Paddy Power, the famous Irish bookie operation, predicts that BP (BP) CEO Tony Hayward will be the first executive to leave the company in light of the Deepwater Horizon spill. The bookmaker puts the odds against him at 6-to-4. The bookmaker puts that odds that BP chairman Carl-Henric Svanberg is second. COO Doug Suttles is third at 9-to-4.

Paddy Power says that the next CEO of BP is likely to be Ian Conn, an executive director at BP, who is at 3-to-1 odds, followed by former BP CEO Sir John Brown 7-to-2, and Peter Mather, a BP VP at 4-to-1. Former prime minister Tony Blair is at 100-to-1.

Paddy Power takes bets on many topics, including who the next Pope will be and how often the Iceland volcano will erupt.