Investors' Short-Term Thinking Will Lead to Long-Term Grief Investors are taking steps to make themselves feel better in this uncertain economy, but that near-term relief could be jeopardizing their portfolio and even their retirements.

First, from January through July, investors pulled nearly $30 billion out of stock mutual funds, according to the Investment Company Institute. Some of that money has gone into bonds and bond funds, and some is sitting on the sidelines. Such moves ignore the fundamentals -- like the importance of diversity, the need to outpace inflation, and the benefits of thinking long term.

In addition, a rising number of people have tapped their 401(k)s for hardship reasons. Fidelity Investments recently released a survey showing that the percentage of participants either initiating a loan or a hardship withdrawal increased. Loans initiated over the past 12 months grew to 11% of total active participants from about 9% one year prior. The portion of participants with loans outstanding also increased 2 percentage points in the second quarter to 22%.
And many people who were ill-prepared for an unexpected job loss have turned to credit cards to bridge the income gap. Consequently, debt levels are rising, and the rate of bankruptcy filings this year is higher than it was last year: Filings for August were up 6% compared to July 2009, and filings for 2010 through early September were running about 12% higher than the first eight months of last year, according to the National Bankruptcy Research Center.

The good news is that many Americans are saving again, but they are making some mistakes out of fear that could come back to bite them. "The American middle class and the components of the American dream are at serious risk," says Steve Carr, managing director of Dresner Corporate Services. "This is true for baby boomers and our kids."

There's plenty that's getting twisted.

Stay In It to Win It. Many investors have been spooked by the volatility of the stock market and are taking their money out. However, while the market has been erratic of late, both technical and fundamental factors point to a potential rally, says Brenda Wenning of Wenning Investments.

"Investors who maintain a steady asset allocation with funds in stocks, bonds and cash will benefit if stocks rally, but will not suffer much if prices drop," says Wenning. "With cash on hand, they can also buy more stocks if it appears that a rally is imminent."

Rainy day investors attempt to sit out the storms of the market, hoping to jump back in after the malaise has passed. "These market timers fail to realize that there is no alarm bell that rings at the lows or the highs," says John Sdajdak, senior portfolio manager with MainStreet Advisors.

Thomas Casey, a certified financial planner with Casey, Thomas & Associates, agrees. "They may never achieve the inflation-hedge and historically higher long term returns that equities provide," he adds.

As Joseph Montanaro, a certified financial planner with USAA simplifies it: "Sitting on the capital market sidelines is not going to get you where you need to go -- you must be present to win."

Maximize Returns. With interest rates at historic lows, it doesn't make sense to invest too heavily in bonds, especially long-term bonds, says Wenning. Yet investors have been pouring a great deal of money into them. For the two-year period ending June 30, 2010, bond funds attracted $480.2 billion -- similar to the 1999 and 2000 period for stock funds, which attracted $496.9 billion, points out Wenning. Some are predicting a "bond bubble," driven by too much investor demand, and are comparing it to the dot-com bubble at the beginning of the millennium.

"Investors are putting their money in bonds, not out of enthusiasm, but because they don't know where else to invest it," says Wenning.

Furthermore, while bonds are considered safe, who are they safe for? "Are they safe for the young investor investing for the long term, or are they more safe for the investor getting closer to retirement?" asks Ornella Grosz, a retirement planner with the Teacher's Retirement System of Georgia.

"Bonds do have risk -- inflation risk," Grosz says. "They typically don't keep up with the rate of inflation over the long term." Similarly, certificates of deposit, while "safe," may not pack much of a punch against inflation.

But if buying bonds will help you sleep better, Louis Abel, managing director of First Foundation Advisors recommends non-Treasury bonds, such as municipal, corproate, mortgage-backed, high yield, high yield munis and emerging-market bonds. Even then, Casey reminds investors that there are varying degrees of credit risk. "Have you heard of companies and municipalities defaulting on their debt recently?" Casey asks. "If not, you need to read the financial press and see why the SEC is preparing to sue the state of New Jersey."

Think Long Term. It's a big mistake to try to make long term strategy decisions based on constant short-term information from the media, says Thomas Mingone, founder of Capital Management Group. Take emotion out of the equation.

"Develop an asset allocation strategy based on long term goals and risk tolerance and then make tactical adjustments to 'tweak' the portfolio," Mingone adds.

Seek High Dividend Stocks. Certain areas of the stock market are beginning to look attractive relative to bonds, says Abel. For example, high-quality, large-cap, high-dividend-paying stocks are attractive. "With many stocks offering a 3% dividend yield or higher, that's a much better yield than U.S. Treasurys, and you have upside potential from the growth of earnings and hence stock price over time," he adds.

Furthermore, suggests Richard Leader, chief investment officer of First Houston Capital, some investors are willing to assume risk by buying bonds they don't know the risk of, yet are avoiding quality, dividend-paying stocks that have way less risk than junk bonds -- they're leery just because they are stocks.

Remember, Price Matters. In today's economy, risky assets are a bigger gamble than ever, yet some folks are trying to pump up their returns with junk bonds, distressed assets and the like. "Higher risk does not always lead to higher returns. In fact, right now, the risk of losing money is far greater than it would be under normal circumstances," says Wenning.

Forget the Crowds. Not only are some investors running to assets that are recent top performers, they are often paying top dollar for them.

"Don't follow the crowd. Many are being a sucker for what's popular at the moment, like gold, which is a hypothetical asset," says Leader.

Chasing performance is like driving a car by looking in the rearview mirror, adds Jerry Miccolis, chief investment officer at Brinton Eaton.

