But whether that makes toymaker stocks a buy at these levels -- and at this point in the holiday season -- is a much tougher call. Toy stocks are, after all, seasonal. Christmas comes the same time every year, therefore toy stocks allegedly discount this months in advance.
Shares in Jakks Pacific (JAKK), for example, have jumped 25% in the last three months, helped in no small part by a beat-and-raise third-quarter earnings report on better-than-expected sales. Jakks also approved a $30 million share buyback program. But the rally has the stock trading at fat premiums to its own five-year average on both a forward and trailing earnings basis, according to data from Thomson Reuters, making valuation a concern.
Mattel (MAT), the No. 1 toymaker, has seen its shares rally 24% over the past three months on a host of catalysts. The company is expecting record profits this year, and Wall Street sees accelerating single-digit revenue growth through 2011. Activist investor Carl Icahn shook things up by taking a stake in Mattel. And the company hiked its dividend and pledged to buy back another $500 million in stock.
Like Hasbro, Mattel's valuation isn't particularly compelling, but analysts' expectations certainly are. Take Wall Street's average price target, add in the 3.2% yield on the dividend, and you get an implied upside of nearly 20% in the next 12 months or so.
For the bull and bear cases on Jakks, Hasbro and Mattel, see Face-Off on Stocks above.