President ObamaYou might think Yale economics professor William C. Fair is a bit crazy. After all, he's predicting that President Obama will cruise to reelection in 2012. However, Fair has a good track record of predicting presidential outcomes based on his economic model, which puts numbers on the slogan that "It's the economy, stupid," which Bill Clinton adviser James Carville famously coined.

Fair's model is simple enough. According to the The New York Times, he has two econometric models -- one that predicts the overall state of the economy and one that forecasts the popular vote. Fair predicts that U.S. gross domestic product will grow 3.7% in the first three quarters of 2012 -- compared with the 3.2% forecast from Blue Chip Economic Indicators and 3.4% from the Congressional Budget Office.

Fair's latest calculation from earlier this month predicts that based on his forecast, Obama will get a bigger share of the electoral votes in 2012 than he did in 2008. Specifically, his model predicts that Obama will get 55.9% of the two-party vote share -- over two percentage points more than 2008's 53.7%. Moreover, Fair predicts that the 2012 Democratic share of the two-party House vote will rise from 45.9% in 2010 to 49.9% in 2012.

No Wonder the GOP Hates QE2

Of course, if Fair's GDP growth prediction is way too high, all bets are off. President Obama's reelection would be doomed if the economy stayed at its current 2% growth rate by 2012. Unfortunately, for Obama's political enemies, the Fed's $600 billion quantitative easing (QE2) plan puts in place a key part of the economic stimulus needed to add enough growth above the 3% rate needed to cinch Obama a second term.

The only way for Republicans to stop the economic growth needed to help Obama win a second term is to vote against their dearest issue -- extending the Bush tax cuts. And that doesn't appear to be in the cards. As far as Fair is concerned, QE2 plus an extension of the Bush tax cuts are enough stimulus to add $1 trillion to the deficit while assuring that the economy grows faster than the 3% needed for Obama's reelection to be in the bag.

Hoping Fair will be wrong? His most recent prediction was prescient. In November 2006, way before the 2008 candidates had been chosen or the campaign issues had been clearly formed, Fair used his model to predict the state of the economy in 2008. It correctly forecast a weak economy then and a Democratic landslide in the election.

Increase your money and finance knowledge from home

Socially Responsible Investing

Invest in companies with a conscience.

View Course »

Asset Allocation

Learn the most important step in structuring an investment portfolio.

View Course »

Add a Comment

*0 / 3000 Character Maximum


Filter by:

Obama's re-election is in the bag ok....the dirty laundry bag. The sooner he is gone, the better.

November 24 2010 at 6:57 AM Report abuse +3 rate up rate down Reply

There's no doubt in my mind that Obama will be re-elected - whether it's tough on Michelle & kids or not. The Democrat voting machine didn't get Obama elected to let him ( or us ) off the hook ' that easy '. Within the next 2 years they will have a massive drive to get EVERYONE in the US signed up to vote. Healthcare and Voting Rights are going to come on his watch..... And with that in place Goodbye any 2, 3, 4 or whatever political party system......

November 24 2010 at 1:34 AM Report abuse -2 rate up rate down Reply

If we have such clever models to predict not only our future growth rate but who will be re-elected,why do we need both houses of congress. Thay can be replaced with a low level computer. Now, that will reduce our defecit.

November 23 2010 at 10:41 PM Report abuse rate up rate down Reply

toosmart-After the eight years of the Nixon/Ford "mess" we got Jimmy Carter for 4 years, then the people wanted the Republicans back in the form of Ronald Reagan. A year is a lifetime in politics

November 23 2010 at 9:52 PM Report abuse +1 rate up rate down Reply

If the GOP runs McCain again I predict Obama will win

November 23 2010 at 9:50 PM Report abuse -1 rate up rate down Reply
1 reply to leonardstique1's comment

McCain would have won if he chose the right running mate rather than what was perceived as "cool" at the time. Since Obama ran on cool, McCain figured he could do the same. 2012, lets no choose "cool", lets choose a leader. Hopefully everyone has learned their lesson after this disaster.

November 23 2010 at 9:56 PM Report abuse +1 rate up rate down Reply

A new poll shows Mitt Romney, who isn't even running yet, with a 46 to 44 point lead over, THE ONE. This professor is doing a great amount of wishful thinking...

November 23 2010 at 7:29 PM Report abuse +3 rate up rate down Reply
Robert & Lisa

With commodity prices having surged over 50% in the past year and unemployment at almost 10%, we obviously have a deep recession with inflation just like the Jimmy Carter years. Ronald Reagan's policies pulled us our of the abyss then, who will do it now? Obama and thugs seem hell bent on keeping us in the abyss.

November 23 2010 at 7:11 AM Report abuse +8 rate up rate down Reply

Fair's math does not consider Obama's "Redistribution" ideology. This ideological over reach and lack of due diligence on forecasted results (Stimulus, Healthcare,) has given rise to the Tea Party and midterm election rejections of his "socialism lite" policies. This will not be forgotten in 2012 Nov.

November 23 2010 at 7:08 AM Report abuse +11 rate up rate down Reply
1 reply to billykopf's comment

Yes, all about redistribution - I could outline some of them here and that doesn't include liberals now known as socialists in the socialist party of america (70 of them)...redistributing hard earned wealth off to themselves and their families.....and that includes Socialist members Rangel and Waters.

November 23 2010 at 7:13 AM Report abuse +5 rate up rate down Reply
Penny Jim

Oh my! What a dumb bunch of hicks we are. Or so this article would have you believe. Obama re-elected with a socialist agenda such as he has put together? The paople will not go for him and I do not think any Yale professor knows the real American people. It will not happen!

November 23 2010 at 7:03 AM Report abuse +11 rate up rate down Reply
1 reply to Penny Jim's comment
Robert & Lisa

We hope you are right but doesn't it bother you that there are still over 40% who approve of him and the job he is doing?

November 23 2010 at 7:13 AM Report abuse +3 rate up rate down Reply

After eight years this republican mess, who in their right mind wants them back again?

November 23 2010 at 6:43 AM Report abuse -16 rate up rate down Reply
3 replies to toosmart4u's comment