By David Sterman, StreetAuthority

Friday's employment report has created an even hazier backdrop for stocks. Recent economic data showed an economy starting to cool, but with 244,000 jobs created in April -- the best showing in 11 months -- this expansion still may have legs after all. The key distinction: the economy's areas of support are not what you would have expected a few months ago.

In recent weeks and months, investors have been trying to assess stocks in the context of a sharp spike in commodities -- from oil to silver to wheat. Only recently, we've seen how the massive flooding in the Midwest is leading to forecasts of sharply falling farm output and eventually, higher food prices. Consumers didn't need to hear that while gasoline prices were eating a hole in their pocketbooks.

Despite that, stocks were able to rally through much of April, thanks to a declining dollar that was boosting prospects for U.S. blue chips. In effect, the domestic economic picture looked troubling, while the rest of the world promised to provide at least a decent tailwind.

That scenario now looks backward, as former global growth pillars are starting to wobble. Efforts to slow the Chinese economy may be taking effect, as a range of data points in that all-important economy imply that growth in 2011 may move down to the mid single-digits from a seemingly never-ending run of nearly double-digit GDP growth. Brazil is trying to curb inflation, efforts of which have not always yielded soft landings. And in just a few trading sessions, high-flying commodities such as silver and oil have sharply pulled back while the dollar has begun to rebound. Many are suddenly shifting their sights back to the United States as an engine of growth. Friday's jobs report simply underscores that notion.

GM's (GM) first-quarter results help tell the story. The automaker earned $908 million from its foreign operations a year ago. That figure dropped to $480 million in the recent first quarter. The company's chief financial officer, Daniel Ammann, told investors that GM's growth rate in China "is at 10% to 15%, down from the 40% to 50% we've been seeing." Profits also fell sharply in South America from a year ago and Europe remains unprofitable. Here in the United States, GM is doing quite well: Earnings (before interest and taxes) at the North American division were about $1.3 billion, $100 million higher than a year ago. Merrill Lynch thinks North American earnings before interest and taxes will average around $2 billion for each of the next three quarters.

What It Means

For investors, the question is whether today's jobs report (and the subsequent rally after four straight down sessions) means it's time to keep fully-exposed to the market. The answer is a qualified yes (I never like to be fully exposed, as it's nice to have cash set aside for major pullbacks that create value). Yet even as it pays to stay invested, the investing themes are now changing.

These changes include the following:

1. Airline stocks could really move into favor if oil keeps pulling back and U.S. job creation remains respectable. Oil has quickly moved from $114 last week to just under $100 late this week. It's no coincidence that the Amex Airline Index (XAL) has surged 10% since April 19. [My colleague Ryan Fuhrmann profiled airlines a month ago.]

2. In a similar vein, the automakers such as GM and Ford (F) have been penalized for the fear that $4 gasoline will hurt truck sales. If gasoline falls back to $3.50 in coming weeks, then these stocks could get a relief rally. The same logic applies to auto-parts makers. American Axle (AXL), for example, trades for just six times projected 2012 profits after a recent slide. Shares of RV maker Winnebago (WGO) took a big hit from rising oil prices. Might the converse also be true?

3. You can't ignore retail. Consumer spending remains subpar, but if the private sector can create a million more jobs between now and year's end, then spending is bound to get a boost. Big retailers don't appear especially cheap, so I'm focused on the names that have had poor execution up until now such as Best Buy (BBY), and Aeropostale (ARO), along with small caps Casual Male (CMRG) and CitiTrends (CTRN).

On the downside of the ledger:

4. Commodity plays may have further to fall until they are bargains -- especially if concerns build that the Chinese economy is slowing. For example, I suggested in mid-April that shares of silver miner Couer D'Alene Mines Corp. (CDE) were due for a pullback. Shares have dropped 20% since then and will soon enough represent a bargain. But we're not there yet.

5. You also need to avoid the temptation to try to spot bargains in Japan. The country's blue chip exporters are dealing with the effects of the continued plant shutdowns as well as a super-strong yen that is making companies' exports less competitive. I hate to be alarmist, but Japan may be headed for a deep financial crisis if its economy doesn't generate the growth required to tackle its massive government debt.

Any such crisis in Japan, which holds a good chunk of the United States' debt, could create indigestion for U.S. stocks.

6. A dimming outlook for Europe and Asia could also create headwinds for high-tech companies, many of which derive a substantial amount of profits from foreign markets. As this chart shows, the iShares DJ Technology Index (IYW) has benefited from expectations that global economic growth will take off in the periods ahead.



It's not time to be bearish on tech stocks, but many of the biggest tech firms such as Oracle (ORCL) will be hard-pressed to generate double-digit profit growth in coming years -- unless they pull off major acquisitions or buy back a lot of stock. You want to see this sector newly-cheapened before jumping in again.

Action to Take: A little-noted item in the jobs report bears watching. The headline figure showed that 244,000 jobs were created, which is even more impressive when you consider that government payrolls continue to shrink. Job creation in private sector was really robust: 268,000 private sector jobs were created in April -- the best monthly showing in more than five years. That figure may cool in coming months, but as long as private-sector job creation stays above the 200,000 monthly mark, then the economic upturn will become self-reinforcing. Dropping food and gas prices could help really brighten the outlook for the U.S. consumer in coming quarters. And if you keep the six points I mentioned above in mind, you should be well-positioned to avoid pitfalls and profit accordingly.

Disclosure: Neither David Sterman nor StreetAuthority, LLC hold positions in any securities mentioned in this article.

