NABE Economists Say Promote Growth Now, Fix Deficit Later The National Association for Business Economics released its semiannual Economic Policy Survey Sunday, and nearly 60% of respondents said they support the Federal Reserve's current monetary policies. But only 39% of respondents feel that the government's current fiscal stance is appropriate, and 75% of them oppose another stimulus package.

"The majority of the economists surveyed consider monetary policy to be currently appropriate, with greater disagreement over how the Federal Reserve should proceed over the next 12 months," according to NABE President Lynn Reaser, who is also chief economist for Point Loma Nazarene University.

Respondents were nearly evenly split among what the Fed's future direction should be, with 36% of them preferring a "more restrictive" monetary policy, 33% preferring a "more stimulative" policy, and 31% preferring that policies remain "unchanged." Most panelists said deflation is the greater risk to the U.S. economy in the short term, but that inflation is more to be feared in the longer term.

Many of the panelists were also highly skeptic that the Fed will be able to time its policy shift well, believing it will start tightening too late. The survey, which received responses from a panel of 242 members of the NABE, was taken from July 30 through Aug. 10.

Support Employment Growth ... But How?


"Regarding fiscal policy, the economists generally believe the near-term focus should be the promotion of economic growth rather than deficit reduction," Reaser said. "The majority of the respondents also do not believe another stimulus package is necessary but think the various tax cuts should be extended beyond their scheduled expiration at year-end."

Indeed, only 39% survey respondents feel that the current fiscal policy is appropriate, down from 44% in March, with 37% believing it is too stimulative and 24% saying it is too restrictive. A strong majority suggests the government should focus on employment improvements or support.

Two-thirds of the respondents support the extension of the unemployment benefits recently enacted by Congress and three-quarters think the government should do more to support employment growth. However, 41% of them think the best way to support employment is to provide more clarity about future regulations and tax policy. Only 23% suggest meaningful tax incentives for companies that increase hiring.

An Opposing View for Austerity Measures


While the majority of NABE survey respondents prefer promoting economic growth over deficit reduction, not everybody agrees. Billionaire investor Jim Rogers, chairman of Rogers Holdings, said on CNBC that in order for economy to recover, the U.S. needs to stop printing and spending money, and instead adopt austerity measures like the Europeans have.

"I'd rather have the Europeans running the U.S. central bank than the people running the U.S. central bank, [at] least they know how to try to build for the future," Rogers told CNBC. Economies in trouble should be allowed to go under, like bad companies, he suggested. "You have a painful period for awhile, and then you start over."

He does not support either the administration's or the Fed's policies, saying they just "push the problem out to the future."

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fiico2

first cheers to blueyeagle1 and goody3bo. the problem is not repulican or demecrat, it is common sense. For some stupid reason all we hear about in recovery attempts is loans banks loans banks.....yes some companies use loans and lines of credit to keep up payrolls and expand. the government should get them out of the way by creating new bad debt free banks like freddie and fannie just to loan out money to companies with strict guidlines of E.H.P.D.B.R or EMPLOYEES HIRED PER DOLLAR BORROWED RATIO. this would take away the excuses and wasted attention given to the current cash hording banks. once those banks see that particular compitition they will loosen their purse stings and stop cherry picking who they lend to but just be responsible. as far as housing goes weeeell this was coming for a long time. the cost of homes has risen far faster than the average wage, the 2 have become completely detached. if you asked me to buy a home 10 years ago I would have told you it was a stupid idea as the housing bubble was inevitable. here is an exaple. here in Nassau Nounty NY the minimum price tag on a house is 300,000.00 for a house in neighborhood that you feel that you can walk to the store and have a 70% chance of getting home without being shot to death. the median price range is 425,000. you need to make 100,000.00 a year to live comfortabley. housing is now doing what is has to do and self correcting. nothing can be done about that other than getting jobs back. sure the government should help the ones currently in homes but thats about it. yes we should buy american but the only things that seem to be american made that consumers will buy is food. there does not seem to be a single electronic item out there that is completely manufactured in america. take apples iphone for instance, it is manufactured at foxconn in china, and WE the people are scooping them up by the hundreds of thousans every month. AT&T has been making a mint on every single iphone sold. do you see them doing massive hiring....nope they killed over 700 jobs this year alone. blueyeagle1 is right we should tariff the crap out of everyone. the good on tariffs lots of money for the government to help pay down debt. it will cause incentive to manufacture in the US because manufacturers will be able to compete. the bad: products will cost us more but we will get over it. we do not need more debt so the government should stop looking to banks as our saviors. we all know what the problem is. JOBS JOBS JOBS. we are in a state of emergency and something drastic must be done NOW

