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Adobe Can't Photoshop Away Its Own Fading Prospects

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Adobe PhotoshopLet's see Adobe Systems (ADBE) try to Photoshop its way out of this one.

Shares of the leading desktop publishing software company opened sharply lower on Wednesday morning after posting uninspiring quarterly results and disappointing guidance.

"Adobe Reports Strong Second Quarter Financial Results" may have been the headline of the company's earnings release, but Mr. Market didn't see it that way at all.

Adobe is Everywhere -- So Why Isn't It Booming?

Adobe is the undisputed champ when it comes to arming publishers with the tools to stand out in cyberspace. Fire up YouTube or play a social game online and it's probably Adobe's Flash in action. If you open a PDF file it was probably authored on Adobe Acrobat -- and you're probably reading it using Adobe Reader.

If you've ever wanted to see what your head would look like on a goat, Adobe Photoshop is there for that, too. There are also many other high-end software programs that publishers use to both design websites and push out publications.

This would normally seem like a booming place to be these days, but Adobe's not seeing it that way. The software company is now only targeting revenue growth of 6% to 7% this fiscal year.

Adobe points to weakness in Europe as a reason for lowering the high end of its top-line outlook, and the troubled region has been a popular scapegoat -- with a human head, no doubt -- lately.

Get Off My Cloud

Adobe is also in the process of transitioning many of its traditional customers to the subscription-based Creative Cloud platform.

Instead of meaty up-front payments for Adobe's programs, its cloud-based patrons will be shelling out subscription fees in installments. The move may result in a more predictable stream of revenue, but it may also make it easier to switch to cheaper alternatives.

The market is generally mesmerized by the concept of cloud computing. The ability to make applications truly portable by storing them on a Web-accessed server has helped transform enterprise software darling salesforce.com (CRM) and Linux solutions provider Red Hat (RHT) into multibillion-dollar companies.

However, the compelling reason for companies to go with Salesforce or Red Hat instead of old-school PC-stored solutions is that they usually save companies money. Adobe is the premium brand in desktop publishing already. It is more likely to be disrupted than to be a disruptor itself.


Picture a World Without Adobe

Adobe will continue to matter for power users, but its relevance with the masses will fade. We're already seeing signs of disruption.

When Apple (AAPL) decided not to support Adobe's Flash in the iOS platform that fuels iPhones, iPads, and iPod touch devices, it seemed to be a deal-breaker. Apple created workarounds for YouTube videos, but how could Apple succeed with an incomplete computing experience?

Well, after selling hundreds of millions of iOS gadgets -- and the gradual adoption of HTML5 as an alternative to Flash -- it seems the consumers have spoken. Adobe's products will continue to be popular with desktop publishing pros, but the company's grip on mainstream users will probably fade over time.

Why did Facebook (FB) fork over $1 billion for Instagram earlier this year? The appeal of the free photo-sharing service was difficult to ignore, but it's also the ability to touch up snapshots -- something that casual users would often lean on Photoshop to make happen in the past -- that drew users to Instagram.

Who needs Adobe Premiere Elements to edit videos when even YouTube is offering free cloud-based tools?

Once again, Adobe finds itself cursing Apple. It was Apple, after all, that created the App Store ecosystem, which leveled the playing field for developers. Instead of having to worry about bankrolling a project and costly physical distribution, the next Instagram is only an inspired coder away. Traditional makers of productivity software have a right to be worried.

The company can always fire up Photoshop to make things look better, but reality is not as kind.

Motley Fool contributor Rick Munarriz does not own shares in any of the stocks in this article. The Motley Fool owns shares of Facebook, salesforce.com, and Apple. Motley Fool newsletter services have recommended buying shares of salesforce.com, Adobe Systems, and Apple.

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Chris Dickman

How silly, Photoshop has always been used by graphics pros, not casual users. Adobe's subscription model actually makes a lot of sense. Instead of jumping on Adobe a month after the launch, why not give them enough time to execute?

>the ability to touch up snapshots -- something that casual users would often lean on Photoshop to make happen in the past <

June 22 2012 at 2:53 AM Report abuse rate up rate down Reply
David Bennett

Maybe Adobe should relax it's licensing policies and LET US VIRTUALIZE THE DAMN THING!!!!!!!

June 21 2012 at 11:43 AM Report abuse rate up rate down Reply
nxston08

I love Adobe products but the ones that cost money have gotten so expensive. The prices are way out of reach for all but the professionals.

June 21 2012 at 12:52 AM Report abuse rate up rate down Reply
dmellguy

Adobe will always be the choice of the professionals, as long as they hold that ground.

June 20 2012 at 10:38 PM Report abuse rate up rate down Reply
jdykbpl45

Neither can Obama. He is hiding his guilt behind "executive privelage"

June 20 2012 at 4:34 PM Report abuse +1 rate up rate down Reply