One thing you could be sure of in pre-Great Recession America was that U.S. consumer debt would rise pretty consistently. The chart below from a Federal Reserve Bank of New York report titled Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit depicts the trend: In the 10-year period from 1999 to 2008, debt dipped significantly only once, in mid-2001.

Considering that 2001 was a recessionary year marked by 9/11, that's all the more remarkable.

Then came the recent downturn. The expansion of debt peaked in mid-2008 and then began a steady decline as the recession took hold. Though the slump officially ended in mid-2009, consumer debt continued falling through 2010.



As reported on DailyFinance earlier this month, consumer credit use staged a modest recovery in December 2010: Revolving debt (credit cards) increased from $807.2 billion in November to $826.6 billion in December, and nonrevolving debt (auto loans, etc.) rose from $1.608 trillion in November to $1.611 trillion in December.

This expansion aligns with the 0.6% improvement in retail sales logged in December and the 6.7% rise in consumer sales for 2010. But does this increase mark a new trend of rising consumer debt, or was it more akin to bouncing along the bottom?

To get some longer-term perspective on this question, let's look at some charts from the St. Louis Federal Reserve and review both the Federal Reserve's Flow of Funds report and the New York Fed's recent report on consumer credit.

An Economywide Expansion of Debt


As we can see in the chart below, consumer debt rose steadily during the inflationary 1970s, flattened briefly in the deep recession of 1982-83, and then began a steep 25-year rise. Consumer debt rose from $2 trillion in 1984 to $14 trillion in 2008 -- an extraordinary expansion, given that adjusted for inflation, that $2 trillion from 1984 would equal $4.23 trillion in today's dollars.



That is, even discounting for the effects of inflation, consumer debt more than tripled.

At $14 trillion, the debt is equivalent to the entire GDP of the U.S. That's a big number, but as the next chart demonstrates, it pales in comparison to the total debt, both public and private, racked up by the nation as a whole since the early 1980s.



If total debt owed had tracked inflation since 1984, then it would be around $20 trillion. Instead, it's more than $50 trillion.

What's striking about this long-term consumer credit chart is the modest scale of the recessionary dip in debt: The recent break from relentless expansion of debt doesn't look very significant on this chart.

Clearly, America has been on a debt binge since the mid-1980s. In constant dollars (adjusted for inflation), the nation's GDP rose from $6 trillion 1985 to $13.4 trillion in 2010 -- an increase of 223%.

If debt had risen in proportion to GDP, then the nation's total would be around $22 trillion, not $52 trillion.

Digging Into the Debt Data


You've probably noticed that there are three different numbers for total consumer debt presented in the various Federal Reserve reports and charts: The St. Louis Fed pegs total consumer debt at above $13 trillion, the New York Fed's chart claims it's $11.4 trillion and the definitive Federal Reserve Balance Sheet of Households sets the total at $12.5 trillion: $10.12 trillion in mortgages -- including home equity lines of credit (HELOCs) -- and $2.4 trillion in consumer debt -- credit cards, auto loans, etc.

Despite the variances in debt totals -- discrepancies caused by the inclusion or exclusion of small pools of consumer debt such as "other loans and advances") -- what all sources confirm is that debt hasn't declined very much. Consider mortgages and HELOCs: With several million homes already foreclosed on, and several million more in the pipeline, you'd think mortgage debt might have declined more than a meager 4% just from bank writedowns.

But mortgage debt has dropped from a housing bubble high of $10.53 trillion in 2007 to $10.12 trillion in the fourth quarter of 2010 -- not much, considering the significant decline in home prices in those years.

Consumer debt has barely moved in that time -- from $13.8 trillion in 2007 to $13.43 trillion in 2010. Revolving and nonrevolving consumer debt (credit cards and auto loans) sank from $2.55 trillion in 2007 to $2.4 trillion in 2010, but "other bank loans and advances" leaped from $237 billion to $394 billion -- a hefty $157 billion rise.

Not Rising, Not Falling


According to the Fed's comprehensive accounting, total consumer debt fell by $370 billion from 2007 -- a decline of only 2.7%.

Upon closer examination of the Fed's Credit Market report issued on Feb. 7, several numbers really jump out. Conventional consumer debt (credit cards and auto loans) has been bouncing around since 2009 in a trendless fashion.

Debt fell from $2.55 trillion in 2007 to $2.406 trillion in early 2009, then popped up to $2.437 trillion in the fourth quarter of that year, only to decline again in mid-2010 to $2.411 trillion.

In effect, consumer debt has been moving up and down in a narrow band for the past two years, neither declining nor rising significantly.

Banks Get More Conservative About Credit Cards


Strikingly, the total consumer debt that was securitized and sold to investors has plummeted by over half-a-trillion dollars, from $683 billion in 2007 to $133 billion in late 2010. This suggests that lenders are no longer able to sell off their consumer debt accounts and are instead holding them.

Given that the banks are at risk for future losses, it should come as no surprise that, according the New York Fed report, credit card issuers slashed the number of card accounts from almost 500 million in 2008 to 380 million now -- a reduction of 23% in a few short years.

That's still a lot of cards, and we seem to be churning those accounts rather vigorously: A whopping 211 million credit card accounts were closed in 2010, and 164 million were opened.

Judging by the delinquency rates, lenders and borrowers aren't out of the woods yet: 10.8% of all debt is delinquent, down a bit from a year ago, at about $1.2 trillion. That's nearly seven times the GDP of Ireland and nearly four times the GDP of Greece.

