Robert Shiller on Why Home Prices Could Fall for Several Decades
Dec 23rd 2011 2:02PM
Updated Dec 23rd 2011 2:06PM
No one knows what will happen, but it's not hard to argue that the housing market is nearing a bottom. Home construction is as unsustainably low today as it was unsustainably high during the bubble. The more builders like KB Homes (NYS: KBH) and Lennar (NYS: LEN) are beaten into submission today, the bigger the housing rebound will eventually become.
That's the good news. But here's a question few are asking: After the housing market does bottom, what you should expect from it going forward?
I asked Yale economist Robert Shiller -- of S&P/Case-Shiller housing index fame -- that question in an exclusive interview earlier this month. His answer might shock you: Not only do home prices, on average, not produce real returns over time, but history shows they could actually decline over the long haul. Have a look:
What do you think? Share your thoughts in the comment section below.
At the time this article was published Fool contributor Morgan Housel doesn't own shares in any of the companies mentioned in this article. Follow him on Twitter @TMFHousel. Try any of our Foolish newsletter services free for 30 days. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
Copyright © 1995 - 2011 The Motley Fool, LLC. All rights reserved. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.