Avoid the Temptation to Stand Still. Uncertainty and fear leaves many with a certain sense of paralysis. Investors decide to do nothing. "Failure to plan is like having a float without a motor, you'll go nowhere," says Rose Greene, a certified financial planner with Rose Greene Financial Services. Not making a decision can be just as detrimental as making the wrong decision.

Be Nimble. You don't want to jump in and out of the market, but you do want to periodically examine your portfolio to see how it lines up with your goals and objectives, and then rebalance it accordingly. You might even need to be a bit more tactical in your approach.

"The old buy and hold style of investing no longer works," says Greene. "In this current environment, this strategy will result in returns that go up and go down, but over a 10-year period may go nowhere. It's important to take a tactical approach to investing. Buy and hold may work if you are very young with a long time horizon before retirement."

Most important: Fight fear and emotion with perspective, and remember that what you do today impacts what you'll have tomorrow.

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punnster

What is there to fear: another 9-11 to crash everything? Inflation? Taxes to cripple businesses and industries? Obama Care to do more of the same? Carbon tax to do the same? Economy, real estate, unemployment ----- WHAT, ME WORRY???

November 01 2010 at 10:00 PM Report abuse rate up rate down Reply
punnster

What is there to fear: another 9-11 to crash everything? Inflation? Taxes to cripple businesses and industries? Obama Care to do more of the same? Carbon tax to do the same? Economy, real estate, unemployment ----- WHAT, ME WORRY???

November 01 2010 at 10:00 PM Report abuse rate up rate down Reply
PAULA

You know I do not pretend to known every thing , but the way I see it this was written by the people that have every thing to gain if you should invest in the market and every thing to loss if you do not, I think when people read this type of thing they should ask themselves what do these people have to gain by what they say, are they really looking out for you, have they in the past? I think not

September 20 2010 at 10:30 AM Report abuse +2 rate up rate down Reply
j99benz

This author must have ties the the financial industry. Stocks bonds funds etc. are for the financial institutions and traders. It's not for the average american or for people that don't do it for a living.

September 20 2010 at 9:22 AM Report abuse +2 rate up rate down Reply
alldayconrenco

get the heck out of the stock market,,and do it now,,,the BIGGEST FINANCIAL COLAPSE OF THE USA'S FINANCIALS IN HISTORY IS OBAMA'S DREAM,,AND ITS COMMING IN 2011,,AND 2 YRS OF HARDSHIP AND REAL DEPRESSION ARE SET IN,,IN 2012,,WE START TO FIX IT ALL,,,WHILE IMPRISONING 100'S OF WALL ST SCUMBAGS!!

September 20 2010 at 8:18 AM Report abuse +2 rate up rate down Reply
sensibleshawnhb

Gee. This author is certainly pro-US stock market. My next question would be: Does the writer have any financial interest in advocating people putting their money into US securities? How do we know that this person is communicating from an objective position?

September 20 2010 at 1:28 AM Report abuse +2 rate up rate down Reply
Richard

Yes I did take my money out, but when you see your life saving disappearing at a fast rate and ML saying that everyting was ok and they are spending mucho bucks on a bathroom. I had to do something, I bought a rental house and gained back part of what ML lost. I also invested in some gold coins before the stock market sump and gained almost 50% on my investment. .

September 19 2010 at 11:08 PM Report abuse +2 rate up rate down Reply
ronsjigslures123

The proof is in the pudding.. if you invested 50 to 75 grand in the metal, and bought cold and silver, like kugrans, canada gold, silver coins, 2 1/2 years ago. Your making a profit today and its going up. Bottom line when you put it to pen and paper your making some money if you hold out from selling them you will make more, and that is in a short 2 1/2 years time. There is no gray area here you made some money on your investment, how much is how much you paid for the initial metal. A lot of stocks have stalled and go up and down winning and loosing your money within a week or two unless you have a ton of money and the inside track then you lost money or just waisted your time. Metals are here to stay for a while buy now even buying now can make you some bucks if you use your smarts in buying.

September 19 2010 at 10:45 PM Report abuse +2 rate up rate down Reply
Ray

Look: here are these people pumping the market again. The middle class, epecially the 60-70 year olds are screwed. The market is totally manipulated and only good for day traders. The freakin fed has fixed it so you get no money for your cash or CD. But I would rather have "principal" and "principle" on my side. Wall Street and the market have proven time again to be a bunch of greed crooks. So you go ahead and "buy and hold" but I'll stay out...thank you and your wise Advisors. Advisors make money off the little guy...the little guy takes the screwing. Until America changes for the better: beware! Be forwarned!

September 19 2010 at 10:41 PM Report abuse +3 rate up rate down Reply
ronsjigslures123

The metaals market is the only thing with a return right now, a return that is ok, for the small investor. Silver is a sleeper and is going up little EACH day soon it will be at 35 bucks a oz. and if you bought at 20.18 a oz. you will do good, even if you bought silver coins at 24.00 bucks each they will still give you a return. Gold is getting to high for most, silver is still cheap and a VERY strong runner upward, another one is Pladdium it topped out at over $1,000.00 a oz a few years back, and like i said before to BUY AND SELL it costs you nothing no fees if you buy and sell the physicial stuff. Canada mints make a Maple Leave one oz. siver coin that is the 99.99% fine purest in the world and there still at a ok price, they can be purchased anywhere from any honest dealer, or internet sites, i bought a few hundread of them a couple years ago i have already made a profit off them and waiting for it to go higher then selling, i should be able to double my money.

September 19 2010 at 10:30 PM Report abuse rate up rate down Reply