August 31 2010 at 9:23 AM Report abuse rate up rate down Reply
otterdad48

It is amusing that conservatives have suddenly gotten religion about the deficit. They had no problem with unfunded tax cuts followed by unfunded wars. During the time when they held a both the Legislative and Executive branches of government they heaped scorn on those who brought up deficit spending. They still are good about wars and cutting taxes as being somehow unrelated to deficits. They are saying that the way to fix the economy is by downsizing government and putting millions more Americans out of work and dismantling the oversight programs that protected Americans from rapaceous corporations. The conservativs think freedom is having a choice between buying pepsi or coke but asking the corporatocracy to behave fairly is tyranny. Go figure.

August 31 2010 at 8:19 AM Report abuse +1 rate up rate down Reply
DUDE

These economists are crazy , this is like getting a loan to buy lottery tickets to pay for your other loan. If they would quit wasteing our money on G.S. ,AIG , Fanny ,Freddy ,& the list goes on this country would n't have a problem. These companies have wrote off millions in losses leaving us the taxpayer making up for them while they take home millions.

August 31 2010 at 3:04 AM Report abuse +2 rate up rate down Reply
blueyeagle1

(This is in addition to my post below) We need to BUY AMERICAN PRODUCTS to save our future, cities, schools, states, our very culture! WE ARE THE MOST INNOVATIVE SOCIETY in the history of the world...don't tell me we are going to let this slip away because we weren't smart enough do something about it. WE are not responsible for the failure of other countries ability to provide economic stability for their citizens and we should not give away the jobs we need to have for our own economic stability and growth. And, about those countries who hold our debt because we decided to give our manufacturing JOBS away...just how do you propose we are going pay that debt off...not by selling pizzas and burgers. ARTICLE XIX OF THE GENERAL AGREEMENT ON TARIFFS AND TRADE Emergency Action on Imports of Particular Products 1. (a)If, as a result of unforeseen developments and of the effect of the obligations incurred by a contracting party under this Agreement, including tariff concessions, any product is being imported into the territory of that contracting party in such increased quantities and under such conditions as to cause or threaten serious injury to domestic producers in that territory of like or directly competitive products, the contracting party shall be free, in respect of such product, and to the extent and for such time as may be necessary to prevent or remedy such injury, to suspend the obligation in whole or in part or to withdraw or modify the concession. (b)If any product, which is the subject of a concession with respect to a preference, is being imported into the territory of a contracting party in the circumstances set forth in sub-paragraph (a) of this paragraph, so as to cause or threaten serious injury to domestic producers of like or directly competitive products in the territory of a contracting party which receives or received such preference, the importing contracting party shall be free, if that other contracting party so requests, to suspend the relevant obligation in whole or in part or to withdraw or modify the concession in respect of the product, to the extent and for such time as may be necessary to prevent or remedy such injury. source:http://www.sice.oas.org/dispute/gatt/50furha2.asp From: SICE - Foreign Trade Information System