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Dereck

Major Fraud Alert


The entire Federal Banking System under FirstGov has been "Consumed" and "Levied" by way of a Maryland State Circuit/District Court Ruled “Appropriation and Garnishment” of all Future Earnings prior to and after 2004 against Bank Of America by way of the F.D.I.C. Regulations Prohibiting failing Banks from Merging with other failing Banks between the Dates of 08/04/08 and 10/09/09.

Bank of America violated the 21st Century Act: Final Amendments to Regulation CC Section: http://www.federalreserve.gov/boarddocs/press/bcreg/2004/20040726/attachment.pdf

seeking reimbursement of Credit, Loan, and Finance Balances as a "Bank Entity" and not a "Nonbank Consumer" as specified on Pages 85 and 86.

The person they sued through a LLC. Debt Collection Company and Law Firm was the "World Fortune Owner" who "Counterclaimed" and won.

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Businesses owned by the States (Public Corporations) are being sold Stock Shares by Corporations also under the Federal Banking System in this Worldwide "Ponzi Scheme". The World Fortune Company Merrick Inc. Sweden is dissolving Millions and Billions of Dollars from "All Levels of Government"in the U.S. of Financing based upon Years of "negligent inaction" involving this case.

The Federal Government has already been forced to discontinue supplying the Financing States use to pay their debts, Persons in Government Offices may want to begin to take their jobs more seriously, these are different times from 10 Years ago and you will not be accepted civil servants here just because you say you are here to do the right thing.

May 28 2011 at 11:51 PM Report abuse rate up rate down Reply
Not Again

I just got a $829.99 iPad2 for $98.37 and my girlfriend snagged an awesome $1299 MacBook Air for only $137.93, its being delivered tomorrow. I would be a fool to keep paying high retail prices at places like Walmart or BestBuy, when I even sold a 37" HDTV to my boss for $600 that I only paid $78.24 for. I use two sites, both are good, SnagBids.com
and BidsGo.com

May 17 2011 at 10:04 AM Report abuse rate up rate down Reply
cburngirl2

If you want a less restrictive site for talking politics, go to the Politics section of Burnandrotinhell.com. You can post, comment, and private message. I love it. It's nice to use a site where they don't censor words other than profanity.

May 11 2011 at 9:33 AM Report abuse rate up rate down Reply
tj1108

What the #@%$ is predatory lending. Is that where you lend to people who have no way of paying it back. They take the loan knowing they cant make the payments. Who's the predator.

May 09 2011 at 1:08 PM Report abuse +3 rate up rate down Reply
inasctg56

CPHAED: You're only a victim when you continue to vote republican. They are trying very hard to go back to the same policies that drove our economy into the ground. I.E. Bringing back the 5% tax rate for overseas cooporate profits and repealing the new banking legislation that would go right back to predatory lending and less oversite for banks, wallstreet, and mortgage companies.

What is working is the dems 100% write offs on improvements made in the this country that has demand for machinery and equipment way up and is driving wall street, as well as better trade agreeements negotiated for american workrers instead of for corporations to make record profits overseas. Shoot yourself in the foot - I've had more than enough from the republicans trickle down failed policies.

May 09 2011 at 12:37 PM Report abuse -4 rate up rate down Reply
inasctg56

The News Hour reported there were 277,000 jobs added last month minus the job cuts at the state level that brought the figure down to 244,000. Many are states that have republican governors who cut jobs just to pass along more cuts to corporations; for example - Florida, Michigan, Wisconsin, Ohio, Indiana, Pennsylvania, and more. It sure does seem that between the oil companies and republican state governors they are trying to interfere with the economic recovery just to win in 2012.

May 09 2011 at 12:31 PM Report abuse rate up rate down Reply
1 reply to inasctg56's comment
kitharris1

or they could be trying to bring bloated budgets under control like you and i do with our personal finances. just saying! it takes more political courage to cut jobs than to add them.

May 09 2011 at 1:06 PM Report abuse rate up rate down Reply
shawn2254

COnfederate money currently has more value than the American dollar.

May 09 2011 at 11:38 AM Report abuse -1 rate up rate down Reply
1 reply to shawn2254's comment
inasctg56

Try watching the Nightly Business Report - the value of the dollar is going up and it was the same as it was the summer of 08 under Bush.

May 09 2011 at 12:32 PM Report abuse rate up rate down Reply
zulaufs

Come on now - are you serious - 244,000 job's - well if you were reading or paying attention - then you would have seen that UMEMPLOYMENT just clicked up a notch and that number means nothing..... but WALL STREET missed that one, on purpose. The market goes up on "BS" and down on nothing... I am so sick of these articles bo bull **** that some agency should go back and ARREST the bastards on Wall Street for what they have done to this country - but NO we bail them out - and we STILL try to make ends meet - SHAME ON THE "SEC" and GOV"T agencys that should over see these issues... " IS anyone listening " ???????

May 09 2011 at 11:05 AM Report abuse -2 rate up rate down Reply
1 reply to zulaufs's comment
tj1108

And home prices are still FALLING.

May 09 2011 at 1:09 PM Report abuse rate up rate down Reply
scottee

here are some more things:
the stock prices is not based on the company's value.
the government is manipulating stock prices, gold prices and interest rates to make things look and go the way they want.
no one in Washington is being held fiscally accountable.
why is The Fed allowed to print and dilute our dollar?

May 09 2011 at 7:48 AM Report abuse +2 rate up rate down Reply
Samir semaan

After the dust settle this administration will do the needed job necessary to boost the economy after the consumers came back to the market and the oil and silver fell to a record low that boost the finances of this country and put the united states dollars and the economy back in charge because Urope and China are slowing down and the american economy is improving. To use this opportunity the president must let the Federal bureau of investigation start the office of anticorruption to reduce the deficit and later on reduce the size of the military to reduce the deficit.

May 09 2011 at 12:02 AM Report abuse -2 rate up rate down Reply