Wireless data market booms, but Clearwire may be an also-ran
Filed under: Company News, Technology, Investing, Google , Intel, Sprint Nextel Corp., AT&T, Verizon, Comcast
Wireless network operator Clearwire (CLWR) is pinning its fortunes on the booming mobile data market. But while wireless data usage grows at a blistering pace, investors should take a look a close look at how Clearwire's technology stacks up to the coming technologies from much larger rivals such as Verizon (VZ) and AT&T (T) before getting on board. "If ever there was a rising tide that is lifting all boats, this is it," Clearwire CEO William Morrow told investors after the company reported third quarter earnings on Tuesday. Adjusted earnings losses narrowed to 43 cents per share from 45 cents per share, while revenue was up 13% to $68.8 million.
Clearwire also said it had secured an additional $1.56 billion to continue its network build out from tech heavyweights like Sprint Nextel (S) – which owns a majority stake in Clearwire – Comcast (CMCSA) and Time Warner Cable (TWC). Clearwire's success is especially important for Sprint, which just said it would invest $1.2 billion of the funding and is struggling to stem losses to bigger rivals Verizon and AT&T.
Morrow said that Clearwire was in the "right place at the right time" to take advantage of the boom in wireless data usage. But investors aren't buying the upbeat posture. Shares sold off more than 15% on Wednesday to close at $6.14.
Clearwire faces a long list of challenges as it attempts to capitalize on the growing consumer shift to wireless data. And while daunting in itself, securing the additional $1.4 billion funding gap that analyst Michael Nelson at Soleil Securities estimates the company will need by 2013 may be at the bottom of the list for Clearwire.
Clearwire's 4G technology is based on a standard called WiMax. Pushed by Clearwire investor Intel (INTC), the standard is further along in the development process and generally cheaper to make devices for than that of telecom rivals. But Clearwire's service has been plagued by reports of glitches like frequent outages and slow bandwidth speeds in the cities in which it currently operates.
Telco giants Verizon and AT&T, meanwhile, are now on the cusp of rolling out their own 4G technologies based on a competing technology platform. While the Long Term Evolution platform took longer to develop, it is considered more robust and powerful than Clearwire's.
Clearwire had banked on getting into the market ahead and tying up customers of its telco rivals. But giant Verizon – largely seen as operating the best 3G network and known for spending top dollar on its networks – is getting more aggressive. Verizon is reeling from the popularity of AT&T's iPhone and has identified building out a faster network as a cornerstone of its strategy to retaliate. While Verizon was already expected to make a big push in 2010, that build out may be about to get more aggressive.
Morrow downplayed the threat from rivals, saying that Clearwire didn't have to "unseat any of the giant telcos in order to be successful."
But even some of Clearwire's savviest prior backers seem to be veering towards its telecom rivals now. Google (GOOG) – which is banking on the boom in the wireless sector to power mobile ad growth and picked up startup AdMob for $750 million this week – had put in $550 into Clearwire a year ago. But the search giant abstained from the current round despite its massive balance sheet and is instead focusing on its Droid partnership with Verizon.
So it might be a case of too little, too late for Clearwire – and that is if it manages to lineup future funding for its network built.



























Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
11-11-2009 @ 8:15PM
Jason said...
If it's too little too late for CW then it's curtains for Sprint!
Reply
11-12-2009 @ 11:44PM
Mark said...
I think that it is a little premature to talk about winners and losers? Verizon and AT&T have 0 customers on the LTE network and Clearwire is just now launching service into major metro's. Lets see how WiMax performs on a bigger stage before we rush to judgement?
Reply
11-12-2009 @ 5:08PM
DrG said...
How is LTE "more robust and more powerful" then WiMax. Is there any data to support this? As far as I know there isn't a single commercial LTE network in opperation, but there are many commercial WiMax networks up and running; so how can it be concluded that LTE is more robust. This blind faith in LTE is like some religious phenomenon.
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11-13-2009 @ 12:26AM
Paul Kapustka said...
Calling LTE "more robust and powerful" just shows the lack of knowledge and understanding encompassed within this report. Even Verizon's own CTO says WiMAX and LTE are roughly equivalent technologies; at their base they are just radio technologies that use the same base ingredient (OFDM). While it may be fair to comment on companies whose business is in better shape, when someone writes a line that says LTE "is considered more robust" without offering any attribution, facts or any other reason to back up their claim, it's a good sign to go elsewhere for your wireless market information.
May we humbly suggest: www.sidecutreports.com
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11-14-2009 @ 8:59PM
Scott said...
The clearwire roll-out has been the worst roll-out ever. Every 6 months or so, an article like this pops up somewhere and Wimax advocates carry on about expansion, which never eventuates; four years and counting now. Verizon is actually laying FIOS faster than Clearwire is installing base stations.
To begin with, the 2.5Ghz freq in the States is a ridiculous choice. It's as ridiculous as using 1900 for GSM. Put simply, a carrier will need a vast number of towers to ensure adequate coverage. The use of wimax has also had mixed results. Most of which are very disappointing. LTE on the other hand is quite promising and is being backed by the largest telecoms in the world.
I used cleawire's wimax and returned it within a week. I also used a 21mb HSDPA service abroad and can say that it makes wimax look like dialup. For anyone to suggest that a technology that is so new, it is still being fine-tuned, will not beat wimax is laughable. HSDPA+ already is and has. LTE is the next gen of that.
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11-14-2009 @ 9:04PM
Scott said...
I am actually going to bet that Clearwire will switch to LTE.
Wimax is going the way of TDMA.
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