Jobs for Americans: Which states will take longest to rebound?
Filed under: Economy, Electronic Arts, AMD
Unemployment, which recently hit a 26-year high of 10.2% nationwide, won't begin to show signs of improvement until the second quarter of 2010. Even then, it will take until 2013 for half the states to regain their previous peak employment levels. That's according to analysis from economic forecasting firm IHS Global Insight. IHS argues that the U.S. economy is recovering, albeit at a glacial pace. It sees Texas, Virginia, Arkansas, Montana and North and South Dakota returning to their previous peak employment levels in 2010 to 2011. Montana and the Dakotas have benefited from strong commodity and agricultural prices. They also didn't have any housing bubble to speak of.
New York, Pennsylvania and New Hampshire are among the states that will make a comeback in 2012, while California, New Jersey, North Carolina and Georgia are among those expected to recover the following year. IHS doesn't expect Connecticut, Ohio and Michigan are laggards to recover until after 2015 (see map below).
"Because the labor force will have expanded further over that time, the unemployment rate will only then edge below 8%. Ten states, including California, Illinois, Michigan, and Ohio, will still be suffering with unemployment in excess of 9%," according to IHS.
In other words, the recovery isn't going to feel like one. The official unemployment rate doesn't count people who have given up looking for work or are employed only part-time. Former Labor Secretary Robert Reich recently pegged the "unofficial" unemployment rate at as high as 20 percent.
For instance, Applied Materials (AMAT), Electronics Arts (ERTS) and Adobe Systems (ADBE) all announced layoffs this week, even as many economists continue to argue that the U.S. economy is showing signs of a rebound. But many businesses are worried that the economy remains vulnerable to additional downturns.
"Companies are waiting to see whether the recovery is taking hold before they start hiring new workers," says Dave Iaia, U.S. Regional Managing Director at IHS Global Insight, in an interview.
States such as Connecticut have been hobbled by layoffs in the aerospace sector. Michigan and Ohio are getting pummeled by the automakers' woes. Nevada's recovery has been crimped by the slowdown in the casino industry but it has great capacity to add new jobs, according to Iaia.
The line between the good times and the bad times is proving surprisingly thin. And for many states, the bad times seem likely to linger for far too long.


























Reader Comments (Page 1 of 14)
11-13-2009 @ 6:08PM
JERRY said...
Bush is gone but the his unfair trade deals live on!!!!
Reply
11-13-2009 @ 6:20PM
Bob said...
Clinton was the one who gave China permenent favored trade status. Check your facts
11-13-2009 @ 6:38PM
dan said...
When Republicans start being Teddy Roosevelt Republicans, and the corporate Democrats start being Democrats is when they start breaking up the trusts, corporations like health insurance, oil companies, box stores etc., and let free enterprise work in the US, will be the day when annual incomes start to grow with production.
By raising some of our tariffs from the ridiculously low 2% to something that will protect our new economy of industrial jobs is when we start to grow our GDP and create real jobs. When the ratio of GNP to imports and exports becomes in balance is when we will be balanced and our debt will be paid down, further and faster, due to more taxes being collected.
We cannot inflate the bubble again in the housing sector because that will lead to risky loan behavior, which is a false economy, and will lead to another recession-depression. 70% of the economy hinges on the consumer and until there are good incomes for the middle class, all bets are off for the future if we don't come up with an economic industrial plan to balance our import to export ratio.
Any folly otherwise is pure greed perpetuated by Wall Street Bankers and multinational corporations that have no allegiance to our national economic interests. By restricting the government intervention, protecting the too large to fail Wall Street banks and monopolies, foreign or domestic, keeps the status quo, making it easy for them to stay in control of America's Economy and worker incomes.
Government's job should be to keep out of the way when competition works, and inject itself when it becomes apparent that a corporation becomes too dominant, obstructing free market practices; and providing a democratic free market to protect America's interests first for national security and economic stability........
11-14-2009 @ 8:16AM
MyKisa said...
....look a bit closer and you will see....the trade deals are born in the back rooms at the central banks and think tanks...presidents (all of them) merely support them, congress enacts them
11-14-2009 @ 12:57PM
clem said...
my fellow little people, was it not just as bad for obama and his boys to say the recession is over as the bush bunch saying we weren't in one. both treasonous liars. while we got more casinos, cable sports and filling our baskets at wallmart with china junk the wealthy and big business bought congress. Guess what big business owns fox and msmbc divide and conquer, they are very good at it
11-14-2009 @ 1:25PM
betty said...
What an idiotic statement. My husbane was employed when Bush was in office. Ba-bama was in office only 4 mo and he has not job now and it's appearing he won't get one. The only president in recent yrs that SCREWED UP ROYALLY on the so called "unfair trade deals" was CLINTON when he signed off on NAFTA shutting down many factories and sending our jobs to Mexico and over seas... SHAME ON YOU
11-14-2009 @ 1:42PM
clem said...
betsy you remind me of a hannity fan
11-14-2009 @ 3:14PM
Bob said...
