Greece will survive. The first debt payment in question is due in April. Before then, my guess is the other eurozone economies and the IMF will engineer a long-term loan to Greece. They have little choice: Economically, the eurozone is led by Germany and France, whose banks would suffer far worse than the entire country of Greece if it were to default. That loan will be tied to efforts such as the reduction of Greece's debt/GDP ratio, as well as heightened attempts to rein in the nation's black market economy.
Consequently, the stocks that suffered massive, somewhat irrational, sell offs in the midst of this crisis will rebound sharply. I was on CNBC the other day discussing in this, and the other guy on with me was suggesting people invest in Ukrainian bonds yielding 11%. Why get a risky 11% when you can aim for an equally risky (and yes, there is risk) gain of as much as 100% by buying the stocks below? Here are some of the Greek stocks I think are smart buys.
National Bank of Greece (NBG)
- It's current P/E ration is about 7
- It's trading around $4, down from $8 before the crisis began.
- This is the stock that is the closest proxy for conditions in Greece: If and when Greece recovers, this stock could easily bounce to $6 in a few days.
- Only about 10% of its volume is in Greece -- it serves the rest of the eurozone
- It's 23% owned by parent Coca Cola Co. (KO)
- It has an 8 P/E right now, because it was crushed along with the rest of Greece.
- People still like drinking Coca-Cola
- It's selling in the $22 range, down from the $28 range.
- It's at a 52-week low. at $6, down from $9.72
- Deutsche Telecom owns 30% of the common stock
- It has a 7.2% dividend and is trading for 7 times earnings.