August 31 2010 at 2:30 AM Report abuse rate up rate down Reply
blueyeagle1

The stock market is NOT really a measure of the economy on MAIN STREET USA> It is more a measure of the multinationals that have sent your jobs to China! Private sector jobs are NOT created by the government. I just saw a report that said the real unemployment rate was around 18% if those who have stopped lookig for work are included in the numbers. 'You cannot get there from here'...That is the phrase I think applies to this situation...at least not quick enough to solve our immediate unemployment problems that are probably actually above the announced 10% level. 'Green jobs' that the president talks about is a fine concept but it seems to me that 'application ready' technology in most cases is not ready for wide spread general use for one reason or another. It is time to claim 'force majeure' to set aside international Free Trade agreements so we can regain control of our economy! Everyone in the media and politics talk about jobs as if they are all the same...not even close to the truth!! There are two kinds of jobs...a sustainable decent paying manufacturing related JOB that requires education (some training or significant education depending on the work level of the individual worker) or a job in the service industry that requires little or no training...to be fair some service jobs require significant training but they do not represent the majority of service jobs. Service jobs typically support one to two additional jobs. In truth the government cannot create the kind of JOBS we need...manufacturing JOBS which support up to five + additional jobs for each mfg. JOB. Buy American and you just might save YOUR job because now the domino effect is really in play...you lose one manufacturing JOB...you might lose up to 5+ more in the process!!! I think that is how the job (all jobs) loss numbers skyrocketed!! The same would work in reverse...add 200,000 manufacturing JOBS and you should get 1,000,000 jobs in total...add more and we could be on our way to a real recovery. How about something like this...nothing larger than a five gallon bucket or 10 pounds should be imported without an import duty. All machine tools should be manufactured in this country...milling machines, lathes, punch presses...etc. All TV's, computers, large electronic devices, refrigerators, washers and dryers, stoves, etc.should be manufactured in the US too. If foreign countries want to invest money to build plants here to mfg. these items ...fine..they will abide by our rules to do so. They can keep the profits...who cares...we want the JOBS. Some of the requirements would have to be would be that they cannot shut a factory down without a reasonable warning and their stock would have to be tradable on an American stock exchange. The government cannot enact import LIMITS because our biggest trading partner holds most of our debt...but we can and I believe we will have to place import duties on products to protect our economic health. As our economy tumbles down there will be fewer and fewer middle class kids able to afford college. If we don't do this kids who are not going to go to college..for whatever reason...will not have any kind of decent JOB. This is also a national security issue. There will be significant skill losses amongst a large number of people and losses in progressive manufacturing developments amongst companies. Communities are cutting back on services because of shrinking tax revenues.

August 31 2010 at 2:30 AM Report abuse +1 rate up rate down Reply
stripedbass7

Lower the Minimum wage ? It shouldve been at least $12 an hr. by now. George Bush & his 8 YEARS of AN ILL RUN COUNTRY, is what lost Jobs ! Not Obama , Nor a measly $7 an hr. Thats maybe $250 a wk. = Housing, Car ins, Gas, Food, Clothing. John mc cain & REPUBLICANS VOTED AGAINST A MINIMUM WAGE HIKE FOR 10 YEARS STRAIGHT ! THE REPUBLICANS VOTED IN FOR "THEIR" COST OF LIVING WAGES FOR 20 YEARS STRAIGHT !

August 31 2010 at 1:27 AM Report abuse -3 rate up rate down Reply
1 reply to stripedbass7's comment
ingfp

Do away with the minimum wage and let the market work. To much regulation has always stifled business growth to include wages. Ever thought of GOVERNMENT taking to much of your earnings? It is legal thievery and they know it works and keep them fat and happy. Oh, them would be the 535 wasteful pigs in DC.

August 31 2010 at 6:58 AM Report abuse +1 rate up rate down Reply
frank1946

Clinton cut taxes, slowed spending to about 2.5 % increase per yr., it worked GREAT.............so hire him to be the JOBS CZAR, this is an easy fix, just do something that is tried and tested !

August 31 2010 at 1:09 AM Report abuse rate up rate down Reply
1 reply to frank1946's comment
ingfp

Actually it was the US congress that did the good deed. It just happened to be a Republican congress.

August 31 2010 at 6:54 AM Report abuse rate up rate down Reply
dearthaircroi

I don't understand why both problems can't be taken care of at the same time.How many aids do each person in Congress need? How many billions can be saved getting rid of the wasteful expense accounts of Washington? How many government jobs do we need doing the same job or nothing at all. How many wasteful pet projects can be killed.How many more agencies do the taxpayers need to pay for? How many billions can we save by not spending all our money on other countries , most that don't give a hoot about us? Why do we need over 700 military bases in 120 countries while closing bases here at the same time. I was always under the impression that serving in Washington was doing a service for one's country. I didn't realize it was just another wasteful government position.

August 31 2010 at 12:41 AM Report abuse +3 rate up rate down Reply
npwork

Let me guess Escalonz -- you're not going to be suffering much, are you? It's easy to say fix the deficit, unless you're going to lose if that's the priority. I say spend like hell, but invest in infrastructure in the USA, the means of production for the future. If reining in deficits means unemployment, then we'll have stagnation that never ends, just like Japan. People with no jobs can't buy much of anything.

August 31 2010 at 12:39 AM Report abuse -1 rate up rate down Reply
Escalonz

NABE Economists Say Promote Growth Now, Fix Deficit Later ======================================================= Or stated in another way, "Ignore the God damn deficit and live it up now. Dare we say this is the economic formula for eventual meltdown of the most significent kind? Rogers has it right. Fix the deficit first in spite of the pain and all good things of an economic nature will follow.......like puting the horse in front of the cart?

August 31 2010 at 12:32 AM Report abuse +2 rate up rate down Reply