Deep Indebtedness Continues

While the number of delinquent mortgages has declined -- when homes are foreclosed on, they're no longer delinquent -- both credit card and student loan delinquency rates are still rising: about 13% of credit card accounts and 11% of student loans are delinquent.

While there are bright spots in the report -- auto loan and mortgage originations have risen substantially from their lows -- there's no getting away from the historically deep indebtedness of the nation and its consumers, the stubbornly high delinquency rates and the modest declines in total consumer debt.

Increase your money and finance knowledge from home

Introduction to Preferred Shares

Learn the difference between preferred and common shares.

View Course »

Understanding Credit Scores

Credit scores matter -- learn how to improve your score.

View Course »

Add a Comment

*0 / 3000 Character Maximum

382 Comments

Filter by:
lord.willem

A loan is a financial transaction in which one party - the lender - agrees to give another party - the borrower a specific amount of money which must be paid back in full.


http://www.reversemortgagelendersdirect.com/reverse-mortgage-loan/
http://www.reversemortgagelendersdirect.com/reverse-mortgage-rates/
http://www.reversemortgagelendersdirect.com/louisiana-reverse-mortgage/
http://www.reversemortgagelendersdirect.com/new-york-reverse-mortgage/
http://www.reversemortgagelendersdirect.com/reverse-mortgage-calculator/
http://www.reversemortgagelendersdirect.com/reverse-mortgages-how-they-work/
http://www.reversemortgagelendersdirect.com/advantages-and-disadvantages-reverse-mortgage/

July 18 2013 at 2:33 AM Report abuse rate up rate down Reply
sue806

Stop socializing the losses that allow the profits to remain Wall Streets by going to http://unitedinprosperity.org The website is not just for the 30-35 MILLION who will be negative equity homeowners but for any adult who believes capitalism and existing laws should be enforced, making all people responsible for their own actions including Wall Street.

February 26 2011 at 12:10 PM Report abuse rate up rate down Reply
Spence

Hey, we went from a two-income family income of just over $90,000 to a one-income family making $64,000. Now that we have one income we actually received a Federal Tax Refund over $5000 and a State Tax Refund over $1700. We took two trips to Hawaii within 6 months, paid for on those low interest offers from two of our credit cards and when we received our refund we paid off our credit cards! When we both worked we paid more in taxes and never got a refund!

February 23 2011 at 5:52 PM Report abuse rate up rate down Reply
bhawkes328

LET ME GIVE YOU SOME PERPSECTIVE, MR. SMITH... ITS TOO DAMN HIGH, AND THIS ECOMONY IS STILL TANKING AND THE BANK ARE GOING TO GET HURT REAL BAD FROM ALL THIS UNSECURED DEBT..... BET ON IT FOLKS

February 22 2011 at 1:46 PM Report abuse rate up rate down Reply
sfamilyent

So, how does this compare with other countries? Are Americans the only ones in the world that operate this way?

February 22 2011 at 8:17 AM Report abuse rate up rate down Reply
fdfhgdfg

http://www.gieasy.com

Fashion Female attire
Gold autumn, personality Men's clothing + Shoes,
Travel bag that grabs an eye coat + Chao packet
Free transport

http://www.gieasy.com/
╰══════════════

February 21 2011 at 8:44 PM Report abuse rate up rate down Reply
richard

The article was interesting, also informative. Maybe an article on what high consumer debt means to the economy, to job creation, to Americans, would be better. Some say there's no problem. Some say the high debt is what powers the economy. Some say our immense consumer debt is going to cause disaster. (They've been saying that for years and so far it hasn't.) What do your experts think? Is consumer debt a problem? Or not? Or what? If it's not a problem, why write about it? If it is, then say why.

February 21 2011 at 5:23 PM Report abuse +2 rate up rate down Reply
fred

garden: (and I will be serious again) Unfortunately people at the bottom struggling and people at the top with millions and everyone in between will find people with integrity and people who are self-serving thieves. I've been broke as hell, and although not a zillionaire, I don't have to worry about breakfast (I have seen times I did). All along the way I've met some folks I've been proud to aasociate with and some scums (at all levels). Sorry to bore ya; just wanted to let you know I deal with some things with too much humor sometimes. Humor and prayer have helped me survive.......

February 21 2011 at 4:16 PM Report abuse +2 rate up rate down Reply
Dennis

It's frightning how many consumers still rely on debt as a means of day to day living. You'd think that with this terrible recession, the worst since the Great Depression, it would have been a wake up call to the perils of excessive debt. Apparently that's not the case as the above graphs demonstrate. The consumer is either out of work or broke, but still finds money (credit cards) to spend. Corporations make record earnings, CEOs get record pay, and workers go bankrupt. Is this what a recovery is supposed to look like???

February 21 2011 at 3:55 PM Report abuse +4 rate up rate down Reply
1 reply to Dennis's comment
fred

Seriously, you make some excellent points. Not only are individuals making choices NOT good for them, some are following our federal/state/county/city, and yes, business leaders too, making NOT good choices for the betterment of our country. And that hurts my heart.....

February 21 2011 at 4:09 PM Report abuse +2 rate up rate down Reply
licwinko

Hey, I have a business opportunity, looking for a partner, you will be expected to give me every dime you have, work day and night 7 days a week, might take years to get the business running and make a profit and once we do, you will have people just sitting on the couch all day and hate the "rich" (which would be us of course), cause they don't have an idea in their head or the willpower to build a business and they will want you to hand money over to them for not doing anything - is this appeals to you, please leave a message.

February 21 2011 at 3:53 PM Report abuse rate up rate down Reply
5 replies to licwinko's comment