'Hindenburg' Omen Creator Warns of Possible 20% Stock Decline

    Posted 7:55AM 08/26/10 Posted under: People, Investing, Media, Stock Picks, Investing Basics, Stocks in the News
    Jim Miekka, deviser of the so-called "Hindenburg Omen," says that stocks could drop by 20% from their level earlier this month.

    Miekka's omen is an indicator of major stock market crashes and is named after the 1937 disaster of a passenger airship. He created it using a formula from data including 52-week stock levels and moving averages of the New York Stock Exchange.

    The indicator was triggered two weeks ago, with two more appearances this month, The Wall Street Journal says. Now, Miekka is warning of a possible 20% decline from the market level at the first triggering.

    "It's like a funnel cloud," Mr. Miekka says. "You don't get a storm with every funnel cloud, but now that we're seeing several funnel clouds, I definitely think I want to stay in the storm cellar."

    Others are more skeptical.

    "People are grasping at straws and always looking for someone who might have all the answers," Jeremy Siegel, finance professor at the University of Pennsylvania's Wharton School of Business, told The Wall Street Journal.

    Miekka publishes a newsletter called "Sudbury Bull & Bear Report." It has about 100 subscribers.


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    j0shwerk@yahoo.com

    I think that there is a self-fulfilling prophecy dynamic to this indicator, in much the same way if everyone believes a double-dip recession is coming, then it will. It's this dynamic as well as some legitimately negative news (housing, money flows) that caused me to blog this morning 'Hindenburg Omen: Myth, Reality, or Both?' on ProofTrader.

    August 26 2010 at 2:46 PM Report abuse rate up rate down Reply
    lost liberals

    JUST THE WORD OBAMA MAKES STOCK DROP 25% ADD DUMMYCRAPT TO IT IT FALL A 25% MORE GET REAL PEOPLE THE CHANGE IS NOT WORKING UNLESS YOU ARE A MUSLEM............THINK ABOUT IT IF YOU CAN.......

    August 26 2010 at 8:22 AM Report abuse rate up rate down Reply
    1 reply to lost liberals's comment
    donut999

    huh?

    August 26 2010 at 10:14 AM Report abuse rate up rate down Reply