Investment Advisers Get More Optimistic About Stocks, Jobs, Economy

Investment Advisers Get More Optimistic About Stocks, Jobs, EconomyIndependent investment advisers remain fairly bullish in their outlooks for the economy and market performance over the next sixth months, even as their clients have become more pessimistic, a recent survey has found.

Of the 1,199 independent advisers polled by discount brokerage Charles Schwab (SCHW) in its latest semiannual survey, 63% said the S&P 500 ($INX) will rise over the next six months. That's essentially unchanged from Schwab's January survey, which found that 65% of advisers expected the market to post gains.

The survey has a margin of error of 2.89% and was conducted between July 13 and July 23, when the S&P 500 stood at about 1,083, Schwab said. The market is off about 3% since the survey was conducted.

As for the bigger picture, 59% of advisers don't see a double-dip recession occurring in the U.S. during the next six months, while 28% said another recession is indeed likely to happen. The remaining 15% said a second recession was neither likely nor unlikely.

Fewer Predict Rising
Unemployment

Whatever the utility of such a survey, it appears that independent financial advisers have their work cut out for them. Nearly half say their clients are less optimistic about the market and economy than they were a year ago. Only 16% said their clients were more optimistic in their outlooks when compared with July 2009, while 35% said their clients' views remained unchanged.

Drilling down into some economic components, advisers have become more pessimistic about the state of the housing market since the beginning of the year. More than half (53%) said the housing market will continue to soften over the next six months, versus 46% who held that view January.

However, advisers have become more sanguine about the jobs outlook: Just 32% now foresee a rise in unemployment over the next six months, down from 40% in January. The majority of advisers also expect consumers to save more money, and say they see no signs of inflation. (See the chart below.)


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Alan

I lost nothing in the market. I did not and will not invest in it. I might not get rich, but I will not lose everything to this controled scam. I live well without it, not rich, but not poor either. I live within my means. Wonder why the Government can't. Could it be because they are not really on the side of the people and have a socialist agenda?? I wonder!

August 26 2010 at 2:03 PM Report abuse +1 rate up rate down Reply
zekezena

These posts are enjoyable. I am an RIA and I must tell you I really have no respect for the industry nor do I manage individual investors money I sell Hedge Fund, and PE Fund LP Interest to institutional investors. The small investor has: 1.) No chance in equities 2.) No chance in ETF's 3.) A small chance in Mutual Funds (but loads and up front fees can kill you and even if it is a no load fund you are getting feed at 2 to 5 percent annually plus 12-B fees) 4.) Will get an annuity shoved up their butt because the comissions are so incredibly high. 5.) Will never have access to hedge, pe, and mezz funds unless it is on a platform and here's a hint (The best ones are not on platforms). 6.) Will get killed, demolished, obliterated in their 401K if they do not monitor it monthly of bi-weekly. My g/f inherited some money, low 7 digits she asked my help and she insisted she pay me. So our deal is I get 15% of all gains if I exceed 7.00% annually with no monthly fees and all that crap with a clawback. Since 2008, I've exceeded our benchmark in every year. However any "sane" advisors would never agree to this. Advisors are ****** and I loathe them.............

August 26 2010 at 1:35 PM Report abuse +1 rate up rate down Reply
manitouharbor

Tell a Finacial Advisor your pay him or her 10% of your portfolio earnings instead of a fee and listen to them stumble and come up with lame excuses.

August 26 2010 at 1:16 PM Report abuse +3 rate up rate down Reply
manitouharbor

Financial Advisors get paid by FEE not performance. Win or lose your going to pay a percentage of your portfolio not a percentage of your earnings. That tells you up front the character of these people. They don't want to take the same risk as you.

August 26 2010 at 1:14 PM Report abuse +3 rate up rate down Reply
1 reply to manitouharbor's comment
Big Kahuna

"Doctors" get paid by FEE, not performance. You pay for his/her services, whether you get better or not. In fact, if you get worse, you pay him even MORE! You tell me how that's any different!

August 26 2010 at 3:06 PM Report abuse rate up rate down Reply
Gary

WHO CARES about the stock market? I CARE and most of you should too. I'm retired and most of my life savings are invested in a fund that will hopefully allow me to live at a somewhat above the starvation level. You have an IRA, an investment accout of any sort; then it's invested in stocks. The current crisis started in the 80's with a spate of deregulations and ended with Bush in around 2001 when he lifted the banking regualtions that allowed the sub-prime mortgage mess that essentially created the current recession. Get real, if the stock market crashes further, the economy only gets worse.

August 26 2010 at 1:02 PM Report abuse +1 rate up rate down Reply
KSMITHSPECTRUM

Yeah how many of us really care about the stock market. The real question is WHERE ARE THE JOBS! from 5% to 10% unemployment in 18 months thats just down right wrong. 75% of Americans feel the federal government is only out for themselves. Looks like they are right.

August 26 2010 at 12:45 PM Report abuse +1 rate up rate down Reply
wfreeberg

There is a glimmer of hope. Companies have scaled down their operating cost, salaries, beneits, etc to improve their bottom line. The companies were flying high the past few decades without much focus on the bottom line. A better bottom line provides opportunities for expansion. The market has shone continuous improvement over the past 18 months. People are beginning to spend. It takes time. Many of the unemployed are waiting for their factories to begin hiring again. This may not be the case, they may have to move to a state that has low unemployment; under 6 percent. There are a number of those states out there. It appears many are just going in circles; way toomuch motion with little movement.

August 26 2010 at 12:40 PM Report abuse +1 rate up rate down Reply
1 reply to wfreeberg's comment
prognesub

Of course that means less employed people with fewer dollars to spend in the consumer economy.

August 26 2010 at 12:47 PM Report abuse +1 rate up rate down Reply
marine1942

So, a stock broker polls other stock brokers. What a crock !!!

August 26 2010 at 12:28 PM Report abuse +5 rate up rate down Reply
bensonworks

Given the negativity regarding the economy ... it's nice to hear positive news periodically. However, my thought is this: How does the media truly get their arms around a nation that has a population of 350 million people ? How are we to believe any of the statistics that are thrown out on a daily basis in an everchanging world. I think if people would simply focus on their own situations and stop digesting all this data .. we would all be better off. Perception goes a long way ... if you panic people into not spending, the economy dives. A self fulfilling prophecy in some ways. The media plays a role in this revovery.

August 26 2010 at 12:12 PM Report abuse rate up rate down Reply
pjgblg

You know what they say about opinions! I hope they are right, but in the end, it's what the investors think.

August 26 2010 at 11:39 AM Report abuse rate up rate down Reply