Odds Getting Longer For Caesars Entertainment

Caesars Entertainment (NAS: CZR) has released its first earnings report since reentering the public markets, and the company's odds don't appear to be getting any better. Growth in the Las Vegas market hasn't been able to mask weakness in others and the company's debt continues to grow as the company barely makes enough money to pay its bills. Let's dig into what the numbers tell us.

Some growth is better than no growth
While Strip competitors Las Vegas Sands (NYS: LVS) , Wynn Resorts (NAS: WYNN) , and MGM (NYS: MGM) are recording strong revenue and EBITDA growth in Macau, Caesars has been left toiling in the Las Vegas and regional markets. Las Vegas Sands, for one, grew revenue 26.3% in the most-recent quarter, to $2.54 billion. By comparison, Caesars grew revenue at a rate of 2.4% in the fourth quarter and a miniscule 0.2% for the year.

Adjusted EBITDA, the proxy we use to approximate how much cash the company's capital investments are producing, rose a little more than revenue at a 5.9% rate, to $466.0 million, due to some cost-cutting measures Caesars implemented.

Atlantic City, which accounts for 19.1% of revenue, continues to struggle as revenue fell 0.7% in the quarter. For the full year, revenue fell 3.2% and I don't have a lot of confidence that a rebound in Atlantic City is imminent.

The Louisiana/Mississippi region was the worst performer, with quarterly revenue falling 9.0% and full-year revenue falling 7.5%.

The $20 billion problem
Management has been on an "amend and extend" campaign to push the company's debt obligations to later dates, and as the company successfully pushes maturities out further, it reduces short-term risks that could come from maturing debt. But it doesn't eliminate the debt altogether.

What's alarming at Caesars is the size of the debt and how management has allowed it to grow. At the end of 2011, long-term debt stood at $19.8 billion, a 5.2% increase from a year ago, and that doesn't include the $1.25 billion the company priced a few weeks ago.

In 2011, Caesars had $2.12 billion in interest expenses and made just $1.94 billion in EBITDA to pay for it. With these kind of numbers, it's easy to see why debt is growing faster than EBITDA. If that doesn't change, Caesars will start circling the drain and eventually investors will be left empty-handed.

To make matters worse, management is considering spending even more money to expand into Massachusetts instead of using it to reducing debt.

Trying to turn the ship around
Caesars is known for its giant Las Vegas resorts, but the company actually generates most of its revenue outside of Las Vegas. That's not a good sign, because regional operators like Boyd Gaming (NYS: BYD) and Penn National have been reporting mediocre earnings, and with competition increasing, the future doesn't look bright. If gaming expands in Massachusetts and Florida, that would be even more competition for Caesars' existing properties to contend with.

Like MGM, Caesars is hoping that online poker will be a driver of future growth, and that could actually push the company's EBITDA above interest costs if it comes to pass. For now, though, online gaming isn't legal, and in an election year I'm not making any bets that it will be embraced on a federal level.

Strike Three -- you're out
Caesars really has three things working against it when compared to other gaming companies:

  1. The $19.8 billion debt load is like an anchor that will slowly bring the company down.
  2. The company has no exposure to gaming in Asia -- where Las Vegas Sands, MGM Resorts, and Wynn Resorts are all investing most of their time and capital.
  3. The regional gaming market is even weaker than that in Las Vegas and will continue to be a drag on operations.

I'm not suggesting that Caesars is going bankrupt any time soon. Companies go bankrupt because they run out of cash, not because the rack up too much debt or losses. With debt maturities pushed out to at least 2015, the company has time to make improvements. I'm just not betting that Caesars is in position to make the improvements I think are necessary.

When I compare it to Las Vegas Sands, Wynn, or Melco Crown, I just can't see how Caesars is a good stock investment right now. In mid-February I calculated Wynn's EV/EBITDA ratio to be 9.9 and Las Vegas Sands' to be 12.6 before accounting for Sands Cotai Central. Caesars' debt alone is 10.2 times EBITDA, and with slower growth and less-attractive future markets than its competitors. That's not a bet I'm willing to make and I'll keep my underperform CAPScall on My CAPS page.

Interested in reading more about Caesars Entertainment? Click here to add it to MyWatchlist, and it will find all of our Foolish analysis on this stock.

At the time this article was published Fool contributor Travis Hoium does not have a position in any company mentioned. You can follow Travis on Twitter at @FlushDrawFool, check out his personal stock holdings or follow his CAPS picks at TMFFlushDraw.Try any of our Foolish newsletter services free for 30 days. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

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