Is Pandora the Perfect Stock?
Mar 6th 2012 9:49AM
Updated Mar 6th 2012 9:52AM
Every investor would love to stumble upon the perfect stock. But will you ever really find a stock that provides everything you could possibly want?
One thing's for sure: You'll never discover truly great investments unless you actively look for them. Let's discuss the ideal qualities of a perfect stock, then decide if Pandora (NYS: P) fits the bill.
The quest for perfection
Stocks that look great based on one factor may prove horrible elsewhere, making due diligence a crucial part of your investing research. The best stocks excel in many different areas, including these important factors:
- Growth. Expanding businesses show healthy revenue growth. While past growth is no guarantee that revenue will keep rising, it's certainly a better sign than a stagnant top line.
- Margins. Higher sales mean nothing if a company can't produce profits from them. Strong margins ensure that company can turn revenue into profit.
- Balance sheet. At debt-laden companies, banks and bondholders compete with shareholders for management's attention. Companies with strong balance sheets don't have to worry about the distraction of debt.
- Money-making opportunities. Return on equity helps measure how well a company is finding opportunities to turn its resources into profitable business endeavors.
- Valuation. You can't afford to pay too much for even the best companies. By using normalized figures, you can see how a stock's simple earnings multiple fits into a longer-term context.
- Dividends. For tangible proof of profits, a check to shareholders every three months can't be beat. Companies with solid dividends and strong commitments to increasing payouts treat shareholders well.
With those factors in mind, let's take a closer look at Pandora.
What We Want to See
Pass or Fail?
|Growth||5-Year Annual Revenue Growth > 15%||112.3%*||Pass|
|1-Year Revenue Growth > 12%||111.2%||Pass|
|Margins||Gross Margin > 35%||40.1%||Pass|
|Net Margin > 15%||(3.9%)||Fail|
|Balance Sheet||Debt to Equity < 50%||0%||Pass|
|Current Ratio > 1.3||2.57||Pass|
|Opportunities||Return on Equity > 15%||(12.5%)||Fail|
|Valuation||Normalized P/E < 20||NM||NM|
|Dividends||Current Yield > 2%||0%||Fail|
|5-Year Dividend Growth > 10%||0%||Fail|
|Total Score||5 out of 9|
Source: S&P Capital IQ. NM = not meaningful due to negative earnings. Total score = number of passes. * Four-year growth rate.
With five points, Pandora comes in with a pretty strong signal. The Internet music company is newly public, but even though it hasn't historically turned a profit, it has many looking to a changing future for the music industry overall.
Pandora came public in mid-2011 to a great divide of opinion. Some pointed to the huge revenue growth that the company has enjoyed in recent years. Yet critics note that Pandora's costs to provide content increase as volume increases, meaning that the company doesn't get huge economies of scale to go with its growth. That puts it at a competitive disadvantage to Sirius XM Radio (NAS: SIRI) , which paid only about 15% of its gross revenue in royalties last year.
Still, Pandora is still growing quickly. Ford (NYS: F) was among the first to give car owners access to Pandora in vehicles, and General Motors (NYS: GM) and most other major car brands have followed suit. That puts more pressure on Sirius to hold onto what has traditionally been one of its strongest segments.
The real question for Pandora is what competitors do next. With everyone from Internet-based peers Spotify and iHeartRadio to CBS (NYS: CBS) and its last.fm going up against it, Pandora will be hard-pressed to maintain whatever moat it may enjoy.
For Pandora to get closer to perfection, it needs to establish its dominance in the industry and start making content deals that let it be more profitable. Otherwise, it will likely fall prey to the high costs that have killed many other companies in the past.
No stock is a sure thing, but some stocks are a lot closer to perfect than others. By looking for the perfect stock, you'll go a long way toward improving your investing prowess and learning how to separate out the best investments from the rest.
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At the time this article was published Fool contributor Dan Caplinger doesn't own shares of the companies mentioned. The Motley Fool owns shares of Ford. Motley Fool newsletter services have recommended buying shares of Ford and General Motors, as well as creating a synthetic long position in Ford. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Fool has a disclosure policy.
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