September's Last Week Will Be the Rally's Biggest Test

Stock market September rallySeptember is usually a lousy time for stocks, but a steady albeit shallow stream of encouraging economic news has equities on a four-week winning streak -- one that's sure to be tested by a slew of data in the days ahead.

The Dow surged nearly 200 points on Friday, leaving it just 3% off its 52-week peak hit last April. The blue-chip index has gained 8.4% this month, while the broader S&P 500 ($INX) is up 9.5%. The more volatile, tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite ($COMPX) has surged 12.6% this month so far.

Whether this rally can last or is merely the latest upswing in a months-long pattern of sideways trading depends on what the economic news tells us about unemployment, says Doreen Mogavero, chief executive, co-founder and head of floor trading at Mogavero, Lee & Co.

"As always, jobs are the primary focus, and I think it's what we all feel is going to be the catalyst for a real, sustainable rally," Mogavero says. With consumer confidence, personal consumption and GDP just three of the items on this week's calendar, stocks have some hurdles ahead them. "It's a pretty packed week of economic data and all of it very relevant to the job market," says Mogavero.

For more on Mogavero's outlook from the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYX), see the video below:

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After the best September in 61 years I think it's time to take some money off the table. Or at least sell some at-the-money covered calls for Oct. MikeS

September 28 2010 at 8:20 PM Report abuse rate up rate down Reply

the market will be back to 9000ish by the election in nov. then, it will likely move 10%. wish i had a clue which way. msg is stay out of the market. it is not for investors. only the fully armed pro's with the full basket of knowledge should be in it.

September 27 2010 at 4:53 PM Report abuse rate up rate down Reply

When you have a group of greedy 20's and 30's somethings collecting billions of "investment" dollars from main street they simply cannot help themselves to lining their pockets. In many cases their brains are not fully develop to understand the diffrence between right and wrong. Don't get me wrong they are very intelligent. they know what they are doing but they simply do not see the end product to their self oriented efforts. With little oversight from anyone, and permitted to do just about what they want as long as they show the firms a huge profit values go out the door. Even if they are found guilt of misleading conduct they get a relatively small fine and move on. The shame of the system.

September 27 2010 at 3:12 PM Report abuse +1 rate up rate down Reply

The near-term outlook is down, but if you are investing in a team that you believe in, I say hold'm if you got'm. We are in a midter-term upswing of considerable strength. As we glance in the rearview mirror, don't become fixated on the past. Life moves on... You're either a part of it, or you're sitting on the sidelines. Note, we all sit on the sidelines, sometimes, but our hope should be that we stand ready to play, at any moment. Stand your ground, and keep your ears open. Glance at the coach, he might be glancing at you, too. Don't foget the GM. The coach calls the plays, but God pays the coach's salary. If you don't feel able to run the play (in good conscience), turn in your helmet. You're not doing anyone a favor, by playing with an injury. Set... ?

September 27 2010 at 1:13 PM Report abuse rate up rate down Reply

Wall Street firms spends several billion dollars each year on TV, radio and print advertising to attract main street investors to "invest". The magic term is "invest". Investing in Wall Street is great deal for these firms. They have other peoples money (OPM)to practically spend as they want. They direct the money provided by the main street investor into stocks and funds that will in most part provide the greatest return for the firms. Certainly not the investor. A good example is that over the past 10 years the main street investor has seen a overall loss in their portfolios while Wall Street has pocketed billions. Therefore the word "invest" should not be permitted as a tool to sell the Wall Street products. The term gamble or phrase " take a risk" should be substituted. CEO at public companies in the US are paid on average 350 times a line worker. This crazy income is provided by Wall streets ability to again attract monies to "invest" from main street. This is why the spread between the wealthy and the average American continues to expand.

September 27 2010 at 11:18 AM Report abuse +1 rate up rate down Reply
1 reply to gritzsl's comment

amen, but clarify everyone else is working spreads, not investing. the smart investors know enough to insulate any loss and widen all profits. if you are not a pro, take the measly % guaranteed by t bills or that whopping 1% on cd's. you won't make much money, but it is unlikely you will get chewed up by the pro's and lose.

September 27 2010 at 4:57 PM Report abuse rate up rate down Reply

I am so over-joyed, the market is up when its supposed to be down. What next?

September 27 2010 at 8:31 AM Report abuse +2 rate up rate down Reply

Owe Babble sez, "Buy gold!"

September 27 2010 at 7:30 AM Report abuse rate up rate down Reply
Robert & Lisa

And if you'd listened to Glenn Beck a year ago, you'd be up about 50% in dollar terms. If you'd taken his advice 2 years ago, you'd be up over 100%. Maybe you should listen?

September 27 2010 at 7:21 AM Report abuse +6 rate up rate down Reply
2 replies to Robert & Lisa's comment


September 27 2010 at 11:31 AM Report abuse +2 rate up rate down Reply

Glenn is academically correct, but he still needs to keep close check on the mood stabilizer. He gets a bit carried away, sometimes. Still, he's someone that the kids need to hear. Life doesn't always turn out the way we want it to... Thank God!

September 27 2010 at 1:21 PM Report abuse rate up rate down Reply
Robert & Lisa

Our educational facilities have taught our kids a bunch of lies. You young'uns could learn from we who actually lived through the Jimmy Carter years and the Republicans led by President Reagan who fixed the mess made by him and the Demoncrats. If you don't learn the true lessons of history, you will repeat them.

September 27 2010 at 7:18 AM Report abuse +6 rate up rate down Reply

I seem to recall discussing in College about what happens when you give money to the rich to enable this so called trickle down economics...We came across the same scenario that we're in now...the question was asked...what happens when you give money to the rich and they put it in their pockets instead of investing in business's and buying machinery. The response to me was just won't happen...guess's happening. All that money they got in the bailouts and when "W" first gave it put in pockets and now you see the consequences.

September 27 2010 at 7:04 AM Report abuse -4 rate up rate down Reply
2 replies to lbjdriver's comment
Robert & Lisa

It is the failed Demoncrat policies that first caused our near collapse in the Jimmy Carter years, with Reagan coming to the rescue. Now, who is going to rescue us from the Obama collapse?

September 27 2010 at 7:14 AM Report abuse +4 rate up rate down Reply

Problem with Ohmama is the tax policy is not geared for growth. No way folks are going to invest $$$ when the Socialist want to tax the same $$$ away from the private sectors. With Jimmy the folks got relief in the mid-term and then Mr. Reagan took control for the next eight years and implemented a firm direction on taxes that allowed for growth. Sorry to0 see that you only received the Liberal /Socialist education from you school. Ever think about helping the Libs out by starting a lawsuit???

September 27 2010 at 11:41 AM Report abuse +2 rate up rate down Reply