrific event (example A, Gov. Dukakis in 1988). These negative moments can define a debate as much as positive ones. These are the landmines all candidates pray they don't step on.

For Gov. Romney to have a real chance for a dramatic election turnaround, he needs one of these defining moments, and it needs to be a positive one. As for President Obama, he needs to do everything possible to avoid a negative moment that would in any way turn those soft leaners or undecided voters against him. So be sure to watch for this above all else.

3. The Beginning and the End

Listen to what the candidate says in his first and last answers. Those few minutes at the top and the end matter -– a lot!

Our advice to candidates is to use their first response to frame the entire debate. Whatever you get asked, use that first question -- when your opponent is nervous, everyone is watching, and the media is thinking about what the story line should be -- to define this debate and rock your opponent.

The smart candidate will use that first answer to box in his opponent and put him on the defensive. He will say something that will not only exploit his opponent's weaknesses, but minimize his own. He needs do it forcefully, but nicely. By the way, there is nothing more damaging to your opponent than getting punched in the gut in the first five minutes. A lesson to keep in mind: If you can undermine your opponent at the very top of a debate, it will shake him from beginning to end.

As for the last answer, smart candidates use this to make the final sell. A great closing statement becomes the exclamation mark to a debate performance. It needs to be a straight-to-camera, connect-with-the-voter sermon. It needs to reflect the voter's reality, not the candidate's. It needs to convey emotion and strength. Above all, it needs to be the moment where the candidate puts down the hammer on what the fundamental choice of this election is or should be. If done well, it can be powerful and memorable.

So be sure to watch and listen carefully to what President Obama and Gov. Romney say in the opening few minutes of the debate. Will they just answer the question, or will they seize the moment to define this debate from start?

4. Romney vs. Obama

So who is the better debater? People will differ, but Gov. Romney is a very good debater and a better one than President Obama. Romney's flaw -– and it's a big one -- is that he has a real tendency to blow himself up with terrible gaffes. President Obama is an average debater who tends to filibuster answers, meanders, but never makes a real gaffe. He's cool and safe. Both of these candidates can also get very defensive when pushed – not a great quality to highlight in a debate, by the way.

To that end, expect both candidates to come out aggressive. Gov. Romney will try and attack President Obama for not taking enough responsibility and making too many excuses about his record. He will try and make Obama own his record and his words. For Obama, it will be about hammering Romney's view on the 47% of Americans he described as victims and then painting him as a politician without a core. He will try and force Romney to contradict himself and be defensive.

5. Winning Voters' Hearts

One of the hardest things to do in politics is to communicate emotion and empathy through a TV camera. It's even harder in a debate.

Some candidates are naturals, like Bill Clinton, and some are not (ahem, Al Gore). But a candidate needs to win hearts, not just minds. A winning debater needs to convey that emotion at the right time and in the right way. It needs to be genuine and sincere. Some try and fake it, but voters know when it's real.

This may be Gov. Romney's biggest hurdle. President Obama is likeable and people see him as someone who understands their problems. He is crushing Romney on these intangible qualities that matter more than one's policy specifics in today's 24/7 media climate.

Unfortunately for Romney, his words and his campaign have painted a brutal picture of someone cold and indifferent to the real suffering of others. Romney will have ninety minutes to disabuse people of that image and paint a new empathetic one. On this front, President Obama has the clear advantage, but he will have to avoid at all costs saying anything that would make people question his likeability.

So watch and ask yourself this question at the end of the debate -- do I truly like Romney more now than I did before?

Chris Kofinis is a Democratic strategist. Frank Luntz is a Republican pollster and strategist. AOL has an elections content partnership with Chris Kofinis and Luntz Global.



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143 Comments

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no1masons

The man who could get anyone to eat a **** sandwich OBAMA looks as if hes eating one himself !!

October 03 2012 at 10:04 PM Report abuse +1 rate up rate down Reply
BEAUTIFUL GENIE

Wow! Romney will say whatever he thinks you want to hear. It is quite evident that it's his way or the highway. ALso, the moderator seemed to favor Romney in that he would remind the President that his 2 minutes were up but did not remind Romney that he was way over 2 minutes. Can't wait for the next two debates to hear Rpmney tell me what he thinks I want to hear. Anyone who has a pre-existing condition - look out ---. Read between Romney's lines.

October 03 2012 at 10:03 PM Report abuse -2 rate up rate down Reply
no1masons

OBAMA is getting SPANKED!!!

October 03 2012 at 9:56 PM Report abuse +2 rate up rate down Reply
BigJim

Where is the link?????

October 03 2012 at 9:28 PM Report abuse rate up rate down Reply
mcwhomper

it says your voice but they won't let us ask the questions like how does obama justify spending 1.4 billion dollars on his presidency when the royal family only used 58 million of the tax payers money on themselves

October 03 2012 at 9:03 PM Report abuse +1 rate up rate down Reply
rptbm

Good Luck to both candidates tonight. Take a "good page" from Clinton: Have goals laid out for the country as a whole and be able to explain how you are going to reach those goals well. Of course, if both men are truthful and actually believe in their positions, then speaking and answering questions comes easy. I do mean "if they are truthful." Obama seems like a cool customer. Sometimes he hard to read. So you really have to listen to what he is saying. Romney is the rope a dope artist. He leans back until the right time to strike. Where is he going to strike Obama? Romney has suffered from that 47% comment and his practices as a businessman and Gov. of Mass. Truth said or not. Obama has suffered from some unrealized goals for the economy. Summarize your positions gentlemen!!

October 03 2012 at 9:01 PM Report abuse rate up rate down Reply
LolaMarie

The main thing diempostdiem is to choose who yu think is right to be president. And no I don't think Obama's wedding anniversay will take center stage. Obama will be asked questions too. You must be crazy to think this debate is airng on "Enertainment Live".

October 03 2012 at 8:56 PM Report abuse +1 rate up rate down Reply
dick hazel

Lets take one step at a time!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Obama is NO more an African American than Derick Jeter. They both were delivered from a WHITE vagina. I would give the main stream media CUDOS if they called them both Mullatos because thats what they are. My country was founded on White European principles that have been userped
by liberal media that is trying to bring our country to a Socialist State. I am sick and tired of local news being delivered by light colored , unintelligent half blacks that are more interested in Jayzee and Takeesha than the success of our principles . Obama was born in Hawaii in 1963 in a hospital that wasnt established until 1971. He was born as an African American but that term wasnt used until the mid 70s. It should have stated he was a Negro, because "Blacks" wasnt used till the late 60s. ENOUGH is ENOUGH trying to take the history of my legitimate ancestors and give to the bastion of malcontents has got to END!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

October 03 2012 at 8:53 PM Report abuse rate up rate down Reply
1 reply to dick hazel's comment
Steve

Archie Bunker is back folks, Run for the hills

October 03 2012 at 8:59 PM Report abuse rate up rate down Reply
sophie.mannaerts

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=80n0ipz68sM&feature=plcp

October 03 2012 at 8:39 PM Report abuse rate up rate down Reply
djeanniemeyer920

I really wish someone would ask both of these so called "leaders" how they feel about the current federal minimum wage. Does anyone wonder why 47 percent hardly pay taxes?

October 03 2012 at 8:37 PM Report abuse -1 rate up rate down Reply