Jerry, it was Clinton who passed NAFTA. IT was Clinton who gave China their most favorable trade status...and renewed it when it expired.
11-14-2009 @ 5:04PM
deano said...
Stop blaming the Bush Administration for the jobs decline and the economy . Its Obama's economy and job problem now . What you need to do is educate yourself on understanding that its both the Bush and Obama Administrations that have casued this nightmare and not just one President . I am sick of hearing asswipes like you Blaming Bush for everything . I don't hear you in your replies blaming 80% of the democrat party and 40% of the repub that casue this in the first place . Obama spent 900 billion of our tax dollars and Bush spent 800 billion of our tax dollars bailing out the rich and what did you and i get from it ? Absolutly nothing so stop your bitching and blaming one over the over becasue they both are doing the same to this country and its distroying it .
11-14-2009 @ 6:15PM
Gere said...
God damn put down the koolaid son! NAFTA was Clinton's baby. Perot warned us about it in the 92 election debates. The folks who did not want to believe him because he was wealthy so they distrusted him, are the very same ones who pinned their hopes on Obama. All we have done electing this incompetent, is waste a complete year of suffering, while no real concentrated effort towards solving rising unemployment evident from the current administration in Washington DC. Now the Democrat cheerleaders at the NYT, like Paul Krugman, said we'll create jobs in late 2009, but those rosy scenarios have now been pushed back to late 2010. Last night on Charlie Rose, Mr Forbes, the second reichest investor inthe US, said he did not see things improving on employment until more likely 2 years from now. So I have to ask, how's all that change going for ya? He just personally bought BNSF railroad for a $100 billion, and put his money where his mouth was. His track record is one of the best in the business. So who ya gonna believe, him or our TOTUS Obama? Let me guess.
11-14-2009 @ 6:56PM
Mike said...
Hey Bob, news flash for you. When Clinton was in office we had a BALANCED budget (no debt). Since Bush took over we have been going down the crapper and now jomama I mean Obama is making it worse. When Clinton was in office we had never seen such prosperity. Now get ready for the firestorm.
11-14-2009 @ 8:02PM
Binky said...
Naturally the first states to rebound are RED
11-15-2009 @ 12:38PM
ronabb50 said...
You mean Bill Clintons NAFTA and GATT don't you
11-15-2009 @ 12:58PM
NikonF2-AS said...
JERRY: Bob is right, you're just pissing on yourself!
11-15-2009 @ 2:10PM
William Pazdon said...
all the trade deals and de-regulation of credit and banks are the product of bill and hillary clinton and so is the health care crisis! Hillary started her career vat walmart! The status in this country is never going to change until you stop putting tax and spend democrats like Nancy peloci in office! nothing in the stimulus is going to every day Americans ! temporary jobs temporary band aid and billions of tax money to line the pockets of all the democrats buddies IT MAKES ME SICK
11-15-2009 @ 2:20PM
Goerge said...
President George Washington on Debt
“There is no practice more dangerous than that of borrowing money; for when money can be had in this way, repayment is seldom thought of in time, the interest becomes a loss, exertions to raise it by dent of industry cease, it comes easy and is spent freely, and many things [are] indulged in that would never be thought of if [they were] to be purchased by the sweat of the brow.”
“All Tyranny needs to gain a foot hold is for people of good conscience to remain silent.”
Thomas Jefferson
11-15-2009 @ 10:11PM
troy said...
legalize weed!!! we will make Billions!!
11-13-2009 @ 6:15PM
jack said...
yes this is obamas big change we will all be out of work and broke just love this change
Reply
11-13-2009 @ 11:30PM
joanne38 said...
Our city just received over $377,000 grant for people to fix up their homes in our town. Only seven could apply for it. One was white who worked a full time job who fell just below that income level, one black didn't show up on time so he lost the chance to get it, the other five were black and on welfare on drug dealer street. How sweet is that for spending our tax dollars wisely? If it wasn't bad enough that the five are already getting money on us for them to spend on drugs, now we get to pay for them to have a brand new house. If that doesn't make you want to hide you hard earned money from the feds, I don't know what does. That is what they were talking about when they said we had to spread our wealth.
11-14-2009 @ 11:01AM
Gary said...
You are an idiot. Too much Fox News BS. If you honestly think this all happened under Obama then you have no clue. All this crap started with Reagan, along with Bush, Clinton, and the other Bush. Remember when we USED to make things here ? Go to a Costco and try to find anything made here is the US. Not a lot. All our good paying jobs are in China. You want to work for $1 a day ? I don't. We in this country deserve better. If you like the way things